The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since July, with gains of close to 1%. In Monday’s European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6589, down 0.07% on the day.
Bullock says inflation in good place but China a concern
RBA Governor Bullock testified before a parliamentary committee on Monday. Bullock said that inflation was in a “very good position” as higher interest rates had curbed demand. Still, she warned that there inflation risks remained on “both sides”.
Bullock was less positive about the geopolitical environment, warning that the significant change in the global trading system which had created massive uncertainty. The Reserve Bank was particularly concerned about the impact of US tariffs on China, Australia’s largest trading partner.
Bullock warned that the financial markets had not priced in the risks of the tariffs, which could affect financial stability if the the domstic economy was significantly affected by the tariffs.
The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 3.6% at next week’s meeting, after lowering rates by a quarter-point in August. The markets have priced in a 10% likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with an 86% likelihood of a cut in November.
Investors eye Fedspeak
There are no US economic releases today but investors will be keeping a close eye on Fedspeak, with five FOMC members scheduled to deliver public remarks. New Fed Governor MIran, who voted for a 50-bp cut at the September 17 meeting, is expected to give a detailed explanation of his view in today’s speech.
At last week’s meeting, the Fed signaled that more rate cuts were coming and the markets have priced in an October cut at 90%, according to CME’s FedWatch. The Fed appears to have shifted to a more dovish stance after maintaining rates since December 2024 until lowering rates last week.
AUD/USD Technical
- AUDUSD tested support at 0.6589 and 0.6580 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6567
- There is resistance at 0.6602 and 0.6611
AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 21, 2025
