GBP/AUD will be a pair to watch this week as a string of key economic releases from both the U.K. and Australia promise to inject volatility. There will be RBA meeting minutes and U.K. labor market data on Tuesday, followed by Australian employment and U.K. GDP figures on Thursday. The cross has already shown renewed strength, rebounding firmly after a period of weakness, and traders are positioning for fresh direction from the incoming data.
Australian Dollar endured a setback late last week after the U.S.–China trade war flared up again, sending risk sentiment tumbling. Yet, the currency has stabilized on Monday, suggesting that markets are refocusing on domestic fundamentals rather than external shocks. Attention now turns to whether the RBA’s November policy meeting will bring another rate cut, a decision clouded by conflicting economic signals.
Recent data indicate that Australia’s economy is regaining momentum, supported by stronger consumer spending and rising house prices. However, this recovery has been accompanied by slower employment growth and upside surprises in inflation, leaving the RBA in a delicate position. Policymakers must weigh whether the rebound is sustainable enough to delay further easing, or if lingering labor market slack warrants additional stimulus. Tomorrow’s employment report and the Q3 CPI later in the month could tip the balance either way.
In the U.K., the policy outlook is equally nuanced. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee remains split, though the hawkish voices have grown louder in recent weeks. Chief Economist Huw Pill underscored that monetary policy should stay “resolutely focused on price stability,” while MPC member Catherine Mann argued for keeping rates restrictive despite weak consumption, warning that high inflation continues to weigh heavily on households.
Still, policymakers have stressed that their stance will remain data-dependent, placing a spotlight on Tuesday’s labor data—particularly wage growth—as a key input ahead of the next meeting. A firmer set of figures could reinforce the BoE’s cautious approach toward easing, lending further support to Sterling against the Aussie.
Technically, GBP/AUD’s rebound and break of 2.0549 resistance suggests that a short term bottom was already formed at 2.0240, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. It’s also possibly that fall from 2.6143 (April high) has completed as a three-wave correction after hitting 61.8% projection of 2.1643 to 2.0478 from 2.1003 at 2.0283. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 2.0240 support holds. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 2.0524) will affirm this bullish case, and target 2.1003 resistance for confirmation.
