Summary
United States: The Rate Outlook Just Got Cloudier
- Data remain relatively scarce on day 31 of the government shutdown. Consumer perceptions of the labor market are very weak, and home sales appear to have stalled. The FOMC instituted another 25 bps rate cut, but Powell raised the bar for future easing.
- Next week: ISM Manufacturing (Mon.), ISM Services (Wed.), Consumer Credit (Fri.)
International: G10 Central Banks Navigate a Foggy Outlook
- This week’s monetary policy decisions came from several key G10 central banks. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to 2.25%, while both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan held rates steady. Elsewhere, China’s October PMI surveys came in weaker than expected.
- Next week: Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Rate (Tue.), Bank of England Policy Rate (Thu.), Banxico Policy Rate (Thu.)
Interest Rate Watch: Another Risk-Management Cut, but December Looms Large
- The FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% at the conclusion of its October meeting. Yet, Chair Powell made clear that additional easing in December is far from assured.
Topic of the Week: Government Shutdown Disrupting Welfare Programs
- The government shutdown is now approaching its fifth week. As funding for certain parts of the government has begun to run dry, welfare programs are soon to be affected.
