Central Bank Views
ECB Preview – ECB to Convince Market Low Interest Rate Still Necessary Despite Rising Inflation
The surge in electricity price has haunted the Eurozone since the last ECB meeting. Meanwhile, heightened inflation expectations have moved forward market pricing of the first post-pandemic rate hike to end-2022, significantly ahead of the central bank’s estimate. We expect policymakers to make use of the October meeting to...
BoC Preview – Further QE Tapering
As further QE tapering to CAD 1B/week has been fully priced in, the focus of this week’s BOC meeting is the forward guidance on rate hike. The market has priced in 3 rate hikes in 2022. We expect the central bank to maintain the guidance that a rate hike...
FOMC Minutes: QE Tapering can Come in As Soon As Mid-November
At the FOMC minutes for the September meeting, the members sent more hints about QE tapering. It is highly likely a formal announcement will be made in November, barring abrupt deterioration of pandemic condition and power shortage problems.
On economic developments, the Fed acknowledged that “economic activity had continued to...
RBNZ Hiked Policy Rate for First Time in 7 Years
For the first time in 7 years, the RBNZ increased the OCR by +25 bps to 0.5% in October. Policymakers pledged to tighten further in coming months as inflation pressure continues to exceed target. Policymakers remained hopeful about the economic outlook, suggesting that easing of pandemic-related restrictions could help...
RBA Affirmed No Rate Hike Until 2024, Widening Policy Divergence with Counterparts
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%, and asset purchases at AUD 4B/month, in October. Despite sharp rise in housing prices, policymakers chose to stick with ultra-easy monetary policy in order to achieve the inflation target and full employment.
The central bank remained cautiously optimistic about the economic...
RBA Preview – To Maintain Rate at Historical Low as Counterparts Begin Tightening
The RBA will maintain all monetary policy measures unchanged at next week’s meeting. That is, the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, will stay at 0.1%. Asset purchases will also be kept at a pace of AUD 4B/week. Policymakers will continue to...
RBNZ Preview – Rate Hike Cycle Begins
The RBNZ is almost certain to raise the OCR by +25 bps to 0.5% next week. The Funding-For-Lending program (FLP) will stay unchanged at NZ$28B. This should not be affected by the slowdown in economic activities in the third quarter. While cautioning about the uncertainty of the pandemic and...
BOE Downgraded Short-Term Growth, but Turned Slightly More Hawkish about Tightening
The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate at 0.1% at the September meeting. The members voted 7-2 to keep the QE program at 895B pound. Deputy governor Dave Ramsden and external member Michael Saunders favored lowering the amount of asset purchase to 840B pound. Policymakers warned that...
FOMC Review: Tapering will Start “Soon” while First Rate Hike may Come in as Soon as 2022
The Fed turned more hawkish in September, with the first rate hike pushed forward to 2022. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that QE tapering will come “soon”. The staff downgraded the GDP growth forecast for this year, but revised higher that for 2022 and 2023. Inflation projections were revised...
BOE Preview – How will New Members Shift the Views of Rate Hike Conditions?
Economic developments since the last meeting have raised concerns of "stagflation" in the UK, i.e. slow growth with strong inflation. As the main constraint to growth is supply chain, we do not expect this to derail BOE's monetary policy stance. We expect the central bank to vote unanimously to...
FOMC Preview: Fed to Affirm Tapering Could Come This Year. Focus Turns to Dot Plot
Since the Jackson Hole symposium and the FOMC minutes, the pandemic has worsened in the US, while economic growth appears to be losing steam. These suggest that all monetary policy measures will stay unchanged with asset purchases staying at US$120B per month and the Fed funds rate target at...
ECB to Slow Asset Purchases via PEPP. Growth and Inflation Outlook Upgraded
Two important messages delivered at the ECB meetings are: 1) the end of the front-loading of PEPP asset purchases and 2) acknowledgement of a more persistent inflation pressure. The policy rates were all kept unchanged with the main refi rate, the marginal lending rate and the deposit rate staying...
BOC Stood Pat but Delivered Cautiously Optimistic Message
The loonie recovered modestly after the BOC meeting. As widely expected, policymakers left the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% and QE purchases at CAD 2B/ week. Yet, they remained cautiously optimistic over the medium term economic outlook, despite disappointing GDP data in 2Q21 and July. We expect the central...
BOC Preview – QE Tapering to Pause as Economy Contracted in 2Q21
Torn between disappointing economic activities but rising inflation, higher vaccination rate but worsening Delta outbreak, and a federal election just 12 days after this week’s meeting, the BOC will likely stand on the sideline this month. Policymakers will keep its weekly asset purchases unchanged at CAD 2B/ week and...
RBA Adopts Dovish Tapering as Delta Outbreak Expected to Hurt Growth in 3Q
At the September meeting, the RBA decided to reduce QE asset purchases to AUD 4B/week, from ADU 5B/ week previously. It also left the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, unchanged at 0.1%. The central bank did include a dovish twist, signaling...
ECB Preview – Time to Lower Asset Purchases?
The pace of asset purchases in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in 4Q21 is the focus of this week’s ECB meeting. Following hawkish comments from some council members, especially chief economist Philiip Lane, hopes that an announcement related to reduction in purchases would be made at the upcoming...
RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged Amidst Latest Lockdown. Hawkishness Maintained
To everyone’s surprise, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% in August. The decision was made in light of the renewed New Zealand’s lockdown after a report of one coronavirus case. Policymakers, however, maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that the next policy decision would be tightening. Meanwhile, the...
RBNZ Preview – Raising Rate as Least Regrets Option
The market has priced in a 25 bps hike, bringing the OCR to 0.5%, at this week’s RBNZ meeting. Much stronger-than-expected economic recovery since the last meeting, the rapidly rising inflation and inflation expectations, and a better job market are the key reasons for the rate increase. Signs of...
BOE Signals Earlier Unwinding of Balance Sheet. Modest Tightening On the Way
The BOE voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.1%, and 7-1 to leave purchases of government bond at 875B pound. While the latter decision came less hawkish than we had anticipated (we expected 2 dissents), British pound got a boost as policymakers hinted about “modest tightening”.
Upgrading Inflation Forecast
The...
BOE Preview – Awaiting Signals to Exit
The focus of this week's BOE is whether the result of the policy review would be revealed. In particular, whether there will be guideline on BOE's exit sequence of QE and record low policy rate. Meanwhile, economic projections in reflection of the economic developments since the June would also...