Dollar Rises Further, Gold Recovers, Stocks Pare Recent Gains
Dollar's rebound extends further today and remains firm entering into US session. Yen is following as the second strongest. Markets are paring back recent strong risk-on sentiment, on concern of near term deterioration in coronavirus spread and lockdowns. Commodity currencies are generally weakest for now, as led by Australian...
China’s Inflation Surprised to Upside in December. Outlook Moderates amidst Fall in Pork Price
China’s inflation surprised to the upside in December. Thanks to food price, headline CPI improved to +0.2% y/y in December, compared to deflation of -0.5% a month ago. Food inflation rebounded to +1.2% y/y, after contracting -2% a month ago, as pork price deflation narrowed to -1.3% from November’s...
Dollar Continues to Rebound, Coronavirus Worries Might be Coming Back
Dollar trades generally higher today as rebound continues. Yen and Swiss Franc are following as the next strongest so far. Commodity currencies are generally lower as led by Australian Dollar. The picture might imply risk aversion but there is no clear selloff in Asian markets. At the time of...
Dollar Relatively Resilient in Strong Risk-on Market, Setting the Base for a Rebound?
Global investors were all in risk seeking mode in the first full week of 2021. That came despite all the headlines of surges in coronavirus infection and death, return to strict lockdowns, chaos in Washington and Joe Biden's certification as US President-Elect. Dollar didn't perform too well but there...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Started 2021 with More Selling
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 5, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +395 contracts to 14 952. Speculative long positions climbed higher, by +279 contracts, and short positions increased +788 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold and Silver Prices Corrected Sharply on Profit-taking
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 5, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +6 918 contracts to 518 649 for the week. Speculative long position jumped +28 438 contracts, while shorts rose +21 520 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Weakens Against on Job Contraction, Downside Limited So Far
Dollar appears to be turning weaker again after non-farm payroll report showed the first contraction since April. Euro is currently following as second weakest for the than, than Canadian, which was also weighed down by employment data. On the other hand, Sterling is starting to reverse some of this...
Dollar Recovers Despite Strong Risk-on Markets, More Rebound after NFP?
Asian markets are staying in full risk on mode, except China, following the record runs in US overnight. However, this time, Dollar is not facing much selling pressure, but recovered instead. The reflation trade and strong rally in treasury yield might finally start to give the greenback a floor....
Dollar Recovering But No Follow Through Buying Seen Yet
Dollar extends recovery in European but there appears to be no follow through buying so far. It remains one of the weakest for the week, together with Yen and Sterling. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are paring some of this week's gains too. The US Senate and House certified...
Dollar Down Trend Continues as DOW Hit Record, Yen Weaker on Yields
Dollar is recovering mildly today but remains one of the weakest for the week, together with Yen and Sterling. Solid risk appetite, with DOW closing strongly at new record overnight, is keeping the greenback and Yen pressured. Yen appears to be slightly weaker with the sharp rally in treasury...
US Crude Inventory Declined, While Petroleum Stockpiles Soared
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -1.66 mmb to 1343.7 mmb in the week ended January 1. Crude oil inventory fell -8.01 mmb (consensus: -2.13 mmb) to 485.46 mmb. Stockpile decreased in ALL 5...
Focus Turns to Yen Selling as Treasury Yields Surge
Yen selling takes center stage today, following strong rise in global treasury yields. In particular, US 10-year yield is trading at 0.99 at the time of writing, after hitting 1.037 earlier. Dollar remains generally pressured, and even the recovery against Yen is weak. The surprised contraction in ADP employment...
Aussie to Gain Further from Global Reflation Theme, Limited Impact from China’s Boycott
The global reflation theme of 2021 should continue to support AUDUSD. With the cash rate at the effective lower bound, RBA also extended asset purchases worth of AUD100B until mid-2021. Yet, it appears that there is little the central bank can do to curb the currency strength. Risks from...
Dollar Declines Further, Oil Up on Production Cuts
Dollar's decline resumed overnight and stays soft in Asian session today. Though, intensity of the selloff remains relatively weak. FOMC minutes is a feature today but that's unlikely to provide any inspiration for the greenback. Sterling is indeed still the worst performing one for the week for now, as...
Dollar Weakens in Quiet Markets, But Holding in Range
Dollar weakens again in rather quiet markets today. But there is no committed selling so far, as the greenback is staying inside yesterday's range. European majors also soften, on lockdown concerns, and shrug of solid German economic data. Commodity currencies are stronger in general, even though risk markets are...
Sterling Down on Lockdown, Dollar Mixed Despite Stocks Selloff
Sterling is currently trading as one of the weakest, as weighed down by the return to tough nationwide lockdown. Selloff in the Pound in crosses is keeping Euro and Swiss Franc afloat. Dollar attempted a rebound overnight, with the pull back in stocks. But there is apparently no follow...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Decline in Net Length Seen in Both Crude Oil and Gold as Traders Took Profit at Year-End
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 29, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -13 971 contracts to 511 731 for the week. Speculative long position fell -9 904 contracts, while shorts gained +4 067 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Finished 2020 in Net Short, Losing 6%
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 29, NET SHORT of USD Index futures slipped -318 contracts to 14 557. Speculative long positions gained +1 106 contracts and short positions added +788 contracts. USD Index dropped about -6% last year. Concerning European...
Dollar Breaking Down as Euro and Gold Jump
Dollar's selloff intensifies somewhat today, with solid risk appetite in the background. Though, Sterling is slightly weaker entering into US session. On the other hand, Euro and Swiss Franc are the strongest for now. Commodity currencies are also struggling to pick up buying despite rally in oil prices and...
JPY to Continue Grind against USD on Policy Convergence, Reduced Capital Outflow and Current Account Surplus
Japanese yen gained +5% against US dollar last year. The strength was only modest, compared with about +9% gains of AUD, EUR and CHF. Notwithstanding the lackluster improvement in Japan’s inflation outlook and exhaustion of BOJ’s stimulus, we expect Japanese yen to extend its modest gain against the greenback...