Sun, Sep 22, 2019 @ 05:55 GMT
Dollar trades broadly lower as results of US mid-term election kick in. At the time of writing, Democrats already claimed victory of 163 seats in the House while Republicans got 159 seats. And the Democrats have already achieved a...
Dollar is steady in early US session and is little affected by job data miss. The ADP employment report showed 178k growth in private sector jobs in July, below expectation of 190k. DOW futures also stay steady and the index could have a go at 22000 handle today as recent rally extends. Non-farm payroll to be released on Friday is a key event to watch. And it's expected to show 180k growth overall in July.
Dollar is mild pressure against European majors in early US session after weaker than expected growth data. Q1 GDP in US grew 0.7% annualized, sharply lower than prior quarter's 2.1% and missed expectation of 1.1%. While it's common to have a soft first quarter in recent years, the miss could prompt some adjustment in market's expectation on overall growth for the year. GDP price index, on the other hand, rose 2.3%, up from prior quarter's 2.1% and beat expectation of 2.0%. Employment cost index rose 0.8% in Q1, above expectation of 0.6%. While the greenback stays weak against European majors, in particular Sterling, it's showing some strength against Aussie and Yen and stays firm against Canadian Dollar.
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 28,  Bearish sentiment was broadly-based in the energy market. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -39 460 contracts to 438 938 for the week. Speculative...
Global markets are generally in risk-on mode today as recession fears eased mildly after improvement in Chinese manufacturing data. While sentiments remain generally positive in early US session, there is a slight bit of cautiousness after disappointment retail sales...
Euro and Sterling trade notably lower today as economic data missed expectation. Sterling remains relatively firm and stays as the strongest major currency for the week. The CPI miss was just 0.1% yoy, and Brexit transition deal should still...
Japanese Yen is trying to recover in Asian session today but remains the weakest one for the week. Risk appetites have been be strong as risk of trade war is shrugged off by investors. DOW rose 346.41 pts or...
Movements in the forex markets are not too decisive for the moment. Sterling made a bull run yesterday but there was no follow through buying. GBP/JPY is staying below 1.3929 near term resistance despite the rally attempt. GBP/JP's recovery...
Dollar remains in red for the week, except versus Yen and Canadian Dollar, as markets await Donald Trump's inauguration. Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin had sent USD higher. As he suggested, USD's "long-term strength, over long periods of time, is important". He added that "the US currency has been the most attractive currency to be in for very, very long periods of time. I think that it's important". Regarding President-elect Donald Trump's recent statement that the greenback was too strong, Mnuchin clarified that "when the president-elect made a comment on the US currency, it wasn't meant to be a long-term comment".
Dollar is trading as the strongest one for the week. The greenback was lifted by talks that John Taylor is considered a hawk and has impressed US President Donald Trump in Fed chair interview. But momentum in the greenback is rather weak as it struggled to extend gains in late US session. Dollar was also weighed down mildly by falling yields, with 10 year yield closed down -0.09 at 2.298. Sterling is extending this week's decline as markets are reassessing the dovish possibilities of November BoE meeting. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar rebounded as NAFTA negotiation is extended. UK job data will be the main focus today. Markets will also keep an eye on Chinese Communist Party Congress in Beijing.
BOE is almost certain to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in the May meeting. Weakness in PMI data released last week aggravated concerns that recent the moderation in economic activities might persist. Doubts have arisen that whether...
While the initial selloff in US stocks were steep, they quickly recovered and didn't look back. DOW made a massive 700 pts come back from session low at 2523.16 to close at 24264.30, up 230.94 pts or 0.96%. Nikkei...
Yen weakens broadly as concerns over North Korea tensions continue. Japan Finance Minister spoke in a conference in California, US, yesterday. He warned that while yen is always "said to be a safe-haven currency", the situation in North Korea made it "extremely unstable". And he emphasized that "we should always think about what the yen would be like if something happens in North Korea." Regarding trade relationship, Aso said Japan and 10 other countries should push ahead with the Trans-Pacific Partnership with the involvement of the US. But he is optimistic that US will eventually find it better to rejoin. He said that "it's not a fact that the U.S. will be able to gain more from bilateral framework than TPP." The Japanese currency is also weighed down by renewed strength in US treasury yields. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said yesterday that ultra-long bonds are "something that could absolutely make sense for us at Treasury."
Risk sentiments continued to recover last week as Fed officials indicated they would be patient before making the next rate move. Positive developments of US-China trade talks also helped. One notable development was the rebound in US treasury yields...
Risk appetite is striking a come back as another week starts, lifted by China's measure to lower lending rates. Though, the response in the currency markets is rather muted. For the moment, major pairs and crosses are stuck inside...
Yen was sold off sharply overnight after stronger than expected US producer price inflation data. Selling continues in Asian session as risk aversion receded. The impact of US-China trade war escalation on the markets was brief and limited. Most...
The markets trade in mild risk aversion today and the sentiments sent Yen broadly higher. Meanwhile, Dollar regains some ground from Friday's profit taking pull back. The greenback stays supported by firm expectation of a March Fed hike. Nonetheless, the moves in the forex markets are relatively limited. Politics has been a stronger drive in the forex markets, as well as others since late last year. This view is shared by the BIS too as seen in it's quarterly report. For the moment, US fiscal policies, French elections, Brexit negotiations, as well as some geopolitical development like North Korea's firing of missiles will stay as important market drivers. Dollar will look into Friday's job report for sealing the case for a Fed hike..
Dollar overtakes Yen as the strongest current for the week as buying merges today. Overnight's rebound in treasury yield gives the greenback a helping hand. 10 year yield gained 0.035 to close the regular session at 2.928 and it...
The ECB meeting evolved as we had expected: more dovish, downgraded assessment on economy, leaving unchanged the forward guidance on interest rates. the central bank has acknowledged that the uncertainties in the global economy have intensified and can persist...
Dollar tumbles overnight as November FOMC minutes should some members are concerned with weaker inflation. December hike is still the base case but there might be growing doubts on whether there will be three more hikes next year. Euro closely follow Dollar as the second weakest on political uncertainties in Germany. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are supported by this week's rebound in commodity prices. ECB monetary policy accounts, Eurozone PMIs are the main focus in European session today. Canada will release retail sales while US will be on holiday.
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