Sterling Turning Weaker in Crosses, Dollar Lacks Clear Direction
Trading in the Asian markets is relatively subdued again. Asian stocks are mixed even though DOW and S&P 500 rose to new record highs overnight. Dollar continues to fail to find a committed direction. While the greenback remains firm against Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen, it clearly lacks upside...
Dollar Regains Some Ground after PPI and Jobless Claims, Staying in Range
Dollar is trying to regain some ground in early US session after stronger than expected PPI. Both initial and continuing jobless claims also continued to trend lower. The greenback is followed by Euro and Yen while Aussie and Kiwi are softest. Though, major pairs and crosses are staying inside...
Crude Oil Price Recovered as US Inventory Resumed Decline. Outlook Remains Masked by Delta
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slipped -0.14 mmb to 1267.52 mmb in the week ended August 6. Crude oil inventory resumed decline, falling-0.45 mmb (consensus: -1.27 mmb) to 438.78 mmb. Stockpile decreased in PADD...
Dollar Retreats as EUR/USD Tests 1.7 Support
The forex markets are generally trading in very tight range in Asian session. While DOW surged to new record high overnight, Asian indexes are just mixed. Dollar started a pull back but there is no clear follow through selling so far. At the same time, commodity currencies are generally...
Dollar Paring Gains after CPI Release, Commodity Currencies Jump with Stock Futures
Dollar drops notably in early US session after consumer inflation data. Headline CPI was steady while core CPI slowed a little. At least, inflation hasn't been worsening from Fed's "transitory rhetoric". US stock futures also jump, probably on reduced concerns over monetary tightening. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are...
Dollar Rally in Force as Focus Turns to CPI
Dollar's rally continues in Asian session today, in particular against Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen. Though, cautious comments from Fed Evans is not giving any particular boost elsewhere. Commodity currencies are still resilient, as supported by overall optimistic sentiment, with DOW closing at new record high. Main focus will...
Volatile Gold Price will Remain be Driven by Speculations of Fed’s Tapering
Gold trading is slim after Monday’s sharp selloff. Despite concerns over the delta variant, the precious metals lost their safe haven appeal as speculations over Fed’s early tapering escalated after the strong nonfarm payolls data. The front-month Comex gold contract slumped to a 4-month low of 1677.9 before settling...
Euro Falls after Sharp Fall in Economic Sentiment, Accelerating Lower
Euro falls broadly today after data showed surprised sharp fall in Germany and Eurozone economic sentiment. But at this point, Swiss Franc is even worse, while Yen is not far behind. On the other hand, Sterling and commodity currencies are trading generally higher, which much help from crosses. Dollar...
Dollar Extended Rally Tapering Talks, Staying Firm
Dollar's rally continued last week as supported by hawkish comments from Fed officials. Expectations for tapering this fall continued to build up. Swiss Franc is trading broadly lower, as the pull back against Euro accelerated. Meanwhile, Australian is also trading lower on poor business confidence data. Focus will turn...
Dollar Digesting Gains Awaiting Fed Speaks, Markets Turned Mixed
Overall markets are mixed today, as Dollar is digesting some of last week's gains, awaiting more guidance from FOMC members regarding tapering. New Zealand and Canadian Dollar are the stronger ones for now. But Australian Dollar is among the weakest together with Euro and Swiss France. Yen and Sterling...
China’s Mild Inflation Paves Way for Further PBOC Easing
Headline CPI eased to +1% y/y in July from +1.1% a month ago. From a month ago, inflation rose +5.3%, compared with +1.8% in June. This suggests that the slowdown in the year-over-year data was mainly due to high base. Food inflation contracted -3.7% y/y, after dropping -1.7% in...
Gold Smashed in Ultra Thin Trading, Dollar Slightly Firmer
While the currency markets are rather quite, big surprise is found in gold price, which smashed to as low as 1684, hitting the lowest level since March. Silver also tumbled to as an eight-month low of 22.5. The move was, for certain, exaggerated by the ultra thin Asian morning....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Expect GBP Futures to Return to Net Long after Hawkish BOE
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 3, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +2 340 contracts to 18 881. Speculative long positions added +1 703 contracts while shorts decreased -637 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Sharply Trimmed Bets on Higher Crude Price
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 3. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -19 237 contracts to 430 527 for the week. Speculative long position declined -17 941 contracts, while shorts increased +1 296 contracts. Net length of WTI crude oil...
Dollar Turned Around While Tapering Talks Heated Up Again
Dollar soared towards the end of the week as the stellar job report should give Fed much confidence to start tapering later in the year. Reactions from stock markets and yields were also positive, with DOW and S&P closing at new records while 10-year yield rebounded. Together with the...
Dollar Jumps as NFP Grew 943k, EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.175 Support
Dollar jumps sharply in early US session after stronger than expected non-farm payroll data. If job growth could sustain at current page in August, more FOMC members would be ready to call for tapering in Q4. Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen are the most responsive to Dollar buying so...
Crude Oil Prone to Record First Fall in 3 Weeks on Delta Variant, China Slowdown and OPEC+’s Deal
Despite recovery, crude oil prices are prone to record the first decline in 3 weeks. The sharp selloff earlier in the week is a result of a confluence of factors including resurgence of the pandemic in the US and China, China’s economic slowdown and OPEC+’s plan to increase output.
The...
Dollar Extending Recovery ahead of Job Data, Aussie Lower on RBA
Dollar is trying to extend this week's recovery in Asian session, as focus turns to non-farm payrolls reports. Whether Fed would start tapering asset purchases by the end of the year, or earlier, would very much depend on the job data in Q3. Elsewhere, Aussie is trading a touch...
BOE Signals Earlier Unwinding of Balance Sheet. Modest Tightening On the Way
The BOE voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.1%, and 7-1 to leave purchases of government bond at 875B pound. While the latter decision came less hawkish than we had anticipated (we expected 2 dissents), British pound got a boost as policymakers hinted about “modest tightening”.
Upgrading Inflation Forecast
The...
Sterling Lifted Slightly after BoE, But Overall Markets Tread Water
Sterling was lifted very briefly after BoE policy decision, but there was again no follow through buying. Dollar also pays little attention to jobless claims. Overall, the markets are staying in consolidative mode, and would probably stay so before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report. As of now, Kiwi is the...