CFTC Commitments of Traders – British Pound Futures Positions Returned to NET LENGTH for First Time since April
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 24. NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +1 535 contracts to 13 231. Speculative long positions added +990 contracts and short positions dropped -545 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures rose +7...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on USD Index Futures Halved on Improved Risk Appetite
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 17. NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -10 565 contracts to 11 696. Speculative long positions fell -7 706 contracts and short positions gained +2 859 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of GBP Declined Sharply as Brexit Uncertainty Diminished
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 10. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -1 616 contracts to 22 261. Speculative long positions slipped -428 contracts and short positions addd +1 188 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures fell...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Commodity Currencies Gained Support while Safe-Haven Currencies Lost Ground
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 3. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -261 contracts to 23 877. Speculative long positions added +1 949 contracts and short positions gained +2 210 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures rose...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Selling Pressure in GBP Increased as Elections Approach
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 26. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -487 contracts to 24 138. Speculative long positions fell -2 276 contracts and short positions dropped -1 789 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures fell...
UK Election – Conservatives Majority May Lead to Smooth, but Hard, Brexit
With UK elections approaching in two weeks’ time (December 12), opinion polls suggest that both Conservatives and Labors have consolidated support. Poll of polls indicates that support for Tories have risen to 43% as of November 26. This marks an increase of 4 percentage points from 3 weeks ago....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT in GBP Gained as Elections Approach
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 19. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -3 159 contracts to 24 625. Speculative long positions fell -2 408 contracts and short positions added +751 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures gained...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Long Bets on Safe Haven Currencies Dropped amidst Optimism over Trade Deal
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 12. NET LENGTH in USD Index slid -595 contracts to 277 84. Speculative long positions fell -1 066 contracts and short positions dropped -471 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures declined -3...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on US Dollar Trimmed on both Sides
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 5. NET LENGTH in USD Index slid -1 130 contracts to 28 379. Speculative long positions fell -2 200 contracts and short positions dropped -1 070 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Significant Decline in GBP Net Short Suggests Market Hopeful of Election Outcome
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 29 NET LENGTH in USD Index slid -1 701 contracts to 39 509. Speculative long positions fell -3 650 contracts and short positions dropped -1 949 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
Fed Signals to Pause after a Third Rate Cut
FOMC delivered a hawkish cut at the October meeting. The central bank lowered the Fed funds rate, by -25 bps, to 1.5-1.75%. Yet, the Fed removed the language that it will act to sustain expansion at the forward guidance. This appears that the Fed has prepared to pause after...
Brexit Update – Early Elections to be Held in 5 Weeks
After EU’s approval of the request to extend Article 50 for another three months (January 31, 2020), the UK parliament passed a bill calling for early elections on December 12. The market remained cautious about these moves with both sterling and euro moving in narrow ranges. The best outcome...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net LENGTH for CAD futures has More than Double amidst Narrowing Yield Spread with USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 22, NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -6 226 contracts to 31 210. Speculative long positions fell -3 455 contracts and short positions added +2771 contracts. USD fell across the board as market turned trade...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on EUR and GBP as Brexit is in Focus
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 15, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -2 423 contracts to 37 436. Speculative long positions fell -4 689 contracts and short positions slipped -2 266 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
Brexit Update – Hurdle is Still High in the Parliament
Hopes of a Brexit deal have once again lifted sterling. The latest optimism came after the “breakthrough” meeting between UK PM Boris Johnson and Irish PM Taoiseach Varadkar. The latter suggested he saw a“pathway to a deal” which could be achieved by the end of the month. Meanwhile, EU...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Both Sides for USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 8, NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -3 169 contracts to 39 859. Speculative long positions fell -3 591 contracts and short positions slipped -422 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures jumped...
Brexit Update – Johnson’s Deal Appears Unattractive to EU Members
British pound plunged on news that EU members would unlikely accept the new Withdrawal Agreement proposed by UK PM Boris Johnson. Market anxiety intensified as a report by The Times suggesting that German chancellor Angela Merkel demanded for Northern Ireland to stay in a customs union with the EU...
Taiwan’s Economy Benefits from US-China Trade War
Uncertainty about US-China trade war continues. While negotiations are schedule to resume next week, chance of reaching resolution is low. While some have warned that ‘when China sneezes, the world catches cold’, there are economies that benefit from the trade conflict. It appears that the economy of Taiwan, which...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on JPY Increased on Risk Aversion
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 1, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 089 contracts to 43 028. Speculative long positions rose +2 255 contracts and short positions added +1 166 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
Concerns over Capital Outflow in Hong Kong Exaggerated
As the anti-extradition protests enter the fourth month, the market is increasingly concerned about the liquidity and economic slowdown in Hong Kong. Goldman Sachs' report has unnerved investors about the financial stability in Hong Kong. However, we believe the worries are exaggerated. Economic slowdown, mainly driven by Chinese economic...