Swiss GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3

    Swiss GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3, matched expectations. Looking at some details, manufacturing contracted -0.2%. Construction dropped -2.2%. Finance and insurance dropped -2.1%. But trade expanded 2.3% while accommodation and food rose 2.8%.

    By expenditure approach, private consumption grew 0.7%. Equipment and software investment rose 2.1%. Exports excluding valuables rose 7.89%. But construction investment dropped -2.0%.

    Full release here.

    NZIER: RBNZ rate to peak at 5% next year

      In the November Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ projected that interest rate would peak at 5.5% while the economy would start contracting in Q2 2023 until Q1 2024.

      NZIER said it expected the negative impact of higher interest rates on demand will “become more apparent around mid-2023”. With that, RBNZ “will not need to increase interest rates by as much as it currently expects to”.

      “Nonetheless, we expect further increases in the OCR and for it to peak at 5 percent over the coming year,” NZIER added.

      Full NZIER statement here.

      Fed Barkin supportive of slower, but probably longer and potentially high tightening

        Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in an interview yesterday, “I’m very supportive of a (tightening) path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before.”

        “It is helpful to be somewhat more cautious as you are in restrictive territory,” he said. “It is a better risk-management approach.”

        “Inflation has been stubborner than I would like,” he said. “As long as inflation stays elevated, that makes the case to me that we need to do more.”

        Fed Williams: Restrictive policy to continue through at least next year

          New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday, “Inflation is far too high, and persistently high inflation undermines the ability of our economy to perform at its full potential… There is still more work to do.”

          “I do think we’re going to need to keep restrictive policy in place for some time; I would expect that to continue through at least next year,” he added.

          Nevertheless, “at some point, nominal interest rates will need to come down. Otherwise real interest rates will be going up and that would just be tightening policy further and further in terms of its effects on the economy… I do see a point, probably in 2024, that we’ll start bringing down nominal interest rates because inflation is coming down and we would want to have real interest rates appropriately positioned.”

          ECB Lagarde: Interest rates remain the main tool for fighting inflation

            ECB President Christine Lagarde told a parliamentary committee, interest rates will remain the “main tool for fighting inflation”. Meanwhile, in December, ECB will “lay out the key principles for reducing the bond holdings”. The balance sheet will be “normalized over time in a measured and predictable way.”

            “While monetary policy is geared towards bringing inflation back to our medium-term target, the economic outlook will also depend on the actions taken by other stakeholders,” she said. “In the current environment of high inflation, fiscal policy needs to be considerate to not add to inflationary pressures. Fiscal support should therefore be targeted, tailored and temporary.

            Lagarde also reiterated that “meeting-by meeting approach” and data dependence of upcoming policy decisions. “How much further we need to go, and how fast we need to get there, will be based on our updated outlook, the persistence of the shocks, the reaction of wages and inflation expectations, and on our assessment of the transmission of our policy stance,” she added.

            Full remarks here.

            ECB Knot: Risk of doing too little clearly more pronounced

              ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said, “My worry is still inflation, inflation, inflation… As long as the risks to our inflation outlook are so clearly tilted to the upside, I think the risk of us doing too little is clearly more pronounced than us doing too much… We should not give up too early and not cry victory too early.”

              Knot also said a recession is “not a foregone conclusion”. “If you look at Germany, where actually the economy is doing better than then was feared, it’s not a foregone conclusion that we will get a recession”, he said. “We will get weaker growth, that’s for sure. But we also need weaker growth to bring inflation back to target.”

              RBNZ Silk: The persistence factor of inflation was most surprising

                RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said in an interview, “What we have seen is actual inflation continue to surprise on the upside, but more importantly inflation expectations have moved higher as well… And it’s the persistence factor that has probably been the most surprising.”

                On tightening, “obviously we started way earlier than other central banks, so other central banks had to move an awful lot faster basically to play catch up,” she said. “So no, I don’t believe that the MPC has dilly-dallied around on this at all.”

                “If the information shows that we’ve reached that peak (5.5% interest rate) and we see that turn and we’re starting to see real impacts on inflation and inflation expectations, then that does offer us the opportunity to revisit,” she said.

                RBA Lowe: Best outcome is for wages to pick up but not too much further

                  RBA Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary committee that the central bank is keeping an eye on electricity prices and housing. “If we can address those two issues then that will make a substantial contribution in bringing inflation back down over the next couple of years,” he said.

                  Also, he added that a massive spike in wages would make it harder to bring inflation down. “If wage growth was 7 or 8 per cent then inflation would be 6 or 7 per cent … we were in this world in the 1970s and it worked out very badly,” Lowe said. “The best outcome for the country is for wages to pick up but to not go too much further.”

                  Australia retail sales fell -0.2% mom in Oct, first decline this year

                    Australia retail sales turnover dropped -0.2% mom to AUD 35.02B in October, much worse than expectation of 0.5% mom rise. That’s also the first monthly decline in 2022.

                    Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics said: “The October fall in retail turnover ends a run of nine straight monthly rises and suggests increased cost of living pressures including interest rate rises have started to weigh on consumer spending.”

                    “Turnover fell in all industries in October except for food retailing, which rose 0.4 per cent boosted by flood-related spending in parts of Australia and continued high food prices.”

                    Full release here.

                    China PBoC cuts RRR, USD/CNH range bound

                      China’s central bank PBoC announced to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.25%, effect December 5. That’s the second cut this year, last being in April. The move is expected to released around CNY 500B in long-term liquidity to support the economy.

                      PBoC sad in a statement the the cut is aimed at “keeping liquidity reasonably ample” and “increasing the support for the real economy.” It will also help banks support industries troubled by the pandemic.

                      USD/CNH is staying in tight range after the announcement. Current development suggests that correction from 7.3745 might have completed at 7.0191 already, ahead of 7.0000 psychological level. Sustained break of 7.1714 support turned resistance will affirm this case, and bring stronger rise back to retest 7.3745 high.

                      Germany Gfk consumer sentiment rose slightly to -40.2, but situation remains tense

                        Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment for December rose slightly from -41.9 to -40.2, better than expectation of -45.3. In November, economic expectations rose from -22.2 to -17.9. Income expectations rose from -60.5 to -54.3. Propensity to buy dropped from -17.5 to -18.6.

                        “Consumers’ long-standing fear of skyrocketing energy prices has currently eased somewhat, which is having a slightly positive impact on consumer sentiment. On the one hand, some energy prices have recently recovered a bit, and on the other hand, consumers apparently assume that the measures adopted to cap energy prices can help curb inflation, even if this may turn out to be rather modest,” explains Rolf BĂĽrkl, GfK consumer expert. “Despite the slight improvements, however, the situation remains tense.”

                        Full release here.

                        NZ retail sales volume rose 0.4% qoq in Q3, value rose 2.5% qoq

                          New Zealand retail sales volume rose 0.4% qoq to NZD 26B in Q3, slightly below expectation of 0.5% qoq. Sale value rose 2.5% qoq to NZD 30B. Comparing with Q3 2021, sales volume rose 4.9% yoy and sales value rose 15% yoy.

                          StatsNZ said, “The volume of sales in the food and beverage services industry (which includes cafes, restaurants, bars, and takeaways), increased 30 percent in the September 2022 quarter compared with the September 2021 quarter, helping to drive the rise in total retail sales.”

                          Full release here.

                          ECB accounts: Clear that rates would need to be raised further

                            In the accounts of ECB’s October 26-27 meeting, it’s noted that the 75bps rate hike was “supported by a very large majority of members” with “a few members expressed a preference” for just 50bps.

                            Still, with a 75bps hike, it was also “clear that rates would need to be raised further to reach a level that would deliver on the ECB’s 2% medium-term target”. In light of “prevailing uncertainties”, there was broad support for a “meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach” to taking monetary policy decisions.

                            Full meeting accounts here.

                            BoE Ramsden: Further increases in Bank rate are going to be required

                              BoE Governor Dave Ramsden said in a speech that regarding the immediate outlook for the economy and policy, “some near term sources of uncertainty have eased but others remain.”

                              “Because of the Government’s Energy Price Guarantee there is more certainty about the outlook for energy prices and Government policy more broadly is on a more stable and predictable footing…. The labour market remains tight and services inflation has hit 30-year highs and is contributing more to overall inflation”.

                              “I am not yet confident that domestically generated inflationary pressures from increased costs and firms’ pricing pressures are starting to ease. Encouragingly survey and market based medium term inflation expectations have fallen back from their peak, though they remain elevated.”

                              “Assuming that in the near term the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest MPR projections and given my assessment of the balance of risks, then I expect that further increases in Bank rate are going to be required to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to target.”

                              Full speech here.

                              Germany Ifo rose to 86.3, recession could prove less severe than expected

                                Germany Ifo Business Climate rose from 84.5 to 86.3 in November, above expectation of 85.0. Current Assessment Index rose from 84.2 to 93.1, below expectation of 93.6. Expectations Index rose from 75.9 to 80.0, above expectation of 77.0.

                                By sector, manufacturing rose from -15.4 to -11.7. Service rose from -8.5 to -5.4. Trade rose from -31.9 to -26.9. Construction rose from -24.0 to -21.6.

                                Ifo said, “While companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current business, pessimism regarding the coming months reduced sharply. The recession could prove less severe than many had expected.”

                                Full release here.

                                Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.4, services down to 50

                                  Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.7 to 49.4 in November, below expectation of 50.7. That’s the first contraction reading since January 2021. PMI Services dropped from 53.2 to 50.0. PMI Composite dropped from 51.8 to 48.9.

                                  Laura Denman, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                                  “Activity at Japanese private sector firms declined for the first time in three months, according to November flash PMI data. Central to the latest downturn was a poor performance at Japanese manufacturing firms. Cooling demand conditions and acute inflationary pressures reportedly continued to hamper output and new orders… Meanwhile, services firms signalled no change in activity levels from the month prior.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  RBNZ Orr: We are officially contractionary with monetary policy

                                    RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr told a parliamentary committee, “We can all put our hands on our hearts across the committee and say we are officially contractionary with our monetary policy at this point.”

                                    “We need to get actual and expected inflation down,” Orr said. “The committee agreed that we need to reach a higher level Official Cash Rate sooner than previously anticipated.”

                                    “It is the misery of inflation that is the problem here and that is the problem we are working to resolve,” Orr said.

                                    “Our biggest surprises since August has been the persistence of global inflation… and domestically we are seeing price pressure everywhere,” said Orr.

                                    BoC Macklem: We’re getting closer on rates, but not there yet

                                      BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told a parliamentary committee yesterday that the central bank is “still far from its goal” of ensuring “low, stable, predictable” inflation.

                                      “Inflation has come down in recent months, but we have yet to see a generalized decline in price pressures,” Macklem said. “This tightening phase will draw to a close. We are getting closer, but we are not there yet.”

                                      “We anticipate that (inflation) will stay quite high for the rest of this year. It will start to decline next year,” he noted.

                                      FOMC Minutes: A substantial majority judged slowing rate hikes soon appropriate

                                        The minutes of FOMC November 1-2 meeting noted, the considerations that would influence the pace of future rate hikes include “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy to date, the lags between monetary policy actions and the behavior of economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments”.

                                        “A number of participants” observed that, as monetary policy approached a stance that was “sufficiently restrictive”, it would become appropriate to slow the pace of rates increase.

                                        Also, “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate”.

                                        Full minutes here.

                                        US durable goods orders rose 1.0% mom in Oct, ex-transport orders up 0.5% mom

                                          US durable goods orders rose 1.0% mom to USD 277.4B in October, above expectation of 0.4% mom. New orders were up seven of the last eight months. Ex-transport orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 179.6B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.8 mom to USD 260.8B. Transportation equipment, up six of the last seven months, rose 2.1% mom to USD 97.8B.

                                          Full release here.