ECB Kazaks: Rate hike in July is possible and reasonable

    ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said “a rate rise in July is possible and reasonable” and “ending the Asset Purchases Programme in early July is appropriate,”

    “Markets are pricing two or three 25 basis point steps by the end of the year. I have no reason to object to this, it’s quite a reasonable view to take,” he said. “Whether it happens in July or September is not dramatically different, but I think July would be a better option.”

    ECB Lagarde: Interest rates remain the main tool for fighting inflation

      ECB President Christine Lagarde told a parliamentary committee, interest rates will remain the “main tool for fighting inflation”. Meanwhile, in December, ECB will “lay out the key principles for reducing the bond holdings”. The balance sheet will be “normalized over time in a measured and predictable way.”

      “While monetary policy is geared towards bringing inflation back to our medium-term target, the economic outlook will also depend on the actions taken by other stakeholders,” she said. “In the current environment of high inflation, fiscal policy needs to be considerate to not add to inflationary pressures. Fiscal support should therefore be targeted, tailored and temporary.

      Lagarde also reiterated that “meeting-by meeting approach” and data dependence of upcoming policy decisions. “How much further we need to go, and how fast we need to get there, will be based on our updated outlook, the persistence of the shocks, the reaction of wages and inflation expectations, and on our assessment of the transmission of our policy stance,” she added.

      Full remarks here.

      BoJ Kuroda: We won’t hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps as necessary

        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned of the “very high uncertainty” on economic outlook due to surging commodity prices. While the economy is showing some signs of weakness, overall it’s still picking up as a trend.

        “We won’t hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps as necessary,” he added, repeating that short- and long-term interest rate targets to “move at current or lower levels.”

        German CPI accelerated to 1.5%, beat expectations

          German CPI rose 0.5% mom in December, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated to 1.5% yoy, up from 1.1% yoy, beat expectation of 1.4% yoy.

          Unemployment rose 8k to 2.279m in December, more than expectation of 0k. The rise in unemployment was also the highest Since May. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, slightly above record low of 4.9% recorded earlier in 2019. Labor Office head Detlef Scheele said that “the weak economic cycle is leaving visible marks”.

          US Q3 GDP growth revised slightly up to 2.1% annualized

            According to the second estimate, US real GDP grew at annualized rate of 2.1% in Q3, comparing to Q2’s 6.7%. The upward revision from advance estimate of 2.0% primarily reflects upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment.

            Full release here.

            Fed George: Maybe we even have economic contraction to slow inflation

              Kansas City Fed President Esther George told the WSJ, “‘I have not in my 40 years with the Fed seen a time of this kind of tightening that you didn’t get some painful outcomes”.

              “I’m looking at a labor market that is so tight, I don’t know how you continue to bring this level of inflation down without having some real slowing, and maybe we even have contraction in the economy to get there.”

              ECB Lagarde: Rate hike could be a few weeks after stopping net asset purchases

                ECB President Christine Lagarde told Dutch television over the weekend, “we are going to follow the path of stopping net asset purchase. Then, sometime after that — which could be a few weeks — hike interest rates.” That’s seen as an indication that a rate hike could happen in July, after stopping asset purchases in June.

                Governing Council member Klass Knot floated the idea of a 50bps hike earlier. But Lagarde said, “it’s not something that I can tell you at this point in time.” She emphasized, “we need to make sure that this is going gradually enough so that we don’t put the break on this car that is moving. We have to lift the accelerator for sure to slow inflation but we cannot be breaking any speed.”

                Japan business conditions deteriorated sharply in Q1, no material improvement expected in Q2

                  According to the Ministry of Finance’s latest survey, business conditions in Japan deteriorated drastically in Q1. The Large manufacturing business survey index (BSI) tumbled from 21.6 to 1.6. Large non-manufacturing BSI turned negative from 6.7 to -7.4. Large all industries BSI also turned negative from 11.6 to -4.5.

                  Outlook is for Q2 is not expected to improve much, with large manufacturing, large non-manufacturing and large all industries at 2.5. Some improvements could be seen in Q3, with large manufacturing outlook at 9.3, but still way off Q4’s number. Large non-manufacturing Q3 outlook rose to 6.0. Large all industries Q3 outlook rose to 7.1.

                  Full release here.

                  China media: Xi-Trump meeting just the start of new negotiation phase

                    The official China Daily newspaper tried to talk down expectations on the upcoming Xi-Trump meeting at G20. An editorial said both parties are “in the mood for serious dialogue”. However, “the two parties’ expectations are too divergent to allow” conclusion of an agreement. It added, “more likely than not, the one-on-one meeting will end up being the start of a new phase in the negotiations with the two leaders personally setting out their country’s respective bottom lines.”

                    Separately, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reiterated the promises to open its market for foreign investors and businesses. He said today to a group of multinational executives that “China will maintain our long-standing commitment to reform and opening in order to continue to expand and open. We welcome more and more foreign investment to come to China”. “We will also relax access to even more fields to create a market-oriented, law-based internationalized business environment.”

                    Into US session: Yen & Swiss weakest as stocks rebound, Sterling down on GDP

                      Entering into US session, Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the weakest one for today on easing risk aversion. At the time of writing, major European indices are trading higher, following 1.36% gain in China SSE. Sterling also softens after poor GDP data, which showed contraction in December. 2018 overall was also the worst year in UK since 2012. But weakness in the Pound is so far limited. Meanwhile, Canadian, New Zealand and Dollar are the three strongest ones.

                      Technically, USD/CHF’s rally resumed by taking out 1.0028 and is on track to retest 1.0128 high. USD/JPY also broke out of tight range, through 110.16, to resume recent rebound. EUR/USD edges lower today and is eyeing 1.1289 support. Break there will bring retest of 1.1215 low next. AUD/USD weakens today, thanks to Dollar’s strength mainly, and it main challenge 0.7060 temporary low later in the session.

                      In European markets, currently:

                      • FTSE is up 0.77%.
                      • DAX is up 1.02%.
                      • CAC is up 1.09%.
                      • German 10-year yield is up 0.0241 at 0.114.

                      Earlier in Asia:

                      • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.71%.
                      • China Shanghai SSE was back from holiday and rose 1.36%.
                      • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.13%.
                      • Japan was on holiday today.

                      UK published Brexit white paper titled “The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union”

                        UK finally published the long awaited Brexit White Paper titled “The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union“.

                        Brexit Minister Dominic Raab said in the forward of the document that “leaving the European Union involves challenge and opportunity. We need to rise to the challenge and grasp the opportunities.” And, “this is the right approach – for both the UK and for the EU. The White Paper sets out in detail how it would work.”

                        EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted that “We will now analyze the #Brexit White Paper (with) Member States & EP, in light of #EUCO guidelines,” he tweeted, referring to the European Parliament and his own negotiating team from the European Council . He added that “EU offer = ambitious FTA + effective cooperation on wide range of issues, including a strong security partnership.” And he looked forward to negotiations with the UK next week.

                        Germany PMIs: Solid start to the second quarter.

                          Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 58.1, down from 58.2 and beat expectation of 57.5. GErmany PMI services rose to 54.1, up from 53.9 and beat expectation of 53.7. PMI compositive rose to 55.3, up from 55.1.

                          Comments from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit:

                          “Growth of Germany’s private sector steadied in April, to arrest the loss of momentum seen in February and March. With both manufacturing and services seeing slightly quicker increases in output, the data show the economy making a solid start to the second quarter.

                          “There was also a welcome pick-up in the rate of private sector job creation in April. Employment levels rose strongly on a broad-based basis by sector, albeit with the rate of hiring among manufacturers easing from the recent elevated levels.

                          “However, a further slowdown in new order growth to its weakest for over a year-and-a-half does raise some concerns. This seemed to be reflected in the survey’s measure of business confidence, which slipped further from the highs seen in 2017.”

                          BoE Cunliffe: Could see stockpiling cycle build up again in Q3 on Brexit

                            In an interview with Newcastle Journal yesterday, BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said “I haven’t picked up a strong sense that the economy is contracting and people are seeing big drops in demand”.

                            Q2 will likely be weak due to unwinding of stocks. But he added “with Q1 and the second quarter of this year, you won’t get a very accurate read on the underlying nature of the economy”.

                            Additionally, there is a Brexit “decision point” coming up on October 31. And, “we don’t know whether we’ll leave, or stay, or whether there’ll be an extension”. He added “we could see that stockpiling cycle build up again”.

                            German ZEW dropped to 39 in Nov, worries over recession

                              German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 39.0 in November, down from 56.1, slightly below expectation of 40.0. Current Situation index dropped to -64.3, down form -59.5, slightly above expectation of -65.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 32.8, down from 52.4, missed expectation of 43.3. Current Situation indicator rose slightly by 0.2 pts to -76.4.

                              ZEW President Achim Wambach: “Financial experts are concerned about the economic impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and what this will entail. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment has therefore once again significantly decreased in November, indicating a slowdown of economic recovery in Germany. There is also the additional worry that the German economy could head back into recession. According to the assertions made by the experts, neither the Brexit negotiations nor the outcome of the US presidential election currently are having an impact on the economic expectations for Germany.”

                              Full release here.

                              BoJ Adachi: Concern over spread of a new variant is increasing

                                BoJ board member Seiji Adachi said in a speech, the number of new coronavirus case in Japan is seeing “great improvement”, with weekly average decline to a “considerable extent recently”. However, “the situation warrants careful attention, as concern over the spread of a new variant is increasing at the moment.”

                                He added BoJ will “closely monitor the impact of COVID-19 and will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary, with a view to supporting firms’ ability to sustain their businesses”,

                                “If the number of COVID- 19 cases resurges and it once again becomes inevitable to have public health measures in place, for example, it could become necessary to support corporate financing.”

                                “The role of the COVID-19 Special Operations largely depends on developments relative to the pandemic, so it is necessary to assess such developments and their impact on corporate financing when deliberating on the next steps.”

                                Full speech here.

                                BCC Marshall: Messy and disorderly Brexit a flagrant dereliction of duty of MPs

                                  British Chambers of Commerce Director General Adam Marshall criticized that the uncertainty of the “Brexit black hole” is generating “a growing list of business casualties and a litany of rising costs”. He also urged MPs to do all to avoid no-deal Brexit. He said “messy and disorderly exit would not just be deeply irresponsible – it would be a flagrant dereliction of duty.”

                                  Prime Minister Theresa May is still meeting Conservative colleagues and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to seek support on her Brexit deal. House of Commons leader announced there will be another Brexit debate tomorrow, and there might be another meaningful vote.

                                  Hard-line Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg extended his support to May and urged DUP to “come over to the deal”. But DUP insisted they won’t even abstain but just reject it. Another Brexiteer Boris Johnson told Evening Standard newspaper that “May’s deal si dead”.

                                  European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas warned again that “If the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified by the end of this week, Article 50 will be extended to April 12 and it is now for the UK government to inform about how it sees the next steps.” On the indicative votes, Schinas added, “we counted eight ‘noes’ last night, now we need a ‘yes’ on the way forward.”

                                  NZD/USD extends corrective fall from 0.7463, NZD/JPY following

                                    New Zealand Dollar is leading other major currencies lower today. NZD/USD’s break of 0.7098 support indicates resumption of the decline from 0.7463. The firm break of 55 day EMA, and bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, suggest that 0.7463 is a medium term top. Fall from there is correcting whole up trend form 0.5469.

                                    Near term outlook in NZD/USD will now stays bearish as long as 0.7268 resistance holds. We’re tentatively looking at 38.2% retracement of 0.5469 to 0.7463 at 0.6701 as target of the corrective, which is inside support zone of 0.6589/0.6797.

                                    NZD/JPY also follows lower and it’s now eyeing 76.95 support. Break there will extend the correction from 79.19 lower. Nevertheless, outlook in NZD/JPY is relatively more bullish than NZD/USD. strong support could be seen from 55 day EMA (now at 76.38) to bring rebound and keep the up trend intact. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it’s already in correction to whole up trend from 59.49, which could bring deeper fall to 71.66 cluster support.

                                    Fed Kashkari: Focus on wages as best indicator on labor market tightness

                                      Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated his view that the US is not full employment yet and there is room for growth. He said “here is still slack in the labor market, and until we see wages growth really pick up I’m going to believe that there are still more Americans out there”.

                                      Thus, “I’m very focused on wages as the best indicator overall of how tight is the labor force.”

                                      Swiss CPI rose to 0.7% in March, but well off cyclical peak

                                        Swiss CPI rose 0.5% mom 0.7% yoy in March, above expectation of 0.4% mom, 0.5% yoy. The annually rate also accelerated from 0.6% yoy in February. But it’s well off cyclical peak of 1.2% yoy made in mid-2018.

                                        The FSD noted that the increase in CPI could be explained by several factors, including “rising prices for international package holidays and for air transport”. Meanwhile, “prices for fruiting vegetables and berries decreased.

                                        Full release here.

                                        ECB Simkus backs hikes of 50bps in the coming meetings

                                          ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said yesterday, “core inflation remains strong and demonstrates that the fight against inflation is not over.”

                                          “There’s a strong case for staying on the course that’s been set for the coming meetings of 50 basis-point increases. In my opinion, these 50 basis-point increases must be taken unequivocally,” he added.

                                          “Pressures in wage growth are increasing — I expect wage increases to exceed historical averages in the euro area,” he said. “It’s something that’s happening and something we need to take into account because it affects core inflation.”

                                          “It’s clear to me that the current economic environment requires us to deliver increases of 50 basis points in the coming meetings,” he said. “When we move to the more distant periods of the summer or next autumn, we need to wait and see.”