In a CNBC interview overnight, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledged, “We’re making progress on inflation, discernible progress. We need to see more of that.”

But she also highlighted the necessity of observing more concrete data to confirm that inflation is indeed on a timely path back to the desired level.

In her metaphorical reference to the “crow’s nest”, a vantage point on a ship used for spotting distant objects, Mester likened Fed’s current position.

“We’re at the crow’s nest. What does the crow’s nest let you do? It lets you look out on the horizon and see where the data is coming in, where the economy is evolving.”

As for her personal stance on the direction of monetary policy, “I haven’t assessed that yet. Where I think we are right now is we’re basically in a very good spot for policy.”

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said the US is living through “the most severe contraction in activity and surge in unemployment that we’ve seen in our lifetimes”. Unemployment rate is going to “surge to numbers that we’ve not seen probably since the 1940s.” But he’s expecting recovery to begin in H2 as his baseline forecast. Still “the course of the economy is really going to depend on the course of the virus and the mitigation efforts”.

Clarida emphasized that Fed is going to “continue to be forceful, proactive and aggressive until we’re confident that the economy is on the road to recovery, especially for Main Street”. At the same that, “fiscal policy also plays an essential role,” he said, “because the Fed has lending authority but not spending authority. We can lend money but we can’t transfer income to households and firms.”

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said it’s “reasonable” to expect the economy to return to growth in H2. But the baseline scenario “involves a lot of things going right”. Also, “the pickup in activity will likely be slow at first, because of continued social distancing and other safety precautions”. Regarding Fed’s policy, Evans believed it’s unnecessary to put stronger forward guidance because “I can’t imagine that anybody is expecting the Fed to raise the interest rates over any relevant time horizon,”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said there are “lots of difference possibilities” regarding the upcoming economic recovery. But, “in many communities the ‘V’ recovery is going to be very difficult to achieve.” “Across the country there has been a fair amount of diversity of experiences, diversity of vulnerability, and that will translate into diversity of recoveries,” he added.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she’s assuming “a slow grinding recovery persists until we have the virus fully behind us. And that’s “predicated on a vaccine that is widely available and distributed.”

At the same time, monetary policy is “in a good place”. “It is not the time to stimulate the economy aggressively and get people out in the economy because that would be unsafe,” she added.

“We are thinking hard about what does the economy need and … when can we shift gears mentally… from building a bridge to actually trying to stimulate the economy into a strong recovery,” she said. “And we are not there yet.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “if the CPI comes in showing the same kind of trending that we saw in the jobs number, that will make me have to take 25 more seriously,” regarding the rate hike in February.

But he also emphasized that “we are just going to have to hold our resolve,” and expect interest rates to rise to 5.00-5.52% range to bring inflation down. As how long he saw rates above 5%, Bostic said: “Three words: a long time.”

“I am not a pivot guy. I think we should pause and hold there, and let the policy work,” he said. The “base case” for him it no rate cuts in 2024.