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China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 51.7, restoration in the post-pandemic era

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    China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose from 48.1 to 51.7 in June, above expectation of 50.2. Caixin said production increased at quickest rate for 19 months, as total new work and export sales returned to growth. Supplier performance stabilized.

    Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Restoration in the post-pandemic era remained the focus of the current economy, yet its base was far from strong. Deteriorating household income and expectations caused by a weak labor market dampened the demand recovery. Correspondingly, supportive policies should target employees, gig workers and low-income groups impacted by the outbreaks.”

    Full release here.

    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 52.7, optimism improved

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      ActionForex.com
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      Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.7 in June, down from May’s 53.3. S&P Global said output growth slowed amid near-stagnation in new orders. Prices charged for goods rose at sharpest pace on record. Business optimism improved to three-month high.

      Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “June PMI data pointed to a softer expansion of the Japanese manufacturing sector… Panel members often commented that rising price and supply pressures amid sustained disruption and delays had held back activity in the sector… That said, the degree of optimism regarding the 12-month outlook for output strengthened to a three-month high in June… This is broadly in line with the estimate for industrial production to grow just 2% in 2022 before an acceleration in 2023.”

      Full release here.

      Japan Tankan large manufacturing index dropped to 9 in Q2

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        ActionForex.com
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        Japan Tankan survey showed that large manufacturer sentiment dropped to lowest in more than a year. But note improvement was seen in the non-manufacturing sector. Also, the strong capital expenditure plan was a big surprise, showing that corporate spending was still robust despite increasing uncertainty.

        Large manufacturing index dropped from 14 to 9 in Q2, below expectation of 13. That’s the lowest level since Q1 2021. Large manufacturing outlook improved from 9 to 10, below expectation of 14.

        Non-manufacturing index rose from 9 to 13, below expectation of 14. Non-manufacturing outlook rose from 7 to 13, below expectation of 17.

        Capex plans for big firms seen rising 18.6% yoy in fiscal 2022, well above expectation of 8.9%.

        Consumer inflation expectations rose from 1.8% to 2.4%. Three years ahead, consumer prices are expected to rise 2%, up from 1.6%.

        Australia AiG manufacturing rose to 54, exports jumped but domestic sales fell

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          ActionForex.com
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          Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing rose 1.6 pts to 54.0 in June. Looking at some details, production rose 2.4 to 54.7. Employment rose 0.8 to 51.0. New orders rose 0.7 to 55.7. Exports jumped 10.1 to 53.0. Sales dropped -2.6 to 45.0. Input prices rose 2.1 to 89.3. Selling prices rose 2.1 to 67.8. Average wages dropped -5.5 to 69.3.

          Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “Although input price pressures continued to accumulate, Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded again in June with solid increases in production and new orders and a slight lift in employment. While export sales were up, domestic sales fell reflecting the decline in consumer and business confidence in the face of concerns about inflation, interest rates and asset values. Selling prices were higher in June but by a smaller amount than input costs as less robust demand inhibited the ability of manufacturers to fully recover their higher costs in the market.”

          Full release here.

          US initial jobless claims dropped to 231k

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            ActionForex.com
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            US initial jobless claims dropped -2k to 231k in the week ending June 25, above expectation of 229k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 7.25k to 232k.

            Continuing claims dropped -3k to 1328k in the week ending June 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5.5k to 1320k.

            Full release here.

            US PCE price index unchanged at 6.3% yoy, core PCE slowed to 4.7% yoy

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              ActionForex.com
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              US personal income rose 0.5% mom, or USD 113.4B, in May, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.2% mom, or USD 32.7B.

              For the month, PCE price index rose 0.6% mom while core PCE price index rose 0.3% mom. For the 12-month period, PCE price index was unchanged at 6.3% yoy while core PCE price index slowed from 4.9% yoy to 4.7% yoy. Energy prices rose 35.8% yoy while food prices rose 11.0% yoy.

              Full release here.

              Canada GDP grew 0.3% mom in Apr, but to contract -0.2% in May

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                ActionForex.com
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                Canada GDP grew 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. Both goods-producing (+0.9%) and services-producing (+0.1%) industries were up, as 13 of 20 industrial sectors expanded.

                However, advanced information suggests that real GDP contracted -0.2% mom in May, with output down in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing and construction sectors.

                Full release here.

                Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% in May, EU unchanged at 6.1%

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  Eurozone unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% in May, better than expectation of 6.8%. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%. Eurostat estimates that 13.066m men and women in the EU, of whom 11.004m in the Eurozone , were unemployed in May

                  Full release here.

                  Swiss KOF economic barometer dropped to 96.9 in Jun, subdued outlook in upcoming months

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 97.7 to 96.9 in June, slightly above expectation of 96.8. It’s now below long-term average for the second month in a row. KOF said, “the outlook for the Swiss economy in the upcoming months therefore remains subdued.”

                    KOF added: “The downward movement of the barometer is primarily driven by bundles of indicators for foreign demand and manufacturing. Only indicators for the financial and insurance services sector and for the construction sector are at a nearly constant level. However, indicator bundles for private consumption show a slight positive trend.”

                    Full release here.

                    France consumer spending rose 0.7% mom in May, almost exclusively on manufactured goods

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      France consumer spending rose 0.7% mom in May, slightly above expectation of 0.6% mom. That’s the first increase after five months of contraction. The increase was almost exclusively due to the clear rebound in consumption of manufactured goods (+2.7% after -1.3% in April). Food consumption was stable (+0.1% after -1.2%) while energy consumption decreased significantly (-2.6% after +1.9%).

                      Full release here.

                      China PMI manufacturing rose to 50.2 in Jun, non-manufacturing up to 54.7

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                        ActionForex.com
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                        China official PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.6 to 50.2 in June., above expectation of 49.6. Sub-index for production rose to 52.8, highest since March 2021. PMI Non-Manufacturing rose from 47.8 to 54.7, above expectation of 52.5. That’s also the highest level in 13 months.

                        “Even though the manufacturing sector continued to recover this month, 49.3 percent of the companies reported orders were insufficient,” said Zhu Hong, senior statistician at NBS. “Soft market demand is still the main problem facing the manufacturing industry.”

                        New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -62.6, supply-side issues remain firms’ biggest problems

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                          ActionForex.com
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                          New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped from -55.6 to -62.6 in June. Own activity outlook dropped from -4.7 to -9.1. Investment intentions dropped from 8.6 to -3.2. Employment intentions dropped form 6.1 to 0.7. Cost expectations eased from 95.5. to 93.5. Pricing intentions rose from 71.0 to 73.7. Inflation expectations eased from 6.18 to 6.02.

                          ANZ said: ” For now, supply-side issues remain firms’ biggest problems: finding skilled labour, costs, and wages being the top three. The RBNZ needs those problems to ease, and weakening demand to move up the charts. That’s what’s required to bring inflation pressure down.

                          “Of course, weaker demand might ease the overtime, but it’s unlikely to enhance profitability. That moment of happy equilibrium between demand and supply may prove fleeting, with the RBNZ entirely willing to incur the risk of a hard landing to ensure the long-term structural health of the economy in terms of well-anchored inflation expectations.”

                          Full release here.

                          Japan industrial production dropped -7.2% mom in may, worst in two years

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                            ActionForex.com
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                            Japan industrial production dropped -7.2% mom in May, much worse than expectation of -0.3% mom. That was also the worst contraction in two years, since the -10.5% mom decline in May 2020.

                            The index of production at factories and mines stood at 88.3 against the 2015 base of 100. Index of industrial shipments dropped -4.3% mom to 89.0. Inventories dropped -0.1% mom to 98.5.

                            Nevertheless, manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to rebound 12.0% in June, followed by a 2.5% expansion in July.

                            BoE Bailey: Acting forcefully is not the only thing on the table

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                              ActionForex.com
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                              BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank has options to act “forcefully” to tackle inflation if needed. “There will be circumstances in which we will have to do more. We’re not there yet in terms of the next meeting. We’re still a month away, but that’s on the table,” Bailey said. “But, you shouldn’t assume its the only thing on the table.”

                              Bailey also noted that the UK economy was “very clear” at a turning point and starting to slow. As inflation is shifting from goods and into energy and food prices, BoE would watch the development “very, very carefully”.

                              Fed Powell: US economy well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy

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                                ActionForex.com
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                                Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a panel discussion at the ECB forum that the “the clock is kind of running on how long will you remain in a low-inflation regime … The risk is that because of the multiplicity of shocks you start to transition into a higher inflation regime and our job is to literally prevent that from happening and we will prevent that from happening,”

                                Fed’s “aim” now is to raise interest rates without trigger a recession. And, ” we believe there are pathways to achieve that”.

                                “We hope that growth will remain positive,” Powell. “Overall the US economy is well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy.”

                                Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 104 in Jun, EU down to 102.5

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
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                                  Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 105.0 to 104.0 in June. Employment Expectation Indicator dropped from 112.6 to 110.9. Economic Uncertainty Indicator rose from 23.4 to 24.8. Industry confidence rose from 6.5 to 7.4. Services confidence rose from 14.1 to 14.8. Consumer confidence dropped from -21.2 to -23.6. Retail trade confidence dropped from -4.2 to -5.1. Construction confidence dropped from 6.3 to 3.7.

                                  EU Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 104.2 to 102.5. Employment Expectation Indicator dropped from 112.2 to 110.6. Economic Uncertainty Indicator rose from 22.6 to 23.9. The ESI fell across the six largest EU economies: confidence dropped most markedly in the Netherlands (-3.6), but also in Germany (-1.9), Spain (-1.9), Poland (-1.5), France (-1.0) and Italy (-1.0).

                                  Full release here.

                                  Fed Mester: Getting interest rates up to 3-3.5% expeditiously is really important

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
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                                    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC today, “if conditions were exactly the way they were today going into that meeting (in July) — if the meeting were today — I would be advocating for 75 because I haven’t seen the kind of numbers on the inflation side that I need to see in order to think that we can go back to a 50 increase.”

                                    “I think getting interest rates up to that 3-3.5%, it’s really important that we do that, and do it expeditiously and do it consistently as we go forward, so it’s after that point where I think there is more uncertainty about how far we’ll need to go in order to rein in inflation,” she said.

                                    “At the Fed, we’re on a path now to bring our interest rates up to a more normal level and then probably a little bit higher into restrictive territory, so that we can get those inflation rates down so that we can sustain a good economy going forward,” she said. “Job one for us now is to get inflation rates under control, and I think right now that’s coloring how consumers are feeling about the economy and where it’s going.”

                                    ECB Simkus: We should move decisively toward monetary-policy normalization

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                                      ActionForex.com
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                                      ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said that by July meeting, “should see some change in the data, some change in relation to what we have seen at the beginning of June”. He added, “if we see this change in data that points to the persistence of inflation, to its acceleration, 50 basis points should be a policy option for July.”

                                      “With these levels of inflation and inflation being more and more broad-based, with wages growing in the euro area, we should move decisively toward monetary-policy normalization,” said Simkus,

                                      ECB has pre-committed to a 25bps rate hike in July. Another hike is also pre-committed for September, but the size would be dependent on incoming data.

                                      Australia retail sales rose 0.9% mom in May, higher prices added to growth

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
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                                        Australia retail sales rose 0.9% mom in May, above expectation of 0.4% mom. That’s the fifth consecutive monthly growth.

                                        Ben Dorber, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics said, “There was growth across five of the six retail industries in May as spending remained resilient. Higher prices added to the growth in retail turnover in May. This was most evident in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services and food retailing.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ Kuroda: Japan not much affected by global inflationary trend

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
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                                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “Unlike other economies, the Japanese economy has not been much affected by the global inflationary trend, so monetary policy will continue to be accommodative,” according to the recording released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

                                          After 15 years of deflation that lasted through 2013, businesses have be “very cautious” in raising prices and wages. “The economy recovered and companies recorded high profits. The labour market became quite tight. But wages didn’t increase much and prices didn’t increase much,” he added.

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