Australia business condition dropped as private sectors lose momentum, EUR/AUD resumes up rally

    Australian NAB Business Condition dropped again in May to 1, down from 3. Private sector continues to lose momentum. Goods distribution industries remain particularly weak, and manufacturing is not far behind. Business Confidence jumped from 0 to 7, in a post-election spike, as well as on RBA rate cut expectations. However, forward looking indicators suggest more weakness lies ahead.

    Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist noted “business confidence saw a sharp increase in the month following the Federal election and a confirmation from the RBA that rates would be cut in June. We think this will be a short-term spike given other forward-looking indicators saw further deterioration in the month. Forward orders declined further and in addition to being well below average are negative. Capacity utilisation has also pulled back in 2019 to date and is now a touch below average”.

    “While confidence, at least at face value was a positive outcome, business conditions deteriorated further. Trading conditions and profits are particularly weak. The employment index which we are watching closely, partially reversed some of its decline last month, but is only around average”.

    Full release here.

    EUR/AUD breached 1.6262 resistance late yesterday as rise from 1.5683 is resuming. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.5683 to 1.6262 from 1.6052 at 1.6410.

    ECB Makuch: Unguided missile Trump is the biggest threat to Eurozone economy

      ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makuch said risks to the Eurozone are broadly balanced and the central bank’s stance was correct. He added policy makers were “not underestimating the risks” but “analyzing them”. And, “based on what we know now, the development is stable, risks are balanced, with some downside risks to GDP growth.” He also noted there is no reason to “spread gloomy mood or panic”.

      Makuch also pointed out that Trump is like an “unguided missile” and the unpredictably of his policies is the biggest risks of the Eurozone economy. He noted that the erratic nature of Trump as “he says something and in the end something else happens”. Meanwhile, he played down risks from emerging markets and said the governing council sees no signs of spillover.

      Meanwhile, Makuch is considering stepping down early as head of Slovakia’s central bank. He’s term supposedly end in 2021. He noted that the elections in spring 2020 would be highly divisive. That could lead to the post being vacant for an extended period. To him, Finance Minister Peter Kazimir would be a “good governor” to replace him. He hailed that Kazimir “Ecofin deals with all important monetary issues”, so the lack of experience in central banking is not a problem.

      NIESR: UK economy to contract -25% to -30% in Q2

        NIESR projects that UK economy to contract by -25% to -30% in Q2.

        “In a period of radical uncertainty, the short-term economic impact of Covid-19 is becoming clearer with the publication of GDP data for March, where output is expected to be lower by about 25 per cent in months when the lockdown is in place. Restarting the economy by promoting activities in upstream sectors such as construction, some manufacturing and the government will increase overall activities via helpful spillovers. But without a vaccine, there is significant risk of a second wave which could trigger a further setback in the economy.” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

        Full release here.

        Chinese VP Liu wrapped first day of negotiation with a smile as new tariffs will start shortly

          Chinese Vice Premier Liu He wrapped his first day of meeting with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. After 90 minutes meeting in the USTR office, they had a dinner together. Ahead of the meeting, Liu said: “We come here this time, under pressure, which shows China’s greatest sincerity, and want to sincerely, confidently, and rationally resolve certain disagreements or differences facing China and the United States. I think there is hope,”

          Trump said he got a “beautiful letter” from Chinese President Xi Jinping and they’ “probably” speak by phone. Trump reiterated his hard line and said “Our alternative is an excellent one, it’s an alternative I’ve spoken about for years. We’ve taken well over $100 billion from China in a year.”

          For now, no phone call has been made yet, nor scheduled. White House just noted that the negotiations will continue on Friday morning in Washington. Meanwhile, the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports will be raised from 10% to 25% at 12:01am EDT (0401 GMT) today. China’s retaliations are expected to follow soon. And, the US has also started the paperwork to impose 25% tariffs on extra USD 325B in untaxed Chinese goods.

          ECB Lagarde urges common response to meet Eurozone challenges

            In the first speech as ECB President, Christine Lagarde urged Eurozone states to meet the common challenges with a “common response” of a “new European policy mix”. Monetary policy is the first element and ECB will “continue to support the economy and respond to future risks in line with our price stability mandate” and “continuously monitor the side effects”.

            Another key element is fiscal policy which is “not just about the aggregate stance of public spending, but also its composition.”. Investment is a “particularly important part” of the responses. She added that public investment in the Eurozone remains “some way below its pre-crisis levels” and the share of “productive expenditure” also dropped. Both national policies and European programs like Invest EU has a “role to play.”

            Also, “empowering our internal market also means completing our Economic and Monetary Union.” Completing EMU is about finding the right trade-off: enough protection against moral hazard to discourage under-saving, but enough mutual insurance to prevent over-saving.

            Lagarde’s full speech here.

            US ADP employment grew 807k in Dec, broad-based gains

              US ADP private employment grew 807k in December, much better than expectation of 358k. Looking at some details, small businesses added 204k jobs. Medium businesses added 214. Large businesses added 389k. By sector, goods-producing jobs grew 138k. Service-providing jobs grew 669k.

              “December’s job market strengthened as the fallout from the Delta variant faded and Omicron’s impact had yet to be seen,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Job gains were broad-based, as goods producers added the strongest reading of the year, while service providers dominated growth. December’s job growth brought the fourth quarter average to 625,000, surpassing the 514,000 average for the year. While job gains eclipsed 6 million in 2021, private sector payrolls are still nearly 4 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels.”

              Full release here.

              Trump said China will reduce and remove auto tariffs

                Just a day after the cease-fire agreement with China. Trump just tweeted that China has agreed to “reduce and remove tariffs on cars” from the US. And the current tariff is 40%.

                It’s uncertain what Trump means by “reduce and remove”. Would China just reduce but not remove the auto tariffs? Or technically speaking, is removing tariffs considered reducing tariffs too? Or China is going to reduce tariffs for some cars and remove tariffs for others? Anyway, here is Trump’s tweet.

                Twitter

                By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                Learn more

                Load tweet

                Swiss government recommends to purse business ties with Iran despite US sanctions, CHF jumps

                  The Swiss government announced today that they recommend business to continue to pursue ties despite US sanctions.

                  Fabian Maienfisch of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that “U.S. decisions on sanctions do not affect the legal situation in Switzerland with regard to Iran.” He added that “Switzerland regrets that the sanctions situation in relation to Iran is again deteriorating.”

                  He added that while the government cannot dictate responses from businesses, it “recommends that companies pursue their commercial relations with Iran and inform themselves about the situation”.

                  The news could be the drive behind Swiss Franc’s sudden surge in early US session. CHF is now trading as the strongest one for today.

                  Australia NAB business confidence rose to 2, inflationary pressures on the rise

                    Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index for July revealed an upward tick, moving from -1 in June to 2. However, Business Conditions saw a slight dip from 11 to 10. Delving into specific metrics, readings for trading conditions, profitability, and employment remained unchanged with the previous month, all settling at 16, 10, and 6 respectively.

                    Notably, the month saw a pronounced rise in price and cost growth. Labour cost growth surged to 3.7% in quarterly equivalent terms, up from June’s 2.3%, and purchase cost growth escalated to 2.6%, a jump from the previous month’s 2.2%. Furthermore, final price growth climbed to 2%, doubling June’s 1%.

                    Commenting on the findings, NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster, remarked, “Business conditions in July remained resilient and have largely held steady at above-average levels over the past few months.”

                    He added, “While business confidence rebounded to positive territory, overall confidence remains muted.”

                    Oster further noted the inflationary pressures highlighted by the survey, noting, “Despite the Q2 CPI release indicating an improvement, the survey underscores that the upward pressure on inflation remains significant.”

                    Full Australia NAB Business Confidence release here.

                    Fed Bullard: We have enough fiscal stimulus in terms of aggregate resources

                      St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Fed’s policy is “so far so good”. Negative rates are not a good option for the US and he even questioned they aren’t effect where they have been adopted. Fed would instead need to think about the way to play with QE going forward.

                      Bullard is also comfortable with the current amount of fiscal stimulus, as “in terms of the aggregate resources it seems like we should have enough” to bolster growth until Q1. He’s not expecting a surge in fatality rate of coronavirus, which the US has brought down to accidental injury level. He expected business can cope with the situation and operate safely yet succeed economically.

                      ECB Vasle: We should be very careful about second round effects

                        ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle warned that “there are early signs that in parts of the economy and certain regions, the risk regarding the labour market could become more material.”

                        “In some parts of the economy, labour is in short supply and if this trend will continue, or spread to other sectors, it could pose a risk to inflation,” he said said. “That’s why I think we should be very careful about second round effects.”

                        He also said if the trends of economic recovery continue, ” then in next March it will be appropriate to end PEPP, as announced when the programme was implemented.” But he emphasized, “even when we decide to end it, we’ll continue to provide plenty of liquidity to the economy with our other instruments.”

                        Fed stands pat, but projections two more hikes this year, on stronger growth and core inflation

                          Fed keeps interest rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. The new economic projections are rather hawkish, with 2023 median rate projections raised to 5.6% (two more 25bps hikes). GDP growth and core PCE inflation were revised higher while unemployment rate was revised lower.

                          FOMC leaves the door open for more tightening, as “the Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.:

                          Fed added that the assessments will take into account information including “readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”.

                          In the new economic projections, median federal funds rates for 2023 is raised from 5.1% to 5.6%, indicating two more 25bps hike. Median projections for 2024 was raised from 4.3% to 4.6%, for 2025 raised from 3.1% to 3.4%.

                          Regarding 2023 median economic projections, real GDP growth was raised sharply higher from 0.4% to 1.0%, unemployment rate sharply lower from 4.5% to 4.1%, core PCE inflation from 3.6% to 3.9%.

                          In the new dot plot, twelve members penciled in rate hikes to 5.50-5.75% this year, with four expecting rate at 5.25-5.50%, and only two at the current 5.00-5.25%.

                          Full FOMC statement here.

                          Full economic projections here.

                          Euro surges broadly, EURGBP upside breakout

                            Euro records broad based gains in Asian session today and is trading as the second strongest for today. It’s indeed the strongest one for the week so far. We not seeing any apparent fundamental reason of the Euro’s own for the rally. But the EUR/USD’s reject from 1.1507 support thanks to Dollar’s pullback is a factor. Sterling’s persistent weakness in worries on no-deal Brexit is another favorable factor for Euro.

                            Technically, EUR/USD’s break of 1.1610 minor resistance should indicate near term bottoming at 1.1529, ahead of 1.1507 key support. The consolidation pattern from 1.1509 is starting another rising leg. EUR/USD would be targeting 1.1745 resistance next as the pattern extends.

                            EUR/GBP also finally breaks 0.8967 key cluster resistance level. The upper channel resistance might be an obstacle for the near term. But we’d expect rise from 0.8620 to extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.9043. The rise in EUR/GBP would help support Euro elsewhere.

                            US initial jobless claims rose to 231k, continuing claims highest in nearly two years

                              US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 231k in the week ending November 11, above expectation of 222k. Four week moving average of initial claims rose 8k to 220k.

                              Continuing claims rose 32k to 1865k in the week ending November 4. That’s the highest level since November 27, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 34.5k to 1823k.

                              Full US jobless claims release here.

                              NASDAQ tumbled on Yellen’s rate remarks

                                US closed mixed overnight, but notable decline was seen in NASDAQ. The selloff came after Treasury Secretary, former Fed chair, Janet Yellen said that “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy”.

                                Nevertheless, later in the day, she clarified that she was neither predicting nor recommending a rate hike. “If anybody appreciates the independence of the Fed, I think that person is me,” she said. “I don’t think there’s going to be an inflationary problem. But if there is the Fed will be counted on to address them.”

                                NASDAQ’s strong break of 13698.66 support should confirm rejection by 14175.11. The index should now be in the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 14175.11. Deeper fall is likely back towards 12397.05 support for the near term. Still, there is no risk to the medium term up trend yet, as long as 12397.05 holds.

                                US PPI at 0.2% mom, 8.0% yoy in Oct

                                  US PPI for final demand rose 0.2% mom in October, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Prices for goods rose 0.6% mom while services dropped -0.1% mom. PPI less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.2% mom.

                                  For the 12 months period, PPI slowed from 8.4% yoy to 8.0% yoy. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.4% yoy.

                                  Full release here.

                                  New Zealand exports hit record NZD 5.7B in March, NZD/USD recovers

                                    In March in New Zealand, exports jumped 19% yoy to NZD 5.7B, hitting a record for any month. Imports, on the other hand, dropped -3.4% yoy to NZD 4.8B. Trade balance came in at a NZD 922m surplus, highest since April 2011, and beat expectation of NZD 131m.

                                    International statistics manager Tehseen Islam said, “exports to China were the leading contributor to increases in several primary sector commodities including dairy products, beef, lamb, and forestry products.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    NZD/USD recovers notably after the release. A temporary low should be formed at 0.6580, ahead of 0.6551 support. Some consolidations would be seen first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6718 resistance holds. The corrective pattern from 0.6424 low should have completed. Break of 0.6551 support will likely resume larger down trend through 0.6424 low.

                                    German industrial production dropped -1.5%, 10-yr bund yield hits new record low

                                      Germany industrial production dropped -1.5% mom in June, (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted), worse than expectation of -0.5 mom. Production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by -1.8%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by -2.0% and the production of capital goods by -1.8%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease by -1.4%. Outside industry, energy production was down by -1.6% in June 2019 and the production in construction increased by 0.3%.

                                      Full release here.

                                      German 10-year bund yield drops to new record low of -0.561 today. Euro also softens mildly, but downside is so far limited.

                                      Survation: Conservative lead over Labour rose back to 14pts

                                        According to the latest poll by Survation for ITV’s Good Morning Britain, the Conservative has widened their lead over Labour for the upcoming elections on Thursday. Headline voting intention for Conservative rose 2 pts to 45% while that for Labour dropped -2 pts to 31%, diving Conservative a 14pts lead, up from 9pts a week ago. Nevertheless, the lead was just back to the level on November 18, at 14 pts, when Conservative had 42% and Labour 28%.

                                        Brexit remains the number one issue for the vote decision for 32% of all voters, 50% current Conservative voters and 15% current Labour voters. More Labour voters are concerned with NHS as the number one issue at 26%, comparing to Conservative’s 3% and overall 14%.

                                        Twitter

                                        By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                                        Learn more

                                        Load tweet

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan BSI sentiments weakened broadly in Q1

                                          Japan business sentiments weakened generally in Q1. Large all industry index dropped to 3.3, down from 6.2. Large manufacturing index dropped to 2.9, down from 9.7. Large non-manufacturing index dropped to 3.4, down from 4.5. Outlook for Q2 showed further deterioration. But large companies are expectation a rebound in Q3. Deteriorations are also seen in sentiments of small and mid sized companies for Q1.