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US Core PCE ticks higher to 2.9%, spending stays firm in July

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    U.S. headline inflation held steady in July, with the PCE price index unchanged at 2.6% yoy. Core measure ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8%, in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis, PCE rose 0.2% mom, and core prices increased 0.3% mom, pointing to modest but persistent price pressures.

    Personal income rose 0.4% mom and spending climbed 0.5% mom, both as expected. The data suggest households remain resilient despite elevated borrowing costs, giving the Fed little urgency to accelerate easing.

    Full US personal income and outlays release here.

    ECB consumer survey shows long-term inflation anchored, growth views weaken

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      The ECB’s July Consumer Expectations Survey showed households continue to see inflation remaining above target in the near term, with 12-month expectations steady at 2.6% and three-year expectations edging higher to 2.5% from 2.4%. Five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.1% for an eighth consecutive month, underscoring anchored long-term views.

      Notably, uncertainty around one-year inflation stayed at its lowest since January 2022, with the median at 1.6%. This suggests households feel more confident about the inflation outlook, even as near-term expectations remain somewhat elevated.

      Growth and labor market expectations turned more downbeat. Economic growth was expected to contract by -1.2% over the next 12 months, compared with -1.0% in June. Unemployment expectations rose to 10.6% from 10.3%. The results highlight continued pessimism about the Eurozone’s economic prospects despite inflation stability.

      Full ECB consumer expectations survey results here.

      Tokyo CPI core eases on to 2.5% yoy, but food inflation remains stubborn

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        Japan’s Tokyo CPI slowed in August as government fuel subsidies pushed down utility bills, but stubborn food inflation kept underlying price pressures elevated. Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 2.5% yoy from 2.9% yoy, below expectations of 2.6% yoy. Headline CPI also cooled to 2.6% yoy, while the narrower core measure excluding both food and energy edged down to 3.0% yoy from 3.1% yoy.

        Food inflation, however, remained sticky. Prices of rice, coffee beans and other groceries kept food CPI ex-fresh food at 7.4% yoy, unchanged from the previous month, highlighting persistent pressure on household budgets.

        On the activity side, July industrial production dropped -1.6% mom, worse than forecasts of -1.0% mom, dragged down by a -6.7% mom slump in auto output. Manufacturers expect a rebound of 2.8% mom in August before a modest -0.3% mom dip in September.

        Retail sales disappointed, rising only 0.3% yoy against expectations of 1.8% yoy. The labor market was a bright spot, with unemployment falling to from 2.5% to 2.3%, the lowest since December 2019.

        Fed’s Waller: Time to start cutting in September, target neutral around 3%

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a 25bps cut at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, warning that waiting for further labor market deterioration would risk the Fed “falling behind the curve.” He said conditions warrant a move now to put policy on a path toward neutral.

          He placed the neutral rate near 3%, around 125–150bps below current levels. While not convinced the Fed is behind the curve yet, he emphasized that signaling a path toward neutral is a way to reassure markets that the Fed won’t let policy remain too tight for too long.

          Waller said he expects more easing over the next three to six months, “and the pace of rate cuts will be driven by the incoming data”. He left open whether that would mean “a sequence of cuts” or a more gradual adjustment with pauses. Either way, he made clear that policy should head steadily toward neutral. “It’s just a question how fast we get there,” he added.

          The stance reflects his dissent at the July 30 meeting alongside Governor Michelle Bowman. Both argued then that signs of a softening labor market were enough reason to begin easing earlier.

          US initial jobless claims fall to 229k vs exp 231k

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            US initial jobless claims fell -5k to 229k in the week ending August 23, below expectation of 231k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 228.5.

            Continuing claims fell -7k to 1954k in the week ending August 16. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 4.5k to 1956k.

            Full US jobless claims release here.

            ECB sees case for another cut but greater value in waiting for September

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              ECB’s July meeting accounts highlighted that, while current conditions remain consistent with another rate cut, policymakers see a “high option value” in waiting until September.

              Rates were judged to be in “broadly neutral territory” after eight cuts in nine meetings, financial conditions remained stable, and inflation was viewed as “in a good place” relative to the medium-term target.

              The minutes stressed that uncertainty—ranging from trade disputes to geopolitical risks—warrants patience. Holding policy steady provides time to evaluate the impact of earlier cuts and to monitor data on manufacturing, services inflation, exchange rates, and financial markets, as well as the outcome of trade negotiations.

              September was singled out as the point when fresh staff projections and new data would give a clearer reading of the economy’s underlying direction. Policymakers highlighted that this would help to resolve “counteracting forces” currently obscuring the signals.

              While some argued for “a further rate cut” given “increasing downside risks to output and inflation”, the dominant view favored patience. By waiting until September, the ECB preserves flexibility and ensures any further move is better informed by the latest evidence.

              Full ECB meeting accounts here.

              Switzerland posts 0.1% Q2 GDP growth, SECO cuts forecasts on US tariffs, rules out deep recession

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Switzerland’s economy grew just 0.1% qoq in Q2, in line with expectations, as SECO noted that the “anticipated correction” followed above-average growth earlier this year. Industrial output and exports contracted sharply, while services posted broad-based gains.

                SECO also issued an updated scenario reflecting the drag from new U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports, warning the economy is now likely to expand more slowly than previously projected.

                The Federal Government’s June forecast had already pointed to below-average growth, with GDP seen at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. The revised simulation now pegs growth at just 1.2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, citing the August introduction of higher tariffs.

                While a severe recession is not anticipated, SECO warned that the impact could be significant for exporters and certain industries exposed to U.S. demand.

                Full Swiss Q2 GDP release here.

                EUR/CHF turns lower as risk sentiment outweighs Swiss fundamentals

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Swiss Franc extended gains against Euro this week, driven primarily by risk-off sentiment. French political turmoil hit the common currency, and the scale of Franc’s move highlighted how haven demand eclipsed domestic policy and economic debates.

                  SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin’s remarks on inflation and negative rates provided some context, but they did little to alter the market narrative. Martin noted the central bank sees no risk of deflation and expects inflation to rise, while stressing that the bar for reintroducing negative rates is high.

                  Domestic developments, including the 39% U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports and today’s Q2 GDP release, carry weight in principle. But markets view these as secondary in the near term, with the real impact of tariffs unlikely to be visible until later this year.

                  Technically, this week’s extended decline in EUR/CHF suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9218 has completed with three waves up to 0.9452. That came after rejection by falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9359). Outlook is clearly still bearish. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.9265 support in the near term. Firm break there will open deeper decline, at least for a retest of 0.9204 support (2024 low).

                  NZ ANZ business confidence rises to 49.7, weak spots reinforce RBNZ’s dovish tilt

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index improved modestly in August, rising to 49.7 from 47.8. However, firms’ Own Activity Outlook slipped to 38.7 from 40.6. Sector pressures also persisted, with reported employment in construction falling sharply.

                    Inflation indicators eased further. The share of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months fell to 43%, while cost expectations edged down to 74%. One-year inflation expectations also dipped to 2.63% from 2.68%. Wage growth expectations 12 months out softened to 2.4% from 2.5%.

                    ANZ said the survey aligns with the RBNZ’s updated view that the economy requires “a little more support” to ward off downside risks. While confidence is stabilizing, the recovery will unfortunately “not come soon enough for some”.

                    Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                    Fed’s Williams sees scope for lower rates, praises Cook

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      New York Fed President John Williams said in a CNBC interview that interest rates are likely to move lower over time, though he offered no timetable for when easing might begin. He described the U.S. economy as generally strong, albeit slowing modestly, and characterized the labor market as “solid,” echoing language used by other Fed officials.

                      Williams emphasized that any decision will remain data-driven. “If things move in the way that I hope they do in terms of our maximum employment and price stability goals, then I do think it will be appropriate to move interest rates down over time,” he said. Markets continue to expect the next cut to come at the September meeting.

                      While avoiding direct comment on US President Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Williams noted her integrity and commitment to the central bank’s mission. He stressed that the Fed’s independence is vital for ensuring long-term economic and financial stability.

                      He used the moment to reaffirm the principle of central bank independence. “Independent central banks can deliver low inflation, economic and financial stability,” Williams said.

                      German Gfk consumer confidence falls to -23.6 on job fears

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment index for September dropped to -23.6 from -21.7, falling short of expectations at -21.2. It was the third consecutive monthly decline, with NIM’s Rolf Bürkl describing sentiment as “definitely in the summer slump.”

                        The key driver was a sharp fall in income expectations as worries about job security intensified. Registered unemployment remained just below three million in July, but analysts expect that mark to be breached in August. Consumers’ expectations of rising unemployment have reached their highest level of the year.

                        Full Germany Gfk consumer sentiment release here.

                        EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD extend declines, deeper losses in view

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Aussie firmed notably after July’s CPI data came in much stronger than expected. The print reinforces the case for the RBA to maintain its gradual easing pace, removing any immediate scope for a faster round of rate cuts. Aussie’s gains were evident against the Euro and Sterling, with both crosses under renewed downside pressure.

                          EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.8155 short term top extends lower. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7807. That is close to channel support (now at 1.7816), and 55 D EMA (now at 1.7841).

                          Sustained break of this cluster support zone should confirm that whole rise from 1.7245 has completed. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 should then be in its third leg. In this case, bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.7593.

                          GBP/AUD’s extended fall indicates short term topping at 2.1003 after rejection by 2.1034 resistance. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 2.1643 is still extending.

                          Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 2.0420 to 2.1003 at 2.0643 in the near term. Firm break there will target 2.0420 support and possible below.

                          Australia CPI jumps to 2.8%, highest in a year, rules out September RBA cut

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Australia’s monthly CPI spiked to 2.8% yoy in July, well above expectations of 2.3% yoy and up sharply from 1.9% yoy in June. It was the highest annual inflation rate since July 2024, breaking several months of easing price pressures. Core measures also firmed, with CPI excluding volatile items rising from 2.5% yoy to 3.2% yoy and trimmed mean jumping back from 2.1% yoy to 2.7% yoy, a pace last seen three months ago.

                            The result adds to concern that inflation is proving sticky, though July’s data, as the first month of the quarter, is skewed toward goods and offers less insight into services inflation than subsequent months.

                            For the RBA, the print is a warning sign but not a trigger for panic. Policymakers will want to wait for the full quarterly inflation update before adjusting course. Today’s data nonetheless rules out a September cut.

                            Barring a significant deterioration in the labor market or other downside shocks, the more realistic timeline for the next rate move remains November.

                            Full Australia monthly CPI release here.

                            US consumer confidence edges up to 97.4, inflation expectations rise to 6.2%

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose slightly in August, edging up to 97.4 from 97.2, beating expectations of 96.3. The modest gain masked underlying weakness, however, with Present Situation Index slipping to 131.2. Expectations Index fell to 74.8, staying well below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession ahead.

                              The details showed consumers were less upbeat about the labor market, with job availability perceptions declining for an eighth straight month. At the same time, optimism about future income faded, even as expectations for future business conditions improved modestly. The Conference Board noted that consumer confidence has effectively plateaued at recent levels.

                              Inflation expectations added a note of caution, rising to 6.2% in August from 5.7% in July after three months of declines. While still below April’s 7.0% peak, the uptick underscores persistent concerns about price pressures.

                              Full US consumer confidence release here.

                              US durable goods fall -2.8% mom, but core orders show resilience

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                U.S. durable goods orders fell -2.8% mom to USD 302.8B in July, marking the third decline in four months but performing better than forecasts of -4.0% mom. Transportation equipment, also down in three of the past four months, was the main drag, plunging -9.7% mom to USD 101.7B. Ex-defense orders also slipped -2.5% to USD 284.5B.

                                Stripping out the volatile transport sector, however, orders rose 1.1% mom to USD 201.1B, far stronger than the 0.3% mom expected. The positive core reading suggests that underlying business investment remains more stable than the headline figure implies, limiting concerns of a broader manufacturing downturn.

                                Full US durable goods orders release here.

                                Gold bounces as Trump escalates clash with Fed, but gains lack follow-through

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Gold bounced modestly this week as markets digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s unprecedented attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The move marked a sharp escalation in Trump’s long-running feud with the central bank, where he has repeatedly pressed for faster rate cuts but stopped short of threatening Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires next year.

                                  Investors interpreted the move as an effort to reshape the Fed’s balance, raising the risk of a more politically driven policy stance. That uncertainty spurred some safe-haven demand for Gold, but follow-through buying has been limited. The metal remains confined within this month’s 3,300–3,400 range.

                                  In the bigger picture, Gold has been trapped between 3,100 and 3,500 for more than three months. The long-term uptrend remains intact, but it’s unsure whether another leg down will unfold before the market finally tests resistance at the 3,500 threshold.

                                  For now, break above near-term resistance at 3,408.21 is needed to signal momentum is turning higher. Without that, Gold’s outlook stays neutral, with sideways trading likely to dominate in the days ahead.


                                  AUD/JPY’s corrective fall intact for another leg through 94.38

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    AUD/JPY dipped mildly after RBA’s August minutes affirmed that further easing is likely over the coming year. While the Board leaned toward a gradual pace of cuts, it made clear that a faster reduction path is possible if the labor market continues to rebalance.

                                    RBA suggested it would not require material deterioration to quicken the pace; rather, once the job market shifts to a more balanced state, it would be appropriate to cut faster to avoid inflation undershooting target.

                                    Technically, AUD/JPY’s pullback from 97.41, as a correction of the broader rise from 86.03, remains in motion. The rebound from 94.38 has lost momentum after stalling at 95.94, with the falling trend line (now at 96.40) likely to cap further upside attempts.

                                    Break below 95.12 minor would signal the correction entering a fresh leg lower, with 94.38 next support. Breaking that level would extend the correction toward 138.2% projection of 97.41 to 94.88 from 96.81 at 93.31.

                                    Though, strong support should emerge from 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 97.41 at 93.06 to complete the correction, and bring resumption of rise form 86.03.


                                    RBA minutes: Not yet possible to decide pace of further easing

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Minutes of RBA’s August 11–12 meeting showed policymakers unanimously backed the 25bps cut to 3.60%, citing stronger evidence that inflation is heading sustainably toward the midpoint of the 2–3% target range. The Board agreed that full employment can be preserved while inflation continues easing, though members noted risks remain in both directions.

                                      The central bank noted that some further reduction in cash rate likely to be needed “in the coming year”. But it also stressed that the pace of further reductions will be determined “meeting by meeting” as new data emerges. While some indicators still suggest a tight labor market and inflation projected to stay slightly above target in the medium term, private demand is recovering, supporting the case for a “gradual pace”.

                                      At the same time, the minutes noted conditions that could justify a”slightly faster” pace of easing. If the labor market is already “in balance”, or if risks shift more clearly to the downside—whether through weaker global growth or slower employment handover—then a quicker reduction in the cash rate could be warranted to avoid undershooting inflation.

                                      Overall, members concluded it is “not yet possible” to judge whether easing will be gradual or slightly faster. RBA left the door open for both paths, emphasizing that data will drive the speed of policy adjustments in the months ahead.

                                      Full RBA minutes here.

                                      AUD/NZD rally intact, busy week with RBA minutes, Aussie CPI and NZ confidence

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        AUD/NZD could see sharp moves this week as markets digest a run of significant releases from both economies. RBA minutes on Tuesday, Australia’s monthly July CPI on Wednesday, and New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence survey on Thursday are possible movers.

                                        In New Zealand, Q2 retail sales offered an upside surprise today. Headline volumes rose 0.5% qoq, beating expectations of 0.2%, while ex-auto sales jumped 0.7% qoq, defying forecasts of contraction. However, the Kiwi failed to capitalize, remaining pressured after last week’s dovish RBNZ decision. Markets have since shifted toward expecting two more rate cuts before the easing cycle ends.

                                        RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby reinforced that view by stressing that both remaining policy meetings this year are “live.” This leaves scope for either two consecutive cuts in 2025, or one this year and one early next year, depending on how upcoming economic data evolves.

                                        Meanwhile, the RBA appears more deliberate. After cutting 25bps earlier this month, the new projections signaled that one additional cut this year and two in 2026 remain the likely path under current assumptions. November is seen as the more appropriate window for action, allowing time to absorb Q3 CPI data. This week’s minutes and July’s monthly CPI release will be important checks on whether that outlook holds.

                                        Technically, AUD/NZD’s near-term rally remains intact, supported by firm momentum on D MACD. As long as 1.1020 holds, further gains are likely, with scope toward the 138.2% projection of 1.0649 to 1.0920 from 1.0744 at 1.1119.

                                        However, there is no clear sign of medium term range breakout yet. Hence, AUD/NZD would likely lose momentum above 1.119. Upside should be capped by 161.8% projection at 1.1182, which is slightly above key resistance of 1.1177 (2024 high).

                                        German Ifo business climate edges higher to 89.0, recovery still weak

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose modestly in August, climbing to 89.0 from 88.6 and beating expectations of 88.3. The improvement was driven by stronger expectations, with the sub-index rising to 91.6 from 90.7. Current assessment slipped from 86.5 to 86.4. Ifo said sentiment among companies has “brightened slightly,” but warned that the recovery “remains weak.”

                                          Sector details painted a mixed picture. Manufacturing sentiment deteriorated further from -11.9 to -12.2, with firms less satisfied about current conditions and order intake still showing no signs of growth, though capital goods makers saw noticeable improvement.

                                          Services dipped from 2.8 to 2.6 as expectations turned cautious despite a stronger current situation. Trade slumped from -20.3 to -21.4 on weaker performance. Construction slipped from -14.3 to -15.3, as firms were less satisfied with current conditions even as their outlook improved.

                                          Full German Ifo release here.

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