Sun, May 05, 2024 @ 01:54 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 252

Live Comments

Random

Fed’s Bostic eyes single rate cut in 2024, credits robust economy

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his anticipation just one interest-rate reduction within this year. Also, the first cut could happen later than previously envisioned, as Fed can “afford to be patient” as long as the economy holds up.

    Bostic’s noted that as long as the economic indicators—such as GDP growth, employment rates, and business activity—remain robust, “I’m not in a hurry to get inflation down to 2%.”

    “If it continues on a trajectory, I’m happy with that,” he added.

    UK Q3 GDP growth fastest since 2016, but September weakness clouds

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      UK Q3 GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% qoq, matched market expectations. That’s also the fastest rate since Q4 2016.

      Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith noted that “The economy saw a strong summer, although longer-term economic growth remained subdued. There are some signs of weakness in September with slowing retail sales and a fall-back in domestic car purchases. However, car manufacture for export grew across the quarter, boosting factory output. Meanwhile, imports of cars dropped substantially helping to improve Britain’s trade balance.”

      However, it should be noted that the rolling three month growth rate slowed from 0.7% in both May-Jul and Jun-Aug periods. This is in line with the above comment that there were some weakness in September. Indeed, monthly GDP growth in September was at 0.0% mom, missed expectation of 0.1% mom.

      Full GDP release here.

      Also released from UK

      • Trade deficit narrowed to GBP -9.7B in September versus expectation of GBP -11.4B.
      • Industrial production rose 0.0% mom, 0.0% yoy in September versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 0.5% yoy.
      • Manufacturing production rose 0.2% mom, 0.5% yoy versus expectation of 0.1% mom 0.4% yoy.
      • Construction output rose 1.7% mom in September versus expectation of 0.2% mom.

      Overall, Sterling turns a bit weaker after the batch of data release.

      Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 49.2 in Aug, economic contraction in Q3

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        Eurozone PMI manufacturing dropped from 49.8 to 49.7 in August, above expectation of 49.0, a 26-month low. PMI Services dropped from 51.2 to 50.2, below expectation of 50.5, a 17-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 49.9 to 49.2, an 18-month low.

        Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The latest PMI data for the eurozone point to an economy in contraction during the third quarter of the year. Cost of living pressures mean that the recovery in the service sector following the lifting of pandemic restrictions has ebbed away, while manufacturing remained mired in contraction in August, seeing another record accumulation of stocks of finished goods as firms were unable to shift products in a falling demand environment. This glut of inventories suggests little prospect of an improvement in manufacturing production any time soon.”

        Full release here.

        Germany Gfk consumer sentiment rose to -6.7, assuming pandemic to ease in spring

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment for February rose 0.2 pts to -6.7, better than expectation of -8.0. In January, economic expectations rose from 17.1 to 22.8. Income expectations rose from 6.9 to 16.9. Propensity to buy rose from 0.8 to 5.2.

          “Despite rising incidences and inflation, consumers are once again showing some optimism at the beginning of the year. In particular, they are hoping for a slight alleviation in price trends, as in January 2022 the base effect resulting from the January 2021 reversal of the VAT cut will mitigate the inflation rate to some degree. Nevertheless, consumers price expectations remain significantly higher than in recent years.”, explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert. “In addition, experts assume that the pandemic situation would ease in the spring, which will lead to a number of restrictions being removed.”

          Full release here.

          Australia Westpac leading index turned positive, signalling above trend growth

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            Australia Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index rose from -0.1% to 0.4% in December. That’s the first positive, above trend, read on the since Since Delta outbreak last August. The index signalled that growth outlook has improved with above trend growth over the next three to nine months.

            Westpac expects contraction in spending in January due to Omicron, and zero growth in GDP in Q1. But the economy is expected to bounce back strongly over the rest of 2022, with a solid 5.5% growth for the year overall.

            Westpac also continues to expect interest rate hike by RBA before August meeting.

            Full release here.

            Australia retail sales stagnate in Oct, trade surplus shrank

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              Australia retail sales rose 0.0% mom in October, much worse than expectation of 0.3% mom. There were falls for clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.8%), department stores (-0.8%) and household goods (-0.2%). They were were offset by rises in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%) and food retailing (0.1%). Other retailing was relatively unchanged (0.0%).

              Across the states, Victoria (-0.4%), New South Wales (-0.2%), and South Australia (-0.5%) fell, while Queensland (0.4%), Tasmania (1.4%), the Northern Territory (2.3%), Western Australia (0.2%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.3 per cent) rose in seasonally adjusted terms in October 2019.

              Also in October, exports of goods and services dropped AUD -2.2B to AUD 40.8B. Imports rose AUD 0.1B to AUD 36.2B. Trade surplus narrowed to AUD 4.5B, below expectation of AUD 6.5B.

              ECB de Guindos: I absolutely honest don’t know rate hikes will continue until when

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said today, “there will be more interest rate hikes, until when, I don’t know. I am absolutely honest, I don’t know.” He added that the central bank was committed to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

                Separately, Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said, “there will undoubtedly be a 50 bps increase in February.”

                RBNZ’s Orr highlights struggle with core inflation and migration impact

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, in his address to a parliament select committee today, emphasized there is “still a long way to go” to curb inflation. He added, “it’s core inflation that’s going to be our challenge ahead”.

                  Orr also noted the complexity of this challenge, pointing out that much of the core inflation factors are entrenched within central and local government influences, including rates and taxes. He cautioned that tackling these elements in the “last five yards on the inflation battle is going to be tough.”

                  Adding to the economic challenges, Orr highlighted the current record-high levels of net inward migration in New Zealand. This surge in migration has surpassed RBNZ’s expectations and presents additional complexities for monetary policy, housing demand, asset prices, and the general inflation outlook.

                  Regarding the country’s economic growth, Orr mentioned that GDP was “surprisingly subdued,” with a contraction of -0.3% in Q3. He indicated that RBNZ is internalizing this complex situation and will provide more detailed insights in their monetary policy statement due in February.

                  Japan PMI manufacturing dipped to 51.0, services rose to 51.9

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 51.5 to 51.0 in September, below expectation of 51.1. That’s the lowest reading since January 2021. Manufacturing Output Index dropped from 49.2 to 48.9. PMI Services, on the other hand, rose from 49.5 to 51.9. PMI Composite rose from 49.4 to 50.9.

                    Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Business are reporting concerns around the economic outlook amid steep cost pressures and the rising likelihood of a global economic downturn. The remarkable weakness we’ve seen in the year-to-date in the yen continues to push up price pressures, with companies struggling to fully pass on these higher costs burdens to clients. Subsequently business confidence slumped to a 13-month low”.

                    Full release here.

                    Australia NAB business confidence dropped to -14, deteriorated even before Melbourne stage 4 lockdown

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped sharply to -14 in July, down from June’s 0. Business Conditions improved to 0, up from -8. Trading conditions turned position to 1 (up from -6), while profitability rose to 2 (up from -8). Employment also improved from -11 to -2 but stayed negative.

                      The survey was conducted prior to stage 4 lockdown in Melbourne as confidence already deteriorated of fear of the spread of the coronavirus. Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist said, “while the improvement in conditions is very welcome, capacity utilisation and forward orders point to ongoing weakness overall. Therefore, with confidence still fragile there is some risk that conditions lose some of their recent gains in coming months.

                      Full release here.

                      Japan & US agreed to speed up trade negotiation, but no time frame assigned

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Japan Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said US and Japan agreed to speed up trade negotiations. He noted that after meeting US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Osaka as sideline of G20 leaders summit. Working level meetings will be held starting next month, towards a bilateral trade agrement.

                        However, Motegi also said there is no time frame for completing the deal. He said noted “we share understanding of each other’s thinking and stance and where our gap lies. Based on that, we are discussing ways to narrow our differences.”

                        BoE Bailey: Businesses concerned about hiring, not raising prices

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said at the Today Programme that the real risks is import inflation from energy and food becomes “embedded”. As firms are not struggling to raise prices, inflation would be comes worse when its embedded.

                          “The first thing they (businesses) want to talk to me about is that businesses have trouble hiring people, and that is still going on. They’re also saying to us actually they’re not finding it difficult to raise prices at the moment. That can’t go on,” he said.

                          Bailey also said the interest rates are not going to go back to pre-2008 financial crisis levels. Additionally, “we don’t think that the rolling back of QE and the sale of assets is going to have a big impact on market interest rates”.

                          Tusk: EU remains open but still unconvinced by Johnson’s Brexit proposals

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            European Council President said EU “remain open but still unconvinced” by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Brexit proposals. And the bloc remained fully united behind Ireland.

                            Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said “my judgment is that Boris Johnson does want a deal and that the paper that was published yesterday was an effort to move us in the direction of a deal. But…if that is the final proposal, there will be no deal”. And, “I think the prime minister’s room for maneuver is very tight, but the truth is he boxed himself into that corner.”

                            German government spokesperson Steffen Seibert said, “for us, it remains the case that a settlement must secure the safeguarding of the internal market, a settlement must be operable, and it must avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.”

                            Fed Bullard: Strong Q3 may put US economy at full recovery by year end

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the US economy may rebound at a 35% annualized rate in Q3. Additionally, the strong rebound in Q3 “may put the U.S. economy within reach of a sort of ‘full recovery’ by the end of 2020.” With another 10% growth in Q4, the national income could be in reach of 2019 average.

                              “These are big numbers, but not outside the realm of possibility,” he said. “I expect this rebound to continue in the U.S. as businesses learn how to produce products and services safely using simple, existing technology.”

                              Nevertheless, “Fed policy would be the same regardless of how optimistic or less optimistic you might be about the outlook,” he said. “I don’t think it’s that reasonable to expect a second-wave scenario to be the one that would dominate your forecasts.”

                               

                              US oil inventories dropped -1m barrels, WTI looking back at 40 as rally fades

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -1.0m barrels in the week ending October 16, versus expectation of 0.5m barrels rise. At 488.1m barrels, oil inventories are about 10% above the five year average for this time of the year. Gasoline inventories rose 1.9m barrels. Distillate dropped -3.8m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -1.6m barrels. Commercial petroleum dropped -7.2m barrels.

                                WTI edged higher to 41.62 earlier in the week but failed to extend gain. Focus is back on 40 handle and sustained break will open up the way lower. But after all, it’s seen as stuck in medium term range pattern between 34.36 and 43.50. We’re not expecting a breakout soon and the path could be choppy, meaning that any move won’t be sustained.

                                ECB Villeroy said French economy to be back to pre-pandemic level by year end

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  ECB Governing Council member, Bank of France Chairman Francois Villeroy de Galhau said he expected the French economy to be back to pre-pandemic level by year-end. He acknowledged that the auto sector was underperforming, but “areas of the economy are doing well.”

                                  He also emphasized “there is still big difference in terms of rising energy prices and overall total inflation.” He expected inflation to get back to below 2% level by the end of next year.

                                  “So today there is no reason, for example, for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates next year.” Though, “we remain very vigilant on inflation,” he added.

                                  Regarding the risk of China’s Evergrande turning into a Lehman Brothers, Villeroy said “history is not in the process of being repeated”. “I think that Evergrande is mainly a Chinese problem,” he added.

                                  Fed Kaplan expects improvement in economic mobility from June onwards

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a CNBC interview, “getting money for school reopenings, vaccine distribution and childcare are critical for economic recovery.” He’s “expecting to see an improvement in the economic mobility from June onwards.” He also sees 10-year yields to rise “if the economy grow as forecasted”.

                                    Regarding recent market frenzy, Kaplan said, “some of the current situation you are seeing — one of the factors — is there is a lot of liquidity, and some of that relates to Fed purchases of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month:

                                    “I still think we need to be doing what we are doing right now, in the teeth of the pandemic, but again, I think if we go beyond it, it will be healthier to start limiting this liquidity and normalizing policy down the road,” he added.

                                    Eurozone GDP grew 2.2% qoq in Q3, EU up 2.1% qoq

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Eurozone GDP grew 2.2% qoq in Q3, slightly above expectation of 2.1% qoq. EU GDP grew 2.1% qoq. Among the EU Member States for which data are available, Austria (+3.3%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by France (+3.0%) and Portugal (+2.9%). The lowest growth was recorded in Latvia (+0.3%) and GDP was stable in Lithuania (0.0%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

                                      Full release here.

                                      AUD/NZD rebounds from 55 day EMA, RBNZ to fuel more upside

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        AUD/NZD rises strongly today after RBA kept interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, even though some expected a cut. Technically, strong support was seen at 55 day EMA. The development suggests that fall from 1.0731 is merely a correction and has completed at 1.0516. Further rise should now be seen back to 1.0731 resistance. Decisive break will resume whole rise from 1.0107 . In that case, 61.8% retracement of 1.1175 to 1.0107 at 1.0767.

                                        The above mentioned will very much depends on RBNZ deliver it’s widely expected rate cut tomorrow. Major economic indicators since the last meeting weakened. In particular, disappointing employment report and inflation in the first quarter appear to have increased the odds of a rate cut this week. We’ll know shortly. More on RBNZ in RBNZ Preview – Chance of Rate Cut Increases as Job Market and Inflation Disappoint.

                                        US initial claims dropped to 206k vs expectation 227k

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          US initial jobless claims dropped -27k to 206k in the week ending December 8, better than expectation of 227k. Four-week moving average dropped -3.75k to 224.75k. Continuing claims rose 25k to 1.661M in the week ending December 1. Four week moving average of continuing claims dropped -2.5k to 1.66575M.

                                          Also released, US import price index dropped -1.6% mom in November, Canada new housing price index rose 0.0% mom in October.

                                          1...251252253...662Page 252 of 662

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.