ECB Panetta: Digital Euro will have strong impact on the entire society

    ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta reiterated the central bank’s plan to decide around mid-year whether to proceed with a digital Euro. Then, there will be a two year investigation, followed by two to three year implementation.

    “Five years is a long time but you should bear in mind that a (digital euro) is not simple and it is not simply a technical issue,” Panetta said. “Its introduction will inevitably have a very strong impact not only on payments and financial markets, both domestic and international, but also more broadly on the entire society.”

    BoJ widens 10-year JGB yield target range to +-0.25%

      Three major changes are announced by BoJ today, as results of the policy review. Firstly, short-term interest rate is held at -0.1%. An “Interest Scheme to Promote Lending” will be established to enable the central bank to “cut short- and long-term interest rates nimbly while considering the impact of the functioning of the financial intermediation”.

      Secondly, 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%. But it’s now allowed to fluctuate in a wider band between plus and minus 0.25%. A “fixed-rate purchase operations for consecutive days” will be introduced to set an upper limit on interest rates when necessary.

      Thirdly, BoJ will purchase ETF and J-REITS with upper limits of about JPY 12T and JPY 180B respectively. But the reference to JPY 6T annual ETF purchase target was dropped.

      Full statement here.

      Australia retail sales dropped -1.1% mom in Feb, lockdown in Vic and WA

        Australia retail sales dropped -1.1% mom, or AUD -346.5m, in February, worst than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. The falls were led by Victoria (-4%) and Western Australia (-6%). Both states saw COVID-19 lockdown restrictions during the month.  Partially offsetting falls in these states were rises in New South Wales and Queensland, which had seen COVID-19 restrictions impact January.

        Full release here.

        WTI oil plunged in worst day since Sep, pressing 59 support

          Oil price plunged sharply overnight on the worst selloff since last September. Concerns over slowdown in global vaccination was a factor that triggered pull back in optimism over oil demand. More than a dozen European countries are still suspending AstraZeneca. Even UK, the best performer in vaccinations, warned over significant reduction in weekly supply from April, relating to manufacturing issue in India.

          Technically, WTI’s failure to sustain above 65.43 structural resistance at this first attempt is not too surprising. A short term top should have be formed at 67.83 with breach of 59.17 support. Focus is now on whether WTI could hold on to the support zone between 55 day EMA (now at 57.97) and 59.17. If so, sideway consolidation should follow for the near term, to digest recent up trend, and build the base for another rally. However, firm break of 57.97/59.17 support zone would trigger deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 33.50 to 67.83 at 54.71 at least.

          US 10-year yield accelerates up again, targeting 2% next

            Selloff in US treasuries was again the major theme in the markets overnight. Both 10- and 30-year yield jumped sharply and closed at the highest level since the pandemic. Fed was clear that it’s not going to tweak its asset purchases for now, and gave a nod to the rise in yields. Investors were betting on improving outlook and the return of inflation through this year’s transitory spike.

            The upside re-acceleration in 10-year yield suggests that it will likely have a take on resistance zone around 2% level, between 1.971 and 61.8% retracement of 3.248 to 0.398 at 2.159 , before forming a top. This will remain the favored case as long as TNX stays above 1.578 support.

            30-year yield is ahead of 10-year yield in the development. TYX has taken out corresponding resistance zone with yesterday’s rise. That is, 2.443 resistance and 61.8% retracement of 3.455 to 0.837 at 2.455. We might further rise in TYX if it could sustain above the current this resistance zone. Though, long term channel resistance at around 3% should cap upside.

            US initial jobless claims rose to 770k, continuing claims dropped to 4.12m

              US initial jobless claims rose 45k to 770k in the week ending March 13, above expectation of 770k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -16k to 746k.

              Continuing claims dropped -18k to 4124k in the week ending March 6. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -99k to 4225k.

              Full release here.

              BoE stands pat, financial conditions broadly unchanged

                BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and asset purchase target at GBP 895B as widely expected. Both decisions are made by unanimous 9-0 vote. It doesn’t intend to tighten monetary policy ” at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably. The MPC also stands ready to “take whatever additional action” if inflation outlook weakens.

                Since the time of February’s Monetary Policy, advanced economy longer-term government bond yields have “risen rapidly” to similar levels before the pandemic. But an “aggregated measure of UK financial conditions has been broadly unchanged”. At the same time, rates of Covid infections and hospitalizations have “fallen markedly” across the UK and vaccination is proceeding at a rapid pace.

                The plans for easing of restriction maybe consistent with a “slightly stronger outlook” for consumption growth in Q2. Labor market slack has remained “higher than implied by the 5.1% LSF unemployment rate. CPI inflation is expected to return to 2% target in spring, reflecting recent in creases in energy prices. But these developments should have “few direct implications” for medium term inflation.

                Full statement here.

                Eurozone exports dropped -11.4% yoy, imports dropped -14.1% yoy in Jan

                  Eurozone exports to rest of the world dropped -11.4% yoy to EUR 163.1B in January. Exports to rest of the world dropped -14.1% yoy to EUR 156.8B. Trade surplus rose EUR 1.5B over the year to EUR 6.3B. Intra Eurozone trade dropped -3.9% yoy to EUR 159.7B.

                  In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports dropped -2.8% mom while imports dropped -1.3% mom. Trade surplus shrank to EUR 24.2B, below expectation of EUR 28.3B.

                  Full release here.

                  ECB Lagarde: Medium term risk more balanced but near term downside risks remain

                    In the hearing of a European Parliament committee, ECB President Christine Lagarde said risks surrounding Eurozone growth outlook over the “medium term” have become “more balanced” owing to better prospects for the global economy and progress in vaccination campaigns. Though, downside risk remain in the “near term”, mainly related to spread of “virus mutations” and implications of ongoing pandemic.

                    She added that inflation has picked up over recent months mainly on “some transitory factors”, and some volatility is expected through 2021. But the factors are expected to “fade out early next year”. Price pressure would “increase some what this year due to “supply constraints and recovery in domestic demand”. But these pressures will “remain subdued overall”.

                    On the issue of treasury yields, Lagarde said, “the increase in risk-free market interest rates and sovereign bond yields that we have observed since the start of the year could spur a tightening in the wider set of financing conditions… Therefore, if sizeable and persistent, increases in those market interest rates, when left unchecked, may become inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation.”

                    Hence, ECB announced to significantly increase the pace of PEPP purchases over the next quarter. “Purchases will be implemented flexibly according to market conditions and always with a view to preventing a tightening of financing conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation”.

                    Full remarks here.

                    Awaits BoE view on recovery, yields and inflation, GBP/CHF bullish in range

                      BoE is generally expected to keep bank rate unchanged at 0.10% today, and hold the QE target at GBP 875B. Both decisions should be by unanimous 9-0 votes. Governor Andrew Bailey sounded upbeat about economy economy in his comments earlier this week, even though that came with “a large dose of caution”. He’s also comfortable with the rise in real interest rates, as that was “consistent with the change in the economic outlook.”

                      On point to note was chief economist Andy Haldane’s warning on inflation last month. He said, there is a tangible risk inflation proves more difficult to tame, requiring monetary policymakers to act more assertively than is currently priced into financial markets…. the greater risk at present is of central bank complacency allowing the inflationary (big) cat out of the bag.”

                      We’d watch for clues on the overall views of the MPC on the issue of growth, yields and inflation. But the details might only be provided later in May’s monetary policy report.

                      Here are some suggested readings on BoE

                      GBP/CHF defended 1.2794 minor support well so far, keeping near term outlook bullish. Consolidations from 1.2985 could be relatively brief. Break of 1.2985 will resume that larger up trend from 1.1102 low towards 1.3310 structural resistance next. Though, firm break of 1.2794 will indicate that lengthier and deeper correction is underway. Further fall could be seen towards 55 day EMA (now at 1.2506), which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.1683 to 1.2985.

                      Australia employment rose 88.7k in Feb, back at pre-pandemic level

                        Australia employment rose 88.7k in February, well above expectation of 31.5k. Full-time jobs grew 89.1k while part-time jobs dropped -0.5k. Unemployment rate dropped -0.5% to 5.8%, much lower than expectation of 6.3%. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 66.1%. Monthly hours worked rose 102m hours to 1.665m.

                        Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said “The strong employment growth this month saw employment rise above 13 million people, and was 4,000 people higher than March 2020.”

                        Full release here.

                        New Zealand GDP contracted -1.0% qoq in Q4, a mixed picture at industry level

                          New Zealand GDP dropped -1.0% qoq in Q4, much worse than expectation of 0.1% qoq. Goods-producing industries dropped -3.2% qoq. Services industries rose a mere 0.1% qoq. Primary industries dropped -0.6% qoq. GDP per capital dropped -1.2% qoq. Over the year to December 2020, annual GDP declined -2.9%.

                          “Activity in the December quarter shows a mixed picture – some industries are down, but others have held up or risen, despite the ongoing impact of COVID,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said. At the industry level 7 out of 16 industries declined. The two largest contributors to the drop were construction, and retail trade and accommodation.

                          Full release here.

                          Gold extends rebound, targets 55 D EMA next

                            Gold’s rebound from 1676.65 resumed overnight, in reaction to Dollar’s weakness. Break of 1740.32 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, after drawing support from medium term channel. The support from 4 hour 55 EMA should also affirm near term bullishness.

                            Further rise is still in favor as long as 1724.00 minor support holds, for 55 day EMA (now at 1789.43). Sustained break there will add to the case that correction from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down to 1676.65. Strong rally would be seen to channel resistance (now at 1899.17) next. Though, break of 1724.00 support will likely extend the correction from 2075.18 with another fall through 1676.65 before completion.

                            DOW and S&P 500 closed at records as Fed Powell well received by investors

                              Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post meeting press conference was generally taken well by investors. Both DOW and S&P 500 closed at new record highs, albeit slight higher ones. 10-year yield pared back some gains to close up 0.020 at 1.641. Dollar, on the other hand, weakened broadly on risk-on sentiments.

                              Powell said that “the stance of monetary policy we have today, we think is appropriate”. “We think our asset purchases in their current form — which is to say across the curve, $80 billion in Treasuries, $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities, on net — we think that’s the right place for our asset purchase”.

                              “Substantial progress” is needed before policymakers consider dialing back the asset purchases. “Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” he emphasized. “As we approach it, well in advance, well in advance, we will give a signal that yes, we’re on a path to possibly achieve that, to consider tapering.”

                              On the topic of of rising treasury yields, Powell said “if you look at various indexes of financial conditions, what you’ll see is they generally do show financial conditions overall to be highly accommodative”. He just reiterated that “I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or by persistent tightening of financial conditions that threaten the achievement of our goals.”

                              Fed chair Jerome Powell press conference, live stream

                                YouTube

                                By loading the video, you agree to YouTube’s privacy policy.
                                Learn more

                                Load video

                                Fed upgrade 2021 GDP and inflation forecasts, expects lower unemployment rate

                                  In the Fed’s new median economic projections:

                                  • 2021 GDP projection was raised from 4.2% to 6.5%. 2022 GDP projection was raised from 3.2% to 3.3%. But 2023 GDP projection was lowered from 2.4% to 2.2%.
                                  • Unemployment rate forecast was lowered from 5.0% to 4.5% in 2021, from 4.2% to 3.9% in 2022, and from 3.7% to 3.5% in 2023.
                                  • Core PCE inflation forecast was upgraded from 1.8% to 2.2% in 2021, from 1.9% to 2.0% in 2022, from 2.0% to 2.1% in 2023.
                                  • Federal funds rate projection was left unchanged at 0.1% throughout the projections horizon.

                                  Full projections here.

                                  Fed keep policy unchanged unanimously, full statement

                                    Fed left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, unanimously. Federal funds rate is kept at 0-0.25%. Purchase of treasury securities will continue by at leaste USD 80B per month, and ABS by at least USD 50B per month.

                                    FOMC also reiterated the pledge to “using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

                                    Full statement below:

                                    The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

                                    The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following a moderation in the pace of the recovery, indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak. Inflation continues to run below 2 percent. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

                                    The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.

                                    The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer­term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage­backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

                                    In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

                                    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

                                     

                                    US oil inventories rose 2.4m barrels, WTI extending consolidation from 67.83

                                      US commercial crude oil inventories rose 2.4m barrels in the week ending March 12, slightly below expectation of 2.8m barrels. At 500.8m barrels, inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 0.5m barrels. Distillate rose 0.3m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -0.2m barrels. Commercial petroleum inventories rose 3.6m barrels.

                                      WTI crude oil is staying in consolidation from 67.83 for now. Outlook remains bullish as long as 59.17 support holds. The focus is on whether WTI could sustain above 65.43 structural resistance, to open the way to extend the medium term up trend to 76.75.

                                      Canada CPI rose to 1.1% yoy, ex-gasoline down to 1.0% yoy

                                        Canada CPI accelerated to 1.1% yoy in February, up from 1.0% yoy, but missed expectation of 1.3% yoy. Excluding gasoline, CPI slowed to 1.0% yoy, down from 1.3% yoy. CPI Common was unchanged at 1.3% yoy, missed expectation of 1.4% yoy. CPI median was unchanged at 2.0% yoy, matched expectations, CPI trimmed rose to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy, below expectation of 1.8% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        GCEE: Germany GDP to contract -2% in Q1, grow 3.1% in 2021

                                          Germany’s Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) lowered 2021 GDP forecasts to 3.1%, as Germany remained “firmly in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic”. GDP is expected to contract -2% in Q1 as a result of the renewed rise in infection rates in Autumn 2020, and the restrictions currently in place. GDP is expected to grow 4.1% in 2022. Economic output is likely to return to its pre-crisis level at the turn of the year 2021/2022. Eurozone GDP is forecast to grow 4.1% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.

                                          “The greatest risk to the German economy is posed by a potential third wave of infections, especially if it were to lead to restrictions or even plant closures in industry,” says council member Volker Wieland.

                                          “For Germany to reach the EU target of vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of September 2021, the current number of daily vaccinations in vaccination centers must be increased by 50%. In addition, this would require general practitioners and specialists to be involved in the vaccination,” states council member Veronika Grimm.

                                          Full release here.