Dollar extends decline as Trump blames Fed Chair Powell for rate hikes

    Dollar stays generally weak in Asian session and extends Monday’s selloff, on Trump’s attack on Fed. In a Reuters interview, Trump reiterated his comments last month that “I’m not thrilled with his raising of interest rates, no. I’m not thrilled,” referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

    He complained the the US is not getting any support from the Fed during his negotiation with other countries. Trump noted, “we’re negotiating very powerfully and strongly with other nations. We’re going to win. But during this period of time I should be given some help by the Fed. The other countries are accommodated.”

    Trump also fingered pointed Eurozone and China for currency manipulation to give them an advantage over the US on trade. He said . “I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely. And I think the euro is being manipulated also.”

    Eurozone CPI finalized at -0.3% yoy in Sep, EU at 0.3% yoy

      Eurozone CPI was finalized at -0.3% yoy in September, down from August’s -0.2% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.34%), followed by services (+0.24%), non-energy industrial goods (-0.08%) and energy (-0.81%).

      EU CPI was finalized at 0.3% yoy, down from August’s 0.4% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.3%), Cyprus (-1.9%) and Estonia (-1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Poland (3.8%), Hungary (3.4%) and Czechia (3.3%). Compared with August, annual inflation fell in thirteen Member States, remained stable in seven and rose in seven.

      Full release here.

      US Agriculture Secretary doesn’t see new tariffs on China take effect

        Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Monday he didn’t expect the new tranche of tariffs on China to to take effect this Sunday, December 15. “We have a deadline coming up on the Dec. 15 for another tranche of tariffs, I do not believe those will be implemented and I think we may see some backing away,” Perdue said at a conference in Indianapolis, Indiana

        He added that Trump didn’t want to implement the new tariffs. But “there’s got to be some movement on their (China’s) part to encourage him not to do that and hopefully the signal that they sent over soy and pork reduction might be that signal in that way,”

        Perdue also pointed out the main difficulty regarding enforcement. “The challenge is, we are used to dealing in contracts here, we are using to fulling contracts, one party contracts with another and we fulfill that, we have arbitration when that doesn’t happen,” he said. “Between nations there’s not a lot of arbitration and that’s the challenge. If China signs a deal and a contract, what are the enforceability measures of that? That’s really what we are dealing with right now.”

        ECB de Guindos: 50bps is the new norm for a period of time

          ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview with Le Monde, “increases of 50 basis points may become the new norm in the near term”. He added, “we should expect to raise interest rates at this pace for a period of time” and “enter into restrictive territory.”

          He expects inflation will be “somewhere around its current level” at 10% “over the course of the next two or three months”. Inflation will then drop to “hover around 7% by middle of the year. As it’s “still clearly above” ECB’s target of 2%, “We have no choice but to act.”

          Regarding the economy, he said, “our projections therefore expect the euro area to fall into a mild recession in the last quarter of this year and in the first quarter of 2023, when GDP is expected to contract by 0.1%.”

          Full interview here.

          EU Malmstrom and USTR Lighthizer to meet on March 6 on trade negotiations and tariffs

            EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom is scheduled meet U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on March 6 in Washington to resume trade negotiations. On the following day, Secretary-General of the European Commission, Martin Selmayr, will meet US National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow.

            European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said “the discussions will focus on the next steps toward the implementation of the July 2018 Joint Statement and on the EU-US cooperation on World Trade Organization reform and level playing field issues”. He added that “the Commission will update the U.S. side on the state of play of the adoption of the negotiating mandates for EU-U.S. trade agreements on industrial goods and on conformity assessment.”

            Also, Schinas said “the Commission will also raise the EU’s concerns on the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel and aluminum products and on the possible consequences of the recently concluded investigation on whether automobile imports represent a threat to the US’ national security”.

            BoC Poloz: Recent data suggests below-potential growth just temporary

              BoC Governor Stephen Poloz sounded confident in his speech yesterday. He noted that Canada is adjusting the challenges in the domestic and global economies. And after taking into account the structural adjustments to oil prices, he said “we can see many area of encouraging economic growth”.

              He added that the global economy is performing less well than expected and “Canada is feeling the effects”. Housing markets is also taking longer to “digest the combined effect of stricter mortgage guidelines and higher interest rates”.

              However, Poloz said “recent economic data have been generally consistent with our expectation that the period of below-potential growth will prove to be temporary.”

              More on Poloz’s speech.

              Mid-US update: Dollar and Yen maintains unconvincing gains, Canadian and Sterling weakest

                Dollar and Yen remain the strongest one in mid-US session, after European close. However, for now, it’s uncertain whether they can sustain the gains before US close. Risk aversion is a key driver in the strengthen of them. But judging from the actions in the US markets, it’s hard to say whether the major indices will close the day up or down. DOW dropped to as low as 25479 initially but is now down just -0.14% at 25763. S&P 500 dropped top as low as 2781 but it’s now up 0.13% at 2814. Similarly, NSDAQ dropped to as low as 7563 but it’s now up 0.04% at 7468.

                On the other hand, Canadian overtook Sterling’s place as the weakest one after larger than expected oil inventory increase sent WTI crude oil to 70. Selling pressing in oil and the Loonie could persist. Sterling was sold off earlier today after UK CPI miss and stays week. The Pound fate will depend on the outcome of the “moment of truth” EU summit.

                In Europe:

                • FTSE dropped -0.07% to 7504.60
                • DAX dropped -0.52% to 11715.03
                • CAC dropped -0.54% to 5144.95
                • German 10 year yield dropped -0.0293 to 0.465
                • Italian 10 year yield rose 0.0841 to 3.545.

                Into US session: Dollar strongest as recovery continues, Euro shrugs weak data

                  Entering into US session, Dollar remains the strongest one for today as recovery continues. The second place is taken up by Euro, despite weak Sentix Investor Confidence and PPI. Canadian Dollar also remains firm as WTI crude oil edges higher to 55.85. Nevertheless, oil price is suffering some profit taking currently, which oil drags down the Loonie.

                  Meanwhile, Australian Dollar is the weakest one for today, weighed down by poor housing data. Focus will turn to tomorrow’s RBA rate decision. No change in interest rate is expected. But RBA could give some hints on revisions on economic projections. Details will be published with the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. Yen is following as the second weakest, then Sterling.

                  In European markets:

                  • FTSE is up 0.28%.
                  • DAX is down -0.16%.
                  • CAC is down -0.53%.
                  • German 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 0.166, staying far below 0.2 handle.

                  Earlier in Asia:

                  • Nikkei rose 0.46%.
                  • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.21%.
                  • China started lunar new year holiday already.
                  • Singapore Strati Times dropped -0.13%.
                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.008 to -0.012, staying negative.

                  Powell asserts Fed will hold rates steady if inflation persists

                    Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that recent economic data have not bolstered confidence in disinflation. He signaled the readiness to keep rates elevated for an extended period if inflationary pressure persists.

                    “Recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence that inflation is coming fully under control. Instead, they indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said at a conference overnight. .

                    “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work,” he added.

                    “If higher inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of interest rates for as long as needed,” Powell noted.

                    Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.4% mom, PPI slowed to 2.6% yoy

                      Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.4% mom in April, slightly better than expectation of -0.5% mom. Volume of retail trade decreased by 0.4% for food, drinks and tobacco and for non-food products, while automotive fuel increased by 0.1%. EU28 retail sales dropped -0.3% mom. In EU, volume decreased by 0.4% for non-food products and by 0.2% for food, drinks and tobacco and for automotive fuel.

                      Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Germany (-2.0%), Portugal (-1.0%) and Croatia (-0.9%). The highest increases were observed in Sweden (+2.4%), Slovenia (+2.0%) and Malta (+1.7%).

                      Eurozone PPI came in at -0.3% mom, 2.6% yoy in April, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 3.1% yoy. EU 28 PPI was at -0.1% mom, 2.9% yoy.

                      The largest monthly decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (-1.7%), Italy (-1.5%) and Sweden (-0.8%), while the highest increases were observed in Denmark and Greece (both +1.2%), and Hungary (+0.9%).

                      Annually, the highest increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Romania (+6.7%), Hungary (+6.5%) and Latvia (+5.6%), while there were no decreases observed.

                      Bundesbank: German economy to decline in Winter, pick up again in Spring

                        Bundesbank said in the latest monthly report that German economic output is likely to decline noticeably again in the winter quarter of 2022.

                        But economic prospects are “good”. It said, “in view of the very good demand situation, the German economy should pick up speed again in the spring, provided that the pandemic subsides and the supply bottlenecks continue to ease.”

                        “Thus, from today’s perspective, the economic outlook is only slightly less favorable than expected in the projections from December 2021, despite the increased burden caused by the pandemic and high inflation,”conclude the experts.

                        Full release here.

                        BoE Bailey: CPI on course to halve by end of year

                          BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in the post meeting press conference, “we have to stay the course to make sure inflation falls all the way back to the 2% target.”

                          Nevertheless he expected the rise in bank rates since December to “weigh more on the economy in the coming quarters”.

                          Inflation is “expected to fall sharply over the coming months, starting in April.” He added, “consumer price inflation is on course to halve by the end of this year.”

                          As for the economy, he said, “today we are forecasting modest but positive growth and a much smaller increase in unemployment.”

                          Today’s top mover: AUD/JPY completed double bottom, medium term trend in bullish reversal

                            AUD/JPY is so far the biggest gainer today, up 32 pips or 0.39% at the time of writing.

                            The cross experience quite significant technical development this week. The break of 82.50 resistance completed a double bottom reversal pattern (78.67, 78.65). Bullish convergence condition is seen in daily MACD. And it drew support from 61.8% retracement of 72.39 to 90.29 at 79.22. Adding all together, the down trend from 90.29 should have completed at 78.56. The structure suggests fall from 90.29 to 78.56 is a corrective move.

                            Now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 81.94 support holds. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 90.29 to 78.56 at 83.04 will have 55 week EMA firmly taken out too. In that case, further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 85.80 and above. From a longer term perspective, such development would also argue that rise from 72.39 is resuming and raise the chance of breakthrough through 90.29 in medium term.

                            China Caixin PMI services rose to 56.3, composite rose to 54.7

                              China Caixin PMI Services rose to 56.3 in April, up from 54.3, above expectation of 54.2. There was steeper increase in activity amid strongest upturn in sales for five months. Quicker rise in employment helped easing capacity pressures. Optimism towards the year ahead remained historically sharp. PMI Composite rose to 54.7, up from 53.1.

                              Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the post-epidemic manufacturing and services recovery accelerated as both supply and demand expanded. Business confidence was high amid strong overseas demand and improved employment. Services recovered faster than manufacturing. Inflation will be a focus in the future. Inflationary pressure was evident as input costs and output prices in manufacturing and services have continued to increase for several months.”

                              Full release here.

                              BoC tapers, expects economic slack to be absorbed in H2 of 2022

                                BoC left overnight rate target unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. Bank rate and deposit rate are held at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. Weekly net purchases of Canadian Government bonds is reduced from CAD 4B to CAD 3B, as widely expected too. It noted that “this adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.”

                                Also, as economic prospect improve, BoC now expects that economic slack will be absorbed some time in H2 of 2022, much earlier than March’s expectation of “until into 2023”. BoC will only commits to hold policy interest rate at ELB until then.

                                BoC revised real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% in 2021 (up from 4%), 3.75% in 2022 (down from 5%) and 3.25% in 2023 (up from 2.25%). Inflation is expected to rise “temporarily” to around top of 1-3% target range over the next few months, due to base-year effects. But CPI is expected to ease back to 2% over H2 of 2021. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2% on a “sustained basis some time in the second half of 2022”.

                                Full statement here.

                                Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.7, toughest spell since 2013 continued

                                  Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.7 in May, unrevised, down from April’s 47.9. That’s also very close to six year low at 47.5 made in March. Looking at the member states, German PMI manufacturing was worst at 44.3. Austria reading dropped to 50-month low at 49.5. Italy reading improved to 8-month high at 49.5 but stayed below 50. Spain reading dropped to 3-month low at 50.2. France reading improved to 3-month high at 50.6, barely expanding.

                                  Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                  “Euro area manufacturing remained in contraction during May, suggesting the sector will act as a drag on the wider economy in the second quarter.

                                  “A fourth successive monthly drop in output and further steep decline in new orders underscored how the sector remains in its toughest spell since 2013. Companies are tightening their belts, cutting back on spending and hiring. Input buying, inventories and employment are all now in decline as manufacturers worry about being exposed to a further downturn in demand.

                                  “That said, although the headline PMI fell in May, the decline masked slower rates of decline for both output and new orders. The forward-looking orders- to- inventory ratio also picked up for a second month running to reach a six-month high, the improvement of which augurs well for the downturn to moderate in June.

                                  “However, trade wars, slumping demand in the auto sector, Brexit and wider geopolitical uncertainty all remained commonly cited risks to the outlook, and all have the potential to derail any stabilisation of the manufacturing sector.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Also released, Swiss CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy in May, down from 0.7% yoy and matched expectation. Swiss PMI manufacturing rose 0.2 to 48.6 in May, below expectation of 48.8.

                                  DOW could have finished corrective rebound after rejection by 55 day EMA

                                    DOW gapped down yesterday and eventually closed down -631.56 pts, or -2.67%, at 23018.88. The development raises the chance that corrective rebound from 18213.65 has completed after rejection by 55 day EMA. Immediate focus is back on 22595.06 resistance turned support. Break will add more credence to this case and target next support level at 20735.02.

                                    In case of another rise, it now looks like upside would be limited by 61.8% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 25230.99.

                                    UK GDP grew 0.9% mom in Nov, back above pre-pandemic level

                                      UK GDP rose strongly by 0.9% mom in November, well above expectation 0.4% mom. Looking at some details, services grew 0.7%, production rose 1.0% mom, and production increased 3.5% mom.

                                      Monthly GDP was back above pre-COVID level in February 2020, for the first time, by 0.7%. Also, if there are no other data revision, Q4 GDP should either reach or surpass its pre-coronavirus level in Q4 2019, provided monthly December GDP does not fall by more than -0.2% mom.

                                      Full GDP released here.

                                      Also released, industrial production rose 1.0% mom, 0.1% yoy versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 0.5% yoy. Manufacturing rose 1.1% mom, 0.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, -0.3% yoy. Index of services rose 1.3% 3mo3m, versus expectation of 0.5%. Goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -11.3B, versus expectation of GBP -14.2B.

                                      UK PMI composite dropped to 53.2, hit once again by COVID-19

                                        UK PMI Manufacturing dropped from 58.1 to 57.6 in December, matched expectations. PMI Services dropped sharply from 58.5 to 53.2, well below expectation of 57.5, a 10-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 57.6 to 53.2, also a 10-month low.

                                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The flash PMI data show the UK economy being hit once again by COVID-19, with growth slowing sharply at the end of the year led by a steep drop in spending on services by households. Some brighter news came through from manufacturing, where an easing of supply chain delays helped lift production growth, but more importantly also helped take some upward pressure off prices to hint at a peaking of inflation.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        France PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.9, PMI services dropped to 57.1

                                          France PMI Manufacturing dropped from 55.9 to 54.9 in December, below expectation of 55.3. PMI Services dropped from 57.4 to 57.1, above expectation of 55.6. PMI Composite dropped from 56.1 to 55.6.

                                          Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                          “France’s economy ended the fourth quarter with another solid monthly expansion in output, but the headline number doesn’t really tell us the full story as trends by sector are still widely divergent.

                                          “Growth in France is, at present, entirely reliant on the service sector as manufacturing output fell for the second time in the past three months. Weak demand for goods, supply shortages and the consequent impact these have on production is weighing heavily on manufacturers. Meanwhile, although services firms are continuing to see rising activity levels, growth slowed from November as some firms saw new business intakes dented by the latest wave of COVID-19 infections hitting France right now. Tourism has also been a welcomed pillar of additional support to the services sector since the middle of this year, but December data showed new business from overseas falling amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.

                                          “It’s clear that the risks to the economy have grown substantially since November, and a fresh wave of COVID-19 infections could de-rail services activity. While France has so far distanced itself from implementing virus-combatting measures of the same stringency as other parts of Europe, changes in business and consumer behaviour in the face of the Omicron variant could dent the recovery.”

                                          Full release here.