Japan PMI Services rose to 55.4 in April, up from 55.0 in March, marking the eighth consecutive month in growth territory. This represents the highest reading since records began in 2007, surpassing the previous record set in 2013. S&P Global also noted that year-ahead business expectations reached an all-time high, while prices charged increased at the steepest pace in nine years. Meanwhile, the PMI Composite remained unchanged at 52.9, as stronger services growth offset a sharper reduction in manufacturing production.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence attributed the record rise in service sector output to a rebound in demand for face-to-face consumer services, recovery in international tourist arrivals, and improvement in new business from abroad.

Moore also emphasized the high level of business confidence, with around four times as many service providers expecting an increase in activity as those forecasting a decline. This optimism marked the highest level in more than 15 years of data collection.

Furthermore, service providers increasingly passed on higher business expenses to customers to alleviate pressure on margins from rising wages and transportation costs. This resulted in the steepest increase in service sector output charges since the sales tax hike in April 2014.

Full Japan PMI services release here.

Japan’s exports grew by a modest 2.6% yoy to JPY 8288B in April. Although this represented the lowest growth in exports since February 2021, it still marked the largest export figure for April on record.

A closer examination of the data reveals a shift in trading dynamics. Exports to China fell by -2.9% yoy, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The decrease was driven by downturns in shipments of cars, car parts, and steel. Similarly, exports to Asia overall declined by -6.6% yoy, continuing a contraction trend for the fourth month in a row.

However, things looked rosier elsewhere. Exports to the US and EU showed robust growth, rising by 10.5% yoy and 11.7% yoy respectively. This uptick was led by a rebound in exports of cars and car parts, which have seen easing supply constraints.

Contrasting with export trends, imports fell by -2.3% yoy to JPY 8721B, the first annual decline witnessed in 27 months. This decrease was largely attributed to a slump in imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Consequently, Japan recorded a trade deficit of JPY -432B for the 21st month running.

In seasonally adjusted term, the situation presents a slightly different picture. Exports rose by 2.5% mom to JPY 8259B, while imports inched up by 0.1% mom to JPY 9276B. In light of this, trade deficit narrowed to JPY -1017B.

Japan industrial production rose strongly by 8.9% mom in June, well above expectation of 3.7% mom. That’s also the biggest monthly rise since data become available in 2013. Car production jumped 14.0% mom thanks to easing of lockdowns in Shanghai of China. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to extend its recovery by 3.8% in July and 6.0% in August.

Also released, retail sales rose 1.5% yoy in June, below expectation of 2.8% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6% in June. Housing starts dropped -2.2% yoy in June, versus expectation of -1.2% yoy. Consumer confidence dropped from 32.1 to 30.2 in July, below expectation of 33.0.