UK PM May: It’s imperative to bring forward Brexit deal to receive royal assent by summer recess

    UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman said the Cabinet has agreed today to continue negotiations with Labour regarding the Brexit deal. He noted that “Ministers involved in the negotiations set out details of the compromises which the government was prepared to consider in order to consider an agreement which would allow the UK to leave the EU with a deal as soon as possible.”

    Also, “Cabinet agreed to continue discussions with Labour to see what was possible. However it was agreed that it is imperative to bring forward the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in time for it to receive royal assent by the summer parliamentary recess.”

    New Zealand GDP contracted -1.0% qoq in Q4, a mixed picture at industry level

      New Zealand GDP dropped -1.0% qoq in Q4, much worse than expectation of 0.1% qoq. Goods-producing industries dropped -3.2% qoq. Services industries rose a mere 0.1% qoq. Primary industries dropped -0.6% qoq. GDP per capital dropped -1.2% qoq. Over the year to December 2020, annual GDP declined -2.9%.

      “Activity in the December quarter shows a mixed picture – some industries are down, but others have held up or risen, despite the ongoing impact of COVID,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said. At the industry level 7 out of 16 industries declined. The two largest contributors to the drop were construction, and retail trade and accommodation.

      Full release here.

      Fed minutes: As even more restrictive stance could be appropriate

        In the minutes of the June 14–15 FOMC meeting, Fed noted, “participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.”

        Also, “participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis.”

        “Many participants judged that a significant risk now facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted,” the minutes noted.

        Full minutes here.

        NASDAQ cleared one projection hurdle, targets 16582 next

          US stocks surged to new record highs overnight despite Fed’s tapering announcement. NASDAQ’s break of 61.8% projection of 13002.52 to 15403.43 from 14181.69 at 15665.44 is a sign that it’s in another acceleration phase. For now near term outlook will stay bullish as long as this week’s low at 15470.74 holds. Next target will be 100% projection at 16582.59.

          Japan core CPI rose 0.8% yoy but mainly driven by energy

            Released from Japan, the all items CPI rose 0.1% mom, 0.7% yoy in June. Core CPI, all item less fresh food, rose 0.1% mom, 0.8% yoy. Core core CPI, all item less fresh food and energy, has indeed dropped -0.1% mom and rose 0.2% yoy.

            The set of data should be rather disappointing for the BoJ. The decline in core core CPI suggests that inflation was mainly driven by the surge in energy costs. There wasn’t much of press pressure elsewhere. It’s remains a long road to meet its 2% inflation target. And there is no light on when the central could withdraw the massive stimulus.

            Fed Barkin supportive of slower, but probably longer and potentially high tightening

              Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in an interview yesterday, “I’m very supportive of a (tightening) path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before.”

              “It is helpful to be somewhat more cautious as you are in restrictive territory,” he said. “It is a better risk-management approach.”

              “Inflation has been stubborner than I would like,” he said. “As long as inflation stays elevated, that makes the case to me that we need to do more.”

              GBPUSD downside breakout, heading to 1.3161 fibonacci level

                GBPUSD is a pair to note as it has finally taken out 1.3448 medium term fibonacci support. Last week’s consolidation was relatively brief and weak, with upside capped by 1.36. GBP Action Bias table shows that’s it’s generally bearish against all by JPY.

                GBPUSD Action Bias table is consistent with bearish development in the pair.

                GBPUSD shows persistent downside red bias in D Action Bias chart.

                6H Action Bias also turned red and stays red for 4 bars, in line with downside breakout development.

                50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 will be the next near term target.

                US non-farm payroll grew 263k, strong wage growth

                  US non-farm payroll employment grew 263k in November, above expectation of 200k. Average job growth was 282k over the prior three months, and 392k thus far in 2022. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, matched expectations. Participation rate dropped -0.1% to 62.1%. Wage growth was strong with average hourly earnings up 0.6% mom, versus expectation of 0.3% mom.

                  Full release here.

                  China said to be open to partial trade deal excluding resolutions to core issues

                    According to a Bloomberg report based on unnamed source, China is open to a partial trade deal with the US. The condition is that US will refrain from imposing additional tariffs, including the coming batch on October 15 and another batch in December. In return, China would offer to increase agricultural purchases. Financial Times said the annual purchase would be raised from USD 20m to USD 30m.

                    Yet, China is unwilling to address the core issues, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, subsides to state-owned enterprises, and enforcement of the agreement. Such a position is very unlikely to be accepted by trade hawks in the US administration, probably not by President Donald Trump neither.

                    Political tensions between US and China are heating up just ahead of the high-level trade negotiations on Thursday and Friday. US expanded the trade blacklist of Chinese companies with involvements in China’s treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, targeting 20 Chinese public security bureaus and eight companies., Also, US has imposed visa restrictions on officials allegedly responsible for the abuse of Uyghurs. China is said to be considering to restrict visa for anti-China US officials too.

                    Risk sentiments reversed after Fed expands debt purchase

                      Risk sentiments staged a strong rebound overnight after Fed announced to expand the so called Second Market Corporate Credit Facility. Fed will starting buying a “broad and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds to support market liquidity and the availability of credit for large employers.” The SMCCF will crease a portfolio made up of all bonds in the secondary market that satisfy the facility’s minimum rating, maximum maturity, and other criteria. The indexing approach will complement SMCCF’s current ETF purchases. .

                      DOW once declined over 760 pts but ended up 157.62 pts or 0.62% at 25763.16. S&P 500 also reversed earlier loss to day low of 2965.66, and closed up 0.83% at 3066.59. SPX somewhat drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered but is kept well below last week’s gap. We’d expect corrective pattern from 3233.13 to extend for the near term. Another decline will remain in favor to 38.2% retracement of 2191.86 to 3233.13 at 2835.36. Reactions from there would determine the next move.

                      New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to 9.4, first positive since 2017

                        New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence jumped to 9.4 in December, up from-6.9. That’s the first positive reading since August 2017. Own Activity index rose to 21.7, up from 9.1, highest since March 2018.

                        ANZ added, “the New Zealand economy is showing impressive resilience. After a 14% bounceback in the September quarter, the economy is the same size it was pre-COVID.” Nevertheless, “it’s not the same shape” with “some real stresses and strains, in both overheated sectors like construction, and chilled ones like tourism.” Also, “we expect a technical recession in Q4 and Q1 as the policy-fuelled bounce fades and the tourism hole hurts”.

                        Full release here.

                         

                        CAD/JPY targeting 2014 high as Yen selloff deepens

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that a weak Yen is “beneficial” for Japan’s economy if the moves are “not too sharp”. He emphasized again that the moves in currency markets should reflect “fundamentals”, and the central bank is “carefully watching” the impact.

                          The comments came as Yen was sold off broadly, triggered by US 10-year yield reclaimed 3% handle overnight. Germany 10-year bund yield also jumped to fix at 1.323. USD/JPY hit the highest level in over two-decades while CAD/JPY is also getting close to 2014 high at 106.48.

                          For now, near term outlook in CAD/JPY will stay bullish as long as 103.60 support holds, targeting 61.8% projection of 89.21 to 102.93 from 97.78 at 106.25, which is close to above mentioned 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 68.38 to 106.48 from 73.80 at 111.90. That is the key hurdle for CAD/JPY to overcome in the medium term.

                          Markets not too surprised at Gary Cohn’s resignation, DOW ended flat

                            So it finally happened. White House economic top economic adviser Gary Cohn resigned. It’s reported that the decision was made hours after direct confrontation with Trump regarding the steel and aluminum tariffs. Trump requested Cohn to publicly support the tariff plan. But Cohn, as a free trade advocate, didn’t answer. The meeting with industry executives, arranged by Cohn for persuading Trump not to impose the tariffs, was also canceled.

                            Cohn said in a statement that  “it has been an honor to serve my country and enact pro-growth economic policies to benefit the American people, in particular the passage of historic tax reform.”

                            Trump said regarding Cohn that “Gary has been my chief economic adviser and did a superb job in driving our agenda, helping to deliver historic tax cuts and reforms and unleashing the American economy once again.” And,  “he is a rare talent, and I thank him for his dedicated service to the American people.”

                            Stock markets reaction to the news was quiet muted. DOW continued to struggle around 55 H EMA, closed up 0.04% at 24884.12/. Technically, it’s also in proximity to 25000 handle, 50% retracement of 25800.35 to 24127.47 at 25008.91. This will a key near term hurdle for DOW to overcome.

                            S

                            Yen higher in Asiaa, ignores strong stock markets rally

                              Asian stocks surge strongly and broadly today. At the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.88%, and Singapore Strait Times is up 0.66%. But the more powerful rallies are found in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. The Shanghai SSE is up 1.43% while HSI is up 2.06%. The moves are partly follow-up to record close in NASDAQ and S&P 500 on Friday. Also, the markets responded positively to the PBoC’s measures to pause Yuan’s decline. In short, China’s central bank reintroduced measures that acts counter-cyclical to market forces to keep Yuan from falling too quickly.

                              USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) is now notably below August high at 6.9586. And 6.9871 key resistance 2016 high, temporarily defended. With a short term top formed, USD/CHN will likely gyrate lower to 55 day EMA (now at 6.7238) and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 6.2358 to 6.9586 at 6.6825. But we’d like to emphasize that the pull back is also due post-Powell weakness in Dollar. And, for such a heavily intervened currency, technical analysis is not that useful generally.

                              Meanwhile, the currency markets are not too fuzzed with the developments. Yen ignores the return of risk appetites and trades higher today. Australian Dollar turns softer while Dollar remains weak. After all, the forex markets are quietly mixed. The UK will be on holiday today and the only notable data is German Ifo business climate. Light summary holiday trading might prevail.

                              China insists core concerns must be resolved before trade agreement with US

                                China continues to talk down expectations of upcoming Xi-Trump summit at G20 in Osaka next week. Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said “the heads of the two trade teams will communicate, according to instructions passed down from the two presidents.” And, “we hope (the United States) will create the necessary conditions and atmosphere for solving problems through dialogue as equals.”

                                But most importantly, Gao insisted that “China’s principles and basic stance on Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations have always been clear and consistent, and China’s core concerns must be properly resolved.” He was clearly referring to disagreement on the three matters of principle that led to the collapse of trade negotiation earlier this year.

                                To recap, the three main differences include removal of all additional tariffs with the agreement. The among of additional Chinese purchases of US goods have to be realistic. And text of the agreement must be balanced without intrusion of sovereignty. It’s believed that the third one, regarding removal of texts that force China to implement the agreement in domestic laws, is the most crucial red line.

                                UK PM May to meet ministers to work on another Brexit white paper

                                  UK Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with senior ministers this Friday, with an effort to resolve all differences regarding Brexit. May would also want to conclude another “white paper” on the issue. Her spokesman said “the PM looked forward to the full discussion which will take place at Chequers on Friday when decisions will be taken on the future partnership the UK is seeking with the EU and the content of the upcoming white paper.”

                                  Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond also said “on Friday the cabinet will meet to set out our way forward in our negotiations with the European Union. We recognize that this is now urgent and that we need to make progress.”

                                  Fed press conference live stream

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                                    Australia AiG services rose to 55.8, but employment fell

                                      Australia AiG Performance of Services rose 1.5 pts to 55.8 in February, highest since June 2018, as “recovery following the COVID-19 recession of 2020 gaining in strength”. Looking at some details, sales rose 5.5 pts to 65.7. New orders rose 3.6 pts to 58.4. However, employment dropped -13.2 to 42.7. Input prices rose slightly by 1.8 to 64.4. But selling prices jumped 11.2 to 56.2.

                                      Ai Group Chief Executive, Innes Willox, said: ” While the continued improvement in conditions is heartening, employment fell in February following a strong recovery in the preceding months. Employers and employees will be hoping that the further growth in new orders recorded in February signals the continued recovery of sales and employment over the next few months.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB Lane: There is clear risk of self-fulfilling adverse dynamics

                                        ECB chief economist Philip Lane said in a speech over the weekend, “there is a clear risk of self-fulfilling adverse dynamics taking hold through which uncertain economic prospects induce households, firms and governments to hold back on expenditure plans, leading to a decline in overall demand that validates the loss in confidence about the future.”

                                        The risk is “compounded by the danger of real financial amplification channels by which lenders (banks or bond investors) become reluctant to lend and borrowers (households, firms or governments) become reluctant to take on debt because they fear that lower growth prospects would be amplified by declining creditworthiness and a tighter credit supply.”

                                        Hence, “it is essential that the ECB acts as a stabilising force and boost confidence by committing to the preservation of favourable financing conditions.” The commitment is delivered through the “full set of monetary policy instruments, including low policy rate and forward guidance, the APP asset purchase program, the PEPP pandemic emergency purchase program, the calibration of the TLTRO III, and the collatural policies.

                                        Full speech here.

                                        RBNZ Hawkesby: Negative rate is not a game of bluff

                                          RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said the central bank is still “very much in the mindset of ‘have we provided enough stimulus, and if we need to provide more what is the best way to do that?'” And that is what “motivated our work around active preparation of a package of further tools.”

                                          He emphasized that negative interest rate is “not a game of bluff” to talk down the New Zealand Dollar exchange rate. Though, “the biggest challenge about having a negative policy rate is the communication challenge,” he said. “How to explain it to the general public, how to explain it as a policy, how to win the argument, how to retain hearts and minds that you’re doing the right thing for the right reasons.”