BoJ Amamiya: Difficult challenge is to determine whether exit conditions are in place

    BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya told the parliament that the central bank has already shifted to a “sustainable monetary easing framework”. Thus, it is “appropriate to maintain current policy given underlying price moves.”

    But he also noted that BoJ has “sufficient operational tools” to achieve a smooth exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

    “The difficult challenge for the BOJ is to determine whether conditions have fallen in place to exit, and how to communicate (its policy intention) to the market,” Amamiya added.

    BoE Woods asking banks’ readiness for negative rates

      BoE Deputy Governor Sam Woods sent as letter to banks asking for their readiness on negative interest, as it could be an option to take based on current situation.

      “We are requesting specific information about your firm’s current readiness to deal with a zero Bank Rate, a negative Bank Rate, or a tiered system of reserves remuneration – and the steps that you would need to take to prepare for the implementation of these,” Woods said in a letter.

      “We are also seeking to understand whether there may be potential for short-term solutions or workarounds, as well as permanent systems changes,” he said.

      US initial jobless claims rose to 224k, durables dropped -4.4%, Dollar lower

        Initial jobless claims rose 3k to 224k in the week ended November 17, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 218.5k.

        Continuing claims dropped -2k to 1.668M in the week ended November 10. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 7.5k to 1.650M.

        Headline durable goods orders dropped sharply by -4.4% in October, missed expectation of -2.5%. Ex-transport orders rose just 0.1%, missed expectation of 0.4% too.

        Dollar trades notably lower after the releases.

        UK Hammond rejected CBI’s call for customs union after Brexit

          UK Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond rejected the call from business leaders on customs union after Brexit. Hammond said that government shared the CBI’s desire to “minimise frictions and burdens, to avoid new barriers in Ireland and to grow British exports”.

          However, he emphasized that “we do not agree that staying in the customs union is necessary to deliver them.” And he tried to persuade the business leaders that ministers were “confident we can develop a solution that will allow us to move forward while meeting your concerns”.

          This was in response to CBI President Paul Drechsler’s speech in the in the group’s annual dinner. There Paul Drechsler urged US Prime minister Theresa May to “break the Brexit logjam and fast”. And he added that UK should remain in the customs union with the EU “unless and until an alternative is ready and workable”.

          BoE Bailey: Rise in rates consistent with change in economic outlook

            BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told BBC radio, “we watch rates in financial markets very closely.” “We have seen some increase in rates over the last month or so as have other countries,” he said. “My view is that is consistent with the change in the economic outlook.”

            “Our current view of inflation is that it will get back towards our 2% target,” he added. “It will get back towards that level in the next two or three months. The important question here is: will that be sustained?”

            “I’m saying we will need to see evidence that the trend in the economy and therefore the trend in inflation is sustainable simply because of the uncertainty and the huge effect of the Covid shock.”

            “This Covid effect on the economy is huge so what we are saying on the recovery is the economy will get back by the end of this year to where it was at the end of 2019. That’s good news but let’s be realistic: it’s no more than getting back to where we were pre-Covid.”

            Richmond Fed Barkin: Economy is remarkably strong

              Thomas Barkin delivered his first speech as Richmond Fed President overnight and expressed his support for more rate hikes ahead. But he declined to comment on how many hikes this year he expects.

              He noted that “monetary policy is still pretty accommodative”. And, “when unemployment is low and inflation is effectively at our target, we probably ought to go to neutral in that environment.” Also, “the economy’s performance as we sit here today is remarkably strong: above trend growth, low unemployment, inflation at target.”

              But Barkin also warned on the risks from the trade tensions between US and other countries. He said it’s “not clear what’s going to be implemented in the end” regarding tariffs. But “there is an issue on business confidence and the business people that I talk to who were almost euphoric in January are now nervous. And they’re nervous about where the macroeconomy is going.”

              Into US session: Yen stays strongest after paring gains, Sterling weakest

                Entering into US session, Yen remains the strongest one for today even though it has already pared back much of the “flash crash gains”. Risk aversion intensifies in European session and Swiss Franc is now the second strongest, followed by Euro and then Dollar. Sterling overtook Aussie’s place as the weakest one. Australian Dollar stays the second weakest after paring some of the spike losses, followed by Kiwi.

                Risk aversion will likely stay, at least at the beginning of risk aversion. After Apple’s sales outlook downgrade, DOW future is now trading down over -300 pts. But 10 year yield is back at 2.65, up from premarket low at 2.626. Stocks will be facing multiple tests in job data and ISM manufacturing in US session.

                In Europe, at the time of writing:

                • FTSE is down -0.33%
                • DAX is down -1.16%
                • CAC is down -1.09%
                • German 10 year bund yield is up 0.018 at 0.187, much better than yesterday’s low of 0.150

                Earlier in Asia, selloff was not to serious:

                • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.26%
                • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.04%
                • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.86%
                • Japan was still on holiday

                Fed’s Harker supports hiking rates above 5% before assessing disinflation progress

                  Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker expressed his support for raising interest rates above 5% and then assessing the impact on inflation. He noted yesterday, “I’m in the camp of getting up above 5 and then sitting there for a while.”

                  Harker acknowledged that recent inflation readings showed a slow disinflation process, which he described as “disappointing.” Despite this, he pointed out promising signs that Fed’s rate hikes are working.

                  He stated, “If we see inflation not budging, then I think we’ll have to take more action. But at this point, I don’t see why we would just continue to go up, up, up and then go, whoops! And then go down, down, down very quickly. Let’s sit there.”

                  Harker also emphasized the commitment to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target and highlighted that the full impact of monetary policy actions could take up to 18 months to work through the economy. He said, “We will continue to look closely at available data to determine what, if any, additional actions we may need to take.”

                  Fed Harker: The economy can withstand a measured, methodical approach to tightening

                    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday, “I anticipate a sequence of increases in the funds rate at a measured pace until we are confident that inflation is moving toward the Committee’s inflation target.”

                    “I still am in the camp that we can have, if not a soft landing, a safe landing,” he said. He expected the economy to grow between 2% and 3% this year, adding that “this economy can withstand a measured, methodical approach to tightening financial conditions.”

                    US PCE price index unchanged at 6.3% yoy, core PCE slowed to 4.7% yoy

                      US personal income rose 0.5% mom, or USD 113.4B, in May, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.2% mom, or USD 32.7B.

                      For the month, PCE price index rose 0.6% mom while core PCE price index rose 0.3% mom. For the 12-month period, PCE price index was unchanged at 6.3% yoy while core PCE price index slowed from 4.9% yoy to 4.7% yoy. Energy prices rose 35.8% yoy while food prices rose 11.0% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      Japan household spending dropped -6.1% yoy in Jan

                        Japan household spending dropped -6.1% yoy in January, much worse than expectation of -2.1% yoy. That’s also the second straight month of decrease, as spending was dragged down by a second state of emergency. “With people refraining from going out under the state of emergency, outlays for items such as suits and dresses fell,” a Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications official told reporters. Also released, nominal total cash earnings dropped -0.8% yoy in January, down for a 10th straight month.

                        In Q4, GDP growth was finalized at 2.8% qoq, 11.7% yoy. The figures were revised down form 3.0% qoq, 22.9% annualized. Capital expenditure grew 4.3% qoq. External demand rose 1.1% qoq. Private consumption rose 2.2% qoq. Price index rose 0.3% yoy.

                        The economy is expected to shrink in Q1 as it returned to pandemic restrictions. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga last week extended the emergency through March 21 for the Tokyo region.

                        Canada retail sales flat in Dec, ex-auto sales rose 0.5%

                          Canada retail sales were virtually unchanged at CAD 52.6B in December, matched expectations. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Sales were up in eight provinces. Ontario rose 0.4% as a result of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In Toronto, sales were up 1.8%. In Alberta, sales grew 1.0%. In Quebec, sales dropped -1.4%, largest monthly decline in more than a year.

                          Full release here.

                          France household consumption dropped sharply by -2.8% yoy in Oct

                            France household consumption dropped sharply by -2.8% mom in October, much worse than expectation of -0.9% mom. That’s also the largest decline since April 2021, primarily due to the sharp drop in energy consumption (-7.9%), but also stems from the decline in purchases of manufactured goods (-1.7%) and in food consumption (-1.4%).

                            All item CPI was unchanged at 6.2% yoy in November. Food price accelerated from1 2.0% yoy to 12.2% yoy. Energy prices slowed from 19.1% yoy to 18.5% yoy. Manufacturing products rose from 4.2 yoy to 4.4% yoy while services dropped from 3.1% yoy to 3.0% yoy.

                            Q3 GDP grew 0.2% qoq, unrevised.

                            US initial jobless claims fell to 198k, vs exp 210k

                              US initial jobless claims fell -13k to 198k in the week ending October 14, below expectation of 210k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -1k to 206k.

                              Continuing claims rose 29k to 1743k in the week ending October 7. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 19k to 1694k.

                              Full US jobless claims release here.

                              US said to consider interim China trade deal

                                According to a Bloomberg report, based on unnamed sources, US President Donald Trump’s advisers are considering an interim trade deal with China, that would involve delaying or even rolling back some tariffs. In return, China has to offer commitments on intellectual property protection and agricultural product purchases.

                                Separately,  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Trump is a “negotiator” and he’s “prepared to keep these tariffs in place. He’s prepared to raise tariffs if we need to raise tariffs”. Though, Mnuchin is “cautiously optimistic” about upcoming meetings with China’s trade team.

                                Japan CPI core dropped to -1% yoy in Dec, worst since 2010

                                  Japan CPI core (all item ex-fresh food) dropped further to -1.0% yoy in December, down from -0.2% yoy, but was above expectation of -1.1% yoy. That’s still the biggest annual decline in core inflation since September 2010. Headline CPI (all items) dropped to -1.2% yoy, down from -0.9% yoy. CPI core-core (all item ex-fresh food and energy) dropped to -0.4% yoy, down from -0.3% yoy.

                                  “I don’t think the risk of Japan sliding back into deflation is high,” BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda insisted yesterday. “But potential growth may be falling so we need to look at the impact (on prices) carefully.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  ECB Lautenschlaeger: First hike around mid 2019 not entirely out of ballpark

                                    ECB hawk Sabine Lautenschlaeger said that “June might be the month to decide once and for all to gradually end net asset purchases by the end of this year.” And, “a first hike around the middle of 2019 is not entirely out of the ballpark.”

                                    Despite recent soft batch of data, she emphasized that “we are seeing that the pace of growth has become more moderate, but we are not seeing a turning point”. And, “we remain confident in the strength of the economy.”

                                    UK PM Johnson: Don’t forget the extra lubricaiton of GBP 39B in no-deal Brexit

                                      Boris Johnson is formally appointed by Queen Elizabeth II as UK Prime Minister today. In the remarks outside 10 Downing Street, he said to “fulfil the repeated promises of parliament to the people and come out of the EU on October 31, no ifs or buts.”

                                      On the possibility of no-deal Brexit, he emphasized “don’t forget that in the event of a no-deal outcome we will have that extra lubrication of the 39 billion pounds.”

                                      Weaker than expected data show further cool down in China

                                        A batch of weaker than expected July economic data from China showed the economy has cooled further.

                                        Retail sales grew 8.8% yoy, down from prior 9.0% and missed expectation of 9.2% yoy. Industrial production grew 6.0% yoy, unchanged from prior 6.0% yoy but missed expectation of 6.3% yoy. Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 5.5% ytd yoy, down from 6.0% yoy and missed expectation of 6.0% yoy. Unemployment rate rose to 5.1%, up from 4.8%.

                                        In particular, fixed asset investment growth was the slowest on record since early 1996. That suggested weakening business confidence that could be hurt by rising trade tensions with the US, as well as China’s own deleveraging policy. Weak retail sales highlights the difficulty of shift focus to domestic consumption for growth momentum, in case of a full-blown trade war.

                                        EUR/CHF to gyrate lower despite positive German data

                                          Economic data from Germany are generally positive. Retail sales rose 1.9% mom in November, versus expectation of -2.2% mom contraction. Destatis added that retail turnover in 202 is expected to be between 3.9% and 4.3% higher than in 2019.

                                          Unemployment dropped -37k in December, versus expectation of 10k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%, versus expectation of 6.2%.

                                          Euro has little reactions to the data. EUR/CHF’s choppy decline from 1.0890 is still in progress for 1.0737 support. Break will suggest completion of whole rise from 1.0658 and bring deeper fall back to this support. This will remain the favor case for now, as long as 1.0830 minor resistance holds.