Thu, Sep 19, 2024 @ 07:51 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 423

Live Comments

Most popular

UK May pledges to respond to Brexit vote results quickly

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman reiterated the stance that “the prime minister said the government is the servant of the people and she believes passionately that we must deliver on the result of the 2016 referendum”

    And, “she added that after the vote has taken place, she would respond quickly to the result.”

    Bundesbank Nagel: Further policy action needed to halt and reverse rising inflation expectations

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned in an interview, “our monthly surveys of firms and households are showing a significant increase in long-term inflation expectations.”

      “I firmly believe that we need to take further monetary policy action to halt and reverse this trend,” he added.

      Nagel also said that allowing inflation to become entrenched would be even worse. “Then we would be forced to tighten policy all the more sharply further down the line, thus placing even more of a strain on the economy.”

      “I am optimistic that Germany will be able to avoid a severe economic slump and we will get off lightly with a mild downturn. And I am confident that we will be able to tame the high rate of inflation over the medium term”, he noted.

      “There is a distinct risk of stronger second-round effects because the higher wage deals that are being reached could prolong the prevailing period of high inflation rates”

      Full interview here.

      Australia retail sales rose 3.9% mom in Oct, still short of pre-delta level

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        Australia retail sales rose 4.9% mom in October, above expectation of 2.5% mom. That’s the strongest rise since Victoria’s first lockdown bounce back in November 2020, with retail turnover rising to its highest level since June 2021.

        “Retail performance continues to be tied to state lockdowns as this month’s recovery was driven by the end of lockdowns in New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory,” Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics said.

        “With lockdown ending on October 11, New South Wales sales rose 13.3 per cent returning to the levels seen in the months immediately prior to the Delta outbreak, while Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory remain below pre-Delta levels.”

        “Although sales have bounced back strongly following the end of lockdowns, it is important to note that overall retail turnover has not yet reached the level of May 2021, the month prior to the Delta outbreak.”

        Full release here.

        Will BoC’s Macklem Pave the Way for June Rate Reduction?

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          BoC is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 5.00% today and the main focus is whether Governor Tiff Macklem would start to change the tune to lay down the groundwork for a June rate cut. With new economic projections on the table, this meeting presents an opportune moment for such indications.

          A recent Reuters poll revealed a consensus among economists, with 27 out of 38 forecasting a 25 bps cut by BoC in June. Meanwhile, 7 expected the cut in July and 4 in September. By the year’s end, the expectation is for a 100 bps cumulative reduction, bringing the rate down to 4.00%.

          Despite these anticipations, a noteworthy portion of economists — 13 out of 16 — who responded to an additional query, suggested that the timing of the first rate cut is more likely to be delayed than they expected. Moreover, 11 of them believe there’s a heightened risk of fewer rate cuts than initially forecasted.

          More on BoC here.

          While USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3176 has persisted in the last few months, momentum is clearly lacking as seen in both the structure of the rise, as well as in D MACD. Break of 1.3477 support the first signal that such rebound has completed as a corrective move. Nevertheless, firm break of the upper channel line will likely prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance. Today’s BoC decision is poised to significantly influence the currency’s next move.

          Japans’ export contracts in Jul, shipments to China fell for 8th month

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            Japan’s exports experienced a dip of -0.3% yoy to JPY 8725B in July. This contraction is noteworthy as it breaks a growth streak that has lasted for over two years since February 2021.

            Diving deeper into the data, while shipments to US and Europe saw a positive trajectory with respective rises of 13.5% yoy and 12.4% yoy, the trade dynamics with China narrated a different story.

            Exports to China, Japan’s primary trading ally, plummeted by -13.4%, marking the steepest decline since January. Notably, this reflects an ongoing trend with shipments to China diminishing for the eighth consecutive month, subsequent to a -10.9% yoy drop in June.

            On the import front, Japan registered a decline of -13.5% yoy to JPY 8804B. This marks the fourth consecutive month of declining imports and is the most significant dip since September 2020. The downturn can be partly attributed to the decreasing commodities prices.

            With imports exceeding exports, trade balance for the month ended in a deficit of JPY -78.7B.

            When observing the figures in seasonally adjusted terms, both exports and imports displayed a 2.0% mom rise, amounting to JPY 8460B and JPY 9018B respectively. Consequently, trade deficit widened slightly, reaching JPY -557B.

            ECB Visco: We have to avoid too early withdrawals of policies

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said, policies have to remain extremely accommodating on the fiscal side as well as on the monetary side as we’re prepared to do for the euro area as a whole… We are here to consider the risks of stop and go and we will have to avoid too early withdrawals of policies. ”

              Also a Governing Council member, Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme will “run until the crisis phase is over, and at least until next June.” “Given the uncertain situation today, it would be a mistake to decide an end date now” he added.

              US initial jobless claims dropped to 5245k, continuing claims hit 11.98m

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                US initial jobless claims dropped -1370k to 5245k in the week ending April 11. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1241k to 5509k. Continuing claims rose 4.53m to 11.98m in the week ending April 4. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2.57m to 6.07m.

                Full release here.

                US retail sales rose 0.5%, ex-auto sales rose 0.4%. Sharp upside revision in May figures

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  The batch of economic data from the US is mixed. Dollar recovers slightly but remains in red for today in general.

                  Headline retail sales rose 0.5% mom in June, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Prior month’s figure was revised sharply higher from 0.8% mom to 1.3% mom.

                  Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom, matched expectations. Prior month’s figure was also revised sharply higher from 0.9% to 1.4%.

                  Empire state manufacturing index, general business conditions, dropped to 22.6 in July, down from 25.0 but beat expectation of 20.3. Expectations six months ahead dropped -7.8 to 31.1.

                  Looking at the details of current indicators:

                  • New orders dropped -3.1 to 18.2.
                  • Shipments dropped -8.9 to 14.6.
                  • Unfilled orders dropped -9.3 to 0.0.
                  • Delivery time dropped -7.2 to 6.0.
                  • Inventories dropped -9.7 to -4.3.
                  • Price paid dropped -10 to 42.7.
                  • Price received dropped -1 to 22.2.
                  • Number of employees dropped -1.8 to 17.2.
                  • Average employee workweek dropped -6.4 to 5.6.

                  US GDP expands 1.6% annualized in Q1, below expectations

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, missing expectation of 2.1%, sharply lower than Q4’s 3.4%.

                    Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

                    Price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1% in Q1, compared with an increase of 1.9% in the Q4. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4%, compared with an increase of 1.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, PCE price index increased 3.7%, compared with an increase of 2.0%.

                    Full US GDP release here.

                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 190k

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 190k in the week ending January 14, better than expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims decreased 6.5k to 206k.

                      Continuing claims rose 17k to 1647k in the week ending January 7. Four-week moving average of continuing claims declined 5.5k to 1673k.

                      Full release here.

                      ECB’s Scicluna: March could be it for rate cut

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        In an interview, ECB Governing Council member Edward Scicluna pointed to March economic projections as a crucial factor that could justify a shift in policy, opening the door for rate cuts. “March could be it,” he suggested, “We’ll see how many think that there’s no need to wait for June.”

                        Acknowledging the “bumpy” path toward achieving ECB’s disinflation objectives, Scicluna emphasized the clear trend of declining inflation. “You should see the writing on the wall and admit objectively that the trend is going down,” he stated.

                        Despite the possibility of justifying a hold on rate cuts due to various concerns, including geopolitical tensions, Scicluna argued for a more direct approach: “You have to make a judgment; you don’t find these excuses.”

                        “Let’s face reality — of course, risks are flying all around us,” he said. “But when you get a comprehensive look at things, prices are falling.”

                        “At a time when demand is falling, I believe you can let off the pedal a bit,” Scicluna said.

                        US GDP grew 2.6% annualized in Q3, slightly above expectations

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          US GDP grew at annualized rate of 2.6% in Q3, above expectation of 2.4%. PCE price index growth slowed from 9.0% to 4.1%, below expectation of 5.4%.

                          BEA noted that the increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

                          Full release here.

                          BoJ Kuroda: PM Kishida didn’t say anything special about exchange rate

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            After a meeting with Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said “I told the prime minister that recent rapid yen moves were undesirable”.

                            “(Kishida) did not say anything special but I told him that it was important for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals,” he added. “I’ll fully watch currency movements carefully from now on as well and will appropriately respond to them while liaising with the government.”

                            NZIER: RBNZ rate to peak at 5% next year

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              In the November Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ projected that interest rate would peak at 5.5% while the economy would start contracting in Q2 2023 until Q1 2024.

                              NZIER said it expected the negative impact of higher interest rates on demand will “become more apparent around mid-2023”. With that, RBNZ “will not need to increase interest rates by as much as it currently expects to”.

                              “Nonetheless, we expect further increases in the OCR and for it to peak at 5 percent over the coming year,” NZIER added.

                              Full NZIER statement here.

                              Fed’s Bowman flags energy as potential setback to disinflation progress; advocates more hike

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Fed Michelle Bowman has made her hawkish stance clear on the pressing issue of inflation that continues to grip the US economy. In a speech today, Bowman emphasized the persistence of inflationary pressures, signaling the need for a more restrictive monetary policy to anchor inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

                                “Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way,” Bowman stated.

                                Bowman pointed to the latest inflation reading based on the PCE index, noting a rise in overall inflation driven, in part, by escalating oil prices. “I see a continued risk that high energy prices could reverse some of the progress we have seen on inflation in recent months,” she warned.

                                Also, Bowman cited the Summary of Economic Projections released during the September FOMC meeting, where “the median participant expects inflation to stay above 2 percent at least until the end of 2025.” This expectation of prolonged inflationary pressures aligns with Bowman’s perspective that “further policy tightening” will be instrumental in steering inflation back towards target.

                                Full speech of Fed Bowman here.

                                RBA Lowe: Any increase in interest rates, they’re some time away

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  RBA Governor Philip Lowe delivered a speech titled “Productivity, Wages and Prosperity” today. There he pointed out that “over the past couple of years, output growth has been subdued, but employment growth has been strong.” And, it’s productivity that’s holding the economy back. Low pointed to strong employment growth in household services, but output per hour worked was only 4% higher than it was in 2010. In contrast, the output per hour worked was up 13% to 16% in other industry groups.

                                  He urged “strong ongoing focus on training, education and the accumulation of human capital” to bring up the overall productivity. And he emphasized that “our national comparative advantage will increasingly be built on the quality of our ideas and our human capital.”

                                  Regarding monetary policy, Lowe said the economy is “moving in the right direction” and the next move in interest rate will be “up, not down”. But, “the environment in which interest rates are increasing is also likely to be one in which people’s incomes are growing more quickly than they are now.”And, “any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away.”

                                  BoE to assess the government’s growth plan at “next scheduled meeting”

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement that it’s “monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.

                                    He pointed to the UK government’s Growth Plan announced on Friday and he “welcome the Government’s commitment to sustainable economic growth”.

                                    The MPC will make a full assessment “at its next scheduled meeting” of the impact of the plan on demand and inflation, and the fall in Sterling, and “act” accordingly.

                                    Full statement here.

                                    Ifo Spring Forecast: German economy to contract slightly in 2023

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      According to the Spring 2023 economic forecast released by Germany’s Ifo, the country’s economy is expected to contract by -0.1% in 2023 before growing 1.7% in 2024. Headline inflation is projected to slow slightly to 6.2% in 2023 before dropping to 2.2% in 2024. However, core inflation, which excludes energy prices, is expected to rise further to 6.3% in 2023 and then decline to 2.8% in 2024.

                                      Ifo stated that the “subdued performance of the global economy is dampening German exports,” while high inflation rates are “depressing consumer spending and construction activity through declining purchasing power and significantly increased financing costs.” The report also noted that inflation has become increasingly broad-based over the past year, remaining at historic highs for several months. While the direct contribution of energy prices has weakened, inflation in all other goods and services has increased steadily, reaching 7.6% in February.

                                      The report added, “In addition to higher production costs passed on by companies to consumers, a noticeable widening of profit margins in some, particularly consumer-related, areas of the economy also contributed to this.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK TM Fox: 60-40 chance of no-deal Brexit due to EU intransigence

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        UK Trade Minister Liam Fox said in an interview with the Sunday Times that he saw “not much more than 60-40” chance of a no-deal Brexit. And he put the blame on EU as the “intransigence of the (European) commission is pushing us towards no deal.” He also warned that if EU chooses “theological obsessions of the unelected” over “economic wellbeing of the people”, then it’s a “bureaucrats’ Brexit, not a people’s Brexit”. He went further and said it’s up to EU to choose “ideological purity” or “real economies:”

                                        Domestically, Fox also criticized that “there are people trying to undermine, to block and to thwart Brexit and having fought so long and hard to get to this point, I don’t want anything done to jeopardise our exit from the EU.” He added “the most important thing is that we actually leave the EU in March of next year. And my job is making sure that Britain is match fit for whatever Brexit outcome we have.”

                                        China posted solid production but weak retail sales data

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          After a delay amid the 20th Communist Party Congress last week, China released a batch of economic data today.

                                          GDP grew 3.9% yoy in Q3, and beat expectation of 3.3% yoy. In September, industrial grew 6.3% yoy, faster than August’s 4.2% yoy, and beat expectation of 4.9% yoy. Retail sales, however, rose only 2.5% yoy, slowed from August’s 5.4% yoy, and missed expectation of 3.1% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 5.9% ytd yoy, below expectation of 6.0%.

                                          Also released, in USD term, exports rose 10.7% yoy in September. Imports rose 0.3% yoy. Trade surplus widened from USD 79.4B to USD 84.0B, above expectation of USD 81B.

                                          1...422423424...692Page 423 of 692

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.