Canada GDP grew 1.2% mom in Aug, still -5% below pre-pandemic level

    Canada GDP rose 1.2% mom in August, above expectation of 0.9% mom. That’s the fourth consecutive month of increase. Yet, overall economic activity was still about -5% below February’s pre-pandemic level.

    Goods-producing industries grew 0.5% mom while services-producing industries rose 1.5% mom. 15 of 20 industrial sectors posed increases while two were essentially unchanged.

    Full release here.

    IMF: Disruptive Brexit could lead to a significantly worse outcome

      In an IMF report on UK, the organization expect growth to remain “moderate in the near term”, averaging around 1.5% in 2018 and 2019. However, it wanted that ” A more disruptive departure from the EU could lead to a significantly worse outcome, especially if it were to occur without an implementation period. “. On the other hand, “an agreement featuring fewer impediments to trade than currently expected could buoy business and consumer confidence, leading to faster growth.”.

      IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde also said, “compared with today’s smooth single market, all the likely Brexit scenarios will have costs for the economy and to a lesser extent as well for the EU.” And she warned that “The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the costlier it will be. This should be fairly obvious, but it seems that sometimes it is not.”

      In addition to Brexit, UK also faces a range of other economic challenges. These include “persistently lackluster productivity growth, large public debt, and the wide current account deficit.” Nonetheless, UK’s “sound macroeconomic framework, regulatory environment, and deep capital and flexible labor markets will be advantages in implementing reforms to address them.”

      Full report here.

      UK Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond urged the government to listen to the “clear warnings” of the IMF of no-deal Brexit. Though, he also noted that no-deal outcome is unlikely even though it’s not impossible.

      Australia retail sales dropped -1.8% mom in Jun, led by Victoria and NSW

        Australia retail sales dropped -1.8% mom in June, unchanged from preliminary reading. Over the June quarter, sales rose 0.8% qoq.

        ABS said: “States under longer periods of restrictions for the month saw a larger fall in their June turnover. The largest falls were in Victoria (-4.0 per cent), New South Wales (-2.0 per cent), and Queensland (-0.9 per cent). Other states and territories that saw stay-at-home orders for a least one day of the month included Western Australia (0.1 per cent), and the Northern Territory (-1.8 per cent).”

        Full release here.

        Eurozone exports rose 20.1% yoy in Jun, imports rose 43.5% yoy

          Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world rose 20.1% yoy to EUR 252.2B in June. Imports rose 43.5% yoy to EUR 276.8B. Trade balance came in at EUR -24.6B deficit. Intra-eurozone trade rose 24.2% yoy to EUR 236.4B.

          In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -0.1% mom to EUR 241.8B. Imports rose 1.3% mom to EUR 272.7B. Trade deficit widened from EUR -27.2B to EUR -30.8B, versus expectation of EUR -20.0B. Intra-eurozone trade was unchanged at EUR 224.1B.

          Full release here.

          Emergency bill to avoid no-deal Brexit fast-tracked through Commons by 313 to 312

            An emergency bill to prevent no-deal Brexit was fast-tracked through the House of Commons on Wednesday, by just one vote – 313 ayes to 312 noes. The cross-party bill was spearheaded by Labour’s Yvette Cooper and the Conservative Oliver Letwin. under it, a legal mechanism is created where the Commons can instruct the Prime Minister to see Article 50 extension in absence of an approval resolution of Brexit withdrawal agreement. It also restrict the Prime Minister’s discretion about whether and when to seek and Article 50 extension. The bill will now be sent to the House of Lords on Thursday and passage is generally expected.

            EU’s objection to more short extension is rather clear though. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker already told the European Parliament that “the 12th of April is the ultimate deadline for approval of the Withdrawal Agreement by the House of Commons.” And, “if it has not done so by then, no further short extension will be possible.” First Vice President Frans Timmermans also told Germany’s Die Welt newspaper that “we cannot forever continue this way in the Brexit negotiations and always extend by two weeks.” He said, “the British parliament must now make a decision and finally say what London wants.”

            Meanwhile, PM Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy held constructive yet inconclusive meeting. Corbyn described Wednesday’s discussions as “useful but inconclusive.” Labour spokesperson said “we have had constructive exploratory discussions about how to break the Brexit deadlock”, and “we have agreed a programme of work between our teams to explore the scope for agreement.”

            China retail sales growth slowed to lowest since 2003, industrial production and fixed asset investment missed too

              Despite the rebound in US stocks overnight, Asian markets are mixed. Upside of recovery was capped by poor data from China. It’s now rather apparent that the rebound in March was just temporary due to seasonal reasons. The slowdown in China is in place and could even worsen further as trade war with US drags on.

              China industrial production growth slowed to 5.4% yoy in April, missed expectation of 6.5% yoy. That’s also sharp deterioration from 4-year high of 8.5% yoy in March. Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 6.1% ytd yoy, down from 6.3% and missed expectation of 6.4%.

              More seriously, retail sales growth slowed to 7.2% yoy, down from 8.7% yoy and missed expectation of 7.2% yoy. That’s also the lowest growth since May 2003. That dents hope of shifting the burden of the economy from exports to domestic demand growth. Unemployment rate, though, dropped to 5.2%.

              Joachim Nagel named as new Bundesbank president

                German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said said today that he and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed Joachim Nagel as the new Bundesbank President. Nagel, a former Bundesbank board member, is expected to take over on January 1 from Jens Weidmann.

                Linder said on twitter, “In view of inflation risks, the importance of a stability-oriented monetary policy is growing. He is an experienced personality who ensures the continuity of #Bundesbank”.

                “Nagel can be trusted to continue the German Bundesbank tradition in the debates in the ECB,” Friedrich Heinemann, an expert at the ZEW economic research institute hailed. “He has extensive monetary policy and financial expertise, which is essential for today’s complex monetary policy decisions.”

                Australia retail sales rose 0.9% mom in Apr, driven by higher food prices

                  Australia retail sales rose 0.9% mom in April, slightly below expectation of 1.0% mom. For the 12-month period, sales rose 9.6% yoy.

                  New South Wales was the only state or territory to record a fall, down -0.3%. Queensland had the largest rise in retail turnover, up 1.6%. Turnover also rose in Victoria (1.1%), Western Australia (2.2 %), South Australia (1.4%), Tasmania (2.0%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.5%) and the Northern Territory (0.7%).

                  ABS said: “The strength in retail turnover is being driven by spending across the food industries. High food prices have combined with increased household spending over the April holiday period as more people are travelling, dining out and holding family gatherings.

                  Full release here.

                  UK PM May confirms Brexit vote delay, will seek change in backstop with EU

                    UK Prime Minister Theresa May formally confirms in the Commons that the Brexit vote will be delayed. She said, the tomorrow’s vote went ahead, it would be lost by a wide margin. May said she’ll hold emergency talks with EU to discuss possible changes to the backstop. And, she pledges that changes to the backstop would ensure it’s not permanent.

                    The second Brexit referendum, May warned that “this risks dividing the country again when as a House we should be striving to bring it back together”. And she added that ” if you want to stay part of the customs union, be honest that this this involves accepting free movement.” Or, “if you want to leave with no deal, be honest that this will cause significant damage in those parts of the county that can least afford it.”

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                    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.6, input costs inflation at three-month high

                      Japan’s PMI Manufacturing remained stagnant at 49.6 in August, indicating a third consecutive month of sectoral contraction. According to Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the rate of deterioration was “unchanged from July and only fractional,” primarily due to a “slower reduction in new orders.”

                      The report highlighted concerning trends in cost pressures. “Input prices rose at a quicker pace for the first time since September 2022, pushing the rate of input cost inflation to a three-month high,” Bhatti stated. The escalation in input costs was specifically attributed to high raw material prices, labor costs, and a weakened yen.

                      Despite these pressures, the report found that manufacturers increased their selling prices at the “weakest rate in two years,” indicating that companies may be absorbing the additional costs instead of transferring them to consumers.

                      The employment situation also emerged as a point of concern. Bhatti noted, “The rate of job creation broadly stalled, with the latest increase the slowest recorded in the 29-month sequence.”

                      Full Japan PMI manufacturing release here.

                      BoC stands pat, keeps hawkish bias

                        As anticipated, BoC keeps its overnight rate unchanged at 5.00%, alongside the Bank Rate at 5.25% and the deposit rate at 5.00%. Despite the steady rates, the tone of the announcement underscored ongoing concerns about inflation, coupled with a softer outlook on economic growth.

                        BoC explicitly stated that it remains “concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures,” signaling a continued tightening bias. In its words, the central bank is “prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed,” highlighting its willingness to act if inflation doesn’t abate.

                        Full BoC statement here.

                        RBA minutes reiterate patient stance on interest rate

                          In the minutes of March 1 meeting, RBA reiterated that it will not hike cash rate “until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target band. Now, it was “too early to conclude that” inflation is “sustainably within the target band”.

                          There were “uncertainties about how persistent the pick-up in inflation”. Wage growth “remained modest”, and “it was likely to be some time before aggregate wages growth would be at a rate consistent with inflation being sustainably at target.”

                          Thus, RBA is “prepared to be patient” on lifting interest rate.

                          Full minutes here.

                          ECB Lagarde and Panetta discussed climate-related monetary policy

                            ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank was creating a team of around 10 staff, reporting directly to her, to set the agenda on climate-related topics. “Climate change can create short-term volatility in output and inflation through extreme weather events, and if left unaddressed can have long-lasting effects on growth and inflation,” Lagarde noted.

                            Executive Board member Fabio Panetta also said, ECB has already taken steps on contributing to environmental policies in the implementation of monetary policy. For example, “sustainable finance instruments – the sustainability-linked bonds – among the collateral that can be used in refinancing operations” were included.

                            Additionally, “the ECB has to protect its balance sheet from the financial risks caused by climate change that are not correctly priced by the markets,” Panetta added. “By performing its own analysis of these risks on the basis of rigorous methodologies, the ECB can contribute to the accurate valuation of these climate-related risks and promote awareness among investors, thereby helping to combat climate change. These issues are currently being considered as part of our monetary policy strategy review.

                            BoC press conference live stream

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                              ADP 235k beat expectation 200k, USD/JPY slightly higher

                                USD/JPY slightly higher as ADP job report beat expectation.

                                ADP Feb: 235k vs exp 200K  vs prior 244k

                                But it remains to be seen if USD/JPY could sustain gain.

                                Into European session: Trade optimism fails to lift sentiments, Sterling stuck in range

                                  The financial markets are generally mixed today. News regarding US-China trade negotiation are generally positive with even speculations that a Trump-Xi summit could be announced as soon as today. But they provide no additional lift to market sentiments. Meanwhile, the meeting between UK Prime Minister Theresa May yielded no conclusive results. Meanwhile, it should be noted that economic data have been rather bad so far. For example, just released, German factory orders dropped sharply by -4.2% mom in February. Sentiments could turn sour again if more data disappointment come in.

                                  In the currency markets, Sterling is broadly higher today so far. But again, the Pound is just staying in familiar range against Dollar, Euro and Yen, and there is no sign of a breakout yet. New Zealand Dollar and Yen are the next strongest. Canadian Dollar is currently the weakest one for today, followed by Dollar.

                                  In Asia:

                                  • Nikkei closed up 0.05.
                                  • Hong Kong HSI is down -0.53%.
                                  • China Shanghai SSE is up 0.65%.
                                  • Singapore Strait Times is up 0.14%.
                                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0073 at -0.043, staying negative.

                                  Overnight:

                                  • DOW rose 0.15%.
                                  • S&P 500 rose 0.21%.
                                  • NASDAQ rose 0.60%.
                                  • 10-year yield rose 0.036 to 2.517, back above 2.5 handle.

                                  UK retail sales dropped -0.5% mom, linked to impact of food prices and cost of living

                                    UK retail sales volume dropped -0.5% mom in May, better than expectation of -0.9% mom. Ex-fuel sales dropped -0.7% mom, better than expectation of -1.4% mom.

                                    Over the 12-month period, retail sales dropped -4.7% yoy, versus expectation of -4.5% yoy. Ex-fuel sales dropped -5.7% yoy, versus expectation of -5.1% yoy.

                                    ONS said: “The fall in sales volumes over the month was because of food stores, which fell by 1.6%; reduced spending in food stores seems to be linked to the impact of rising food prices and the cost of living.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    ECB Villeroy said rates nearing a high plateau

                                      Speaking at a conference in Aix-en-Provence, France, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that Eurozone was nearing the “high point” of interest rates, a level expected to be sustained to allow full transmission of monetary policy effects.

                                      Villeroy added, “But when I say high point this isn’t a peak, rather it will be a high plateau, on which we will have to remain for a sufficiently long time to fully transmit all the effects of monetary policy.”

                                      Joining him on the panel was fellow Governing Council member Mario Centeno, who underlined ECB’s focus on headline inflation, noting its more rapid than anticipated decrease. However, he also highlighted the importance of core inflation, which he acknowledged was not dropping as swiftly.

                                      Centeno stressed, “We target headline inflation, that’s very important. And headline inflation is coming down, actually it’s coming down faster than the way up.”

                                      Centeno went on to add, “Core inflation stands out as a very important indicator. It’s not coming down as fast as headline inflation, but we also need to remember that in the way up it played exactly the same trajectory. So we need to remain confident too in the way we are fighting inflation.”

                                      ECB Holzmann favors first hike in summer, second by year end

                                        ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann told Swiss newspaper NZZ, “When it comes to the interest rate outlook, the ECB has always signalled that an interest rate hike should not take place until shortly after the bond purchases have ended.”

                                        “But it would also be possible to take a first interest rate step in the summer before the end of the purchases and a second at the end of the year. I would favour that.”

                                        Also, Holzmann said and exit from negative interest rate would be an “important signal” to the society and markets. He would likely to see two rate hikes by the end of this year or early 2023. But, “some of my colleagues would perhaps be even more progressive here, while others would be more cautious,” he added.

                                        “I think that a key interest rate of very roughly 1.5% in 2024 could be realistic, although that may well shift forward or backward somewhat,” he said, adding that 1.5% would be a benchmark for neutral monetary policy.

                                        BoE to continue tightening today, GBP/CHF extending rebound

                                          BoE is widely expected to raise the Bank rate again by 25bps to 0.75% today. The main focus is the voting. Last time, a slim majority of five MPC members won the vote and hiked only 25bps. Four members had indeed voted for a 50bps hike.

                                          With Russia invasion of Ukraine, inflation would likely stay higher for longer, and might even peak above BoE’s own projection of 7.25% in April. Policy makers are clearly getting more alerted on the outlook and some might push for front-loading the rate hikes. But others could prefer to wait for new economic projections in May before acting more aggressively. The voting would reveal the balance inside MPC.

                                          Here are some previews:

                                          GBP/CHF rebounded quickly after war triggered selloff. A short term bottom is in place at 1.2112 and further rally is expected as long as 1.2255 minor support holds. But a strong break of 1.2598 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the down trend from 1.3070. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, with prospect of another fall through 1.2112.