New Zealand manufacturing rose 3.1% yoy, best Q3 on record

    New Zealand manufacturing sales rose 3.1% yoy in Q3 in volume terms. Eight of the 13 manufacturing industries had higher sales volumes comparing to a year ago. “In June these industries were heavily impacted by COVID-19, however, in September, levels have rebounded and are in fact higher than any other September quarter on record,” business insights manager Sue Chapman said. “This could be due to a rise in demand and more stability in these industries.”

    Full release here.

    Australia NAB business conditions rose to 25, confidence dropped to 5

      Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped from 10 to 5 in September. Business Conditions rose from 22 to 25. Trading conditions rose from 29 to 38. Profitability conditions was unchanged at 19. Employment conditions dropped from 17 to 16.

      “Conditions are now higher than their pre-COVID peak, which shows just how strong demand is at present,” said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster. “The current level of conditions are only exceeded by the post-lockdown surge in early 2021. Clearly, consumers are still finding a way to keep spending, with the very strong labour market, savings buffers and a broader post-pandemic recovery all playing a role.”

      “Confidence eased in the month but is still around the long-run average in the history of the survey,” said Oster. “The confidence index has been volatile recently but is clearly a little lower than it was early in the year when the passing of the Omicron wave was providing a strong reason for optimism. Still, businesses are far from pessimistic.”

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 45.7, deepens recession despite bright spots in Spain and Netherlands

        Eurozone’s manufacturing sector remains entrenched in recession as April’s PMI figures highlight ongoing challenges and disparities within the region. The overall Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone was finalized at 45.7, a slight decrease from March’s 46.1.

        Among the member states, Greece led with a PMI of 55.2, though it marked a three-month low for the country. Spain and the Netherlands exhibited positive trends, with Spain reaching a 22-month high at 52.2 and the Netherlands achieving a 20-month high at 51.3. Conversely, major economies like Germany, France, and Italy continued to struggle. Germany’s PMI slightly improved to a two-month high of 42.5, and France’s was a three-month low at 45.3, despite a slight uptick from the flash estimate.

        Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted the manufacturing sector is prolonging its drawn-out recession into April.” He highlighted the significant downturn in new orders, which he described as “a rapid decline unmatched in speed over the past four months and devoid of international support.” De la Rubia also pointed out the concerning trends in the capital goods sector, which is usually a bellwether for broader industrial health but has been “hit particularly hard” in the current cycle.

        Spain stands out as an anomaly within the Eurozone, continuing to demonstrate economic resilience with sustained growth in its manufacturing sector. This divergence is notable, especially against the backdrop of more subdued economic performances in other major Eurozone economies like Germany, France, and Italy, which have failed to gain similar momentum.

        Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

        BoE’s Mann signals market misalignment on rate cut expectations

          BoE MPC member Catherine Mann cast doubts on the financial market’s anticipation of interest rate cuts in the near term, asserting that such expectations might be overly ambitious.

          Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Mann directly addressed the discrepancy, stating, “They’re pricing in too many cuts — that would be my personal view — and so in some sense, I don’t have to cut because the market already is.”

          Mann further elaborated on the unique economic conditions within the UK that challenge the notion of an early rate cut, especially in comparison with the US and Eurozone.

          She explained that “wage dynamics in the UK are stronger and more persistent than the wage dynamics in either the United States or the euro area. Underlying services dynamics are also stickier more persistent than either the US or the euro area.”

          Thus, “it’s hard to argue that the BOE would be ahead of the other two regions, particularly the United States,” Mann added.

          UK Truss determined to reach a trade deal with Canada by the end of the year

            UK Trade Minister Liz Truss told the Parliament today, “we’re determined to reach a deal with Canada before the end of the year — it will help our trade from cars to beef to fish to whiskey.” “I do hope that in the future, as Canada is a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership which has advanced chapters in areas like data and digital, that we will be able to go much further and build a much deeper relationship with Canada,” she added. The UK Department for International Trade also said negotiations are “at an advanced stage and progressing well.”

            Last week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also said a trade deal could be reached by January 1. “I know that rolling over and demonstrating free trade deals is important for the U.K. government. Canada is a really easy one. We’re there for it. We’d like to do it, so I am very hopeful that it’s going to get done but that’s up to the U.K. government,” Trudeau said.

            FOMC previews and recap of September projections

              Despite all the political pressure, Fed is widely expected to raise federal funds rate by 25bps to 2.25-2.50% today. The meeting bears much more importance then just the rate hike, as investors would be eager to know Fed’s rate path in 2019, which has become pretty unsure recently. The statement, voting, and economic projections could all play a part in shaping market expectations.

              In the November statement, Fed concluded by saying that “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”

              That is, Fed based its decision on a wide range of meaningful data rather than just a few pieces of them. While Chair Jerome Powell might put more emphasis on data dependency, the statement itself is clear and comprehensive enough that doesn’t warrant a change.

              Fed’s Septemebr projections.

              On economic projections, the most important part is federal funds rate projections. As a recap, back in September, the longer run federal funds rate was estimated to be at 3.0%, with central tendency at 2.8-3.0% and 2.5-3.5%. Despite financial market volatility and signs of peaking growth momentum, it still a consensus among fed policies to lift rate to neutral. And if we take the central tendency as consensus, there should be at least one to two more rate hikes onwards.

              But timing is the question. For 2019, the median federal funds rate projection was at 3.1%, with central tendency at 2.9-3.4%. That means, members leaned towards two to three more hikes in 2019, if economic conditions favored. At the same time, that would mean interest rate would go pass neutral a little.

              While we won’t expect many changes to the projections, we won’t be surprised to see some. And changes or not, Dollar would be volatile on the figures.

              Suggested readings on FOMC:

              Japan GDP grew 0.2% in Q4 only, missed expectations

                Japan GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.5% qoq. In annualized term, GDP rose 0.6%, below expectation of 2.0%. GDP deflator rose 1.1% yoy, matched expectations. For the full year of 2022, GDP expanded 1.1%, slowed from 2021’s 2.1%.

                Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said after the release, “Rising inflation and the global slowdown are risks… But corporate spending appetite hasn’t cooled … we’re not too pessimistic about the outlook.”

                Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “With global monetary tightening continuing, the slowdown in overseas economies could still drag on Japan’s economy as well. We also need to pay attention to the impact from inflation, supply constraints, volatility in financial markets and the spread of Covid cases in China.”

                Separately, it’s confirmed that the government nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, when Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends on April 8. Ueda is a 71-year-old former BoJ board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women’s University.

                France PMI manufacturing finalized at 53.6, difficult to imagine the situation improving any time soon

                  France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.6 in October, down from September’s 55.0, hitting the lowest level since January. Markit said output level declined as firms struggled to secure necessary materials. Demand conditions showed signs of weakening amid supply constraints. Lead times lengthened at near-record pace and cost inflation were at decade high.

                  Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                  “The supply chain issues we’ve been documenting for some months have been somewhat restrained to the supply-side of the economy, at least until now.

                  “Rapid rates of inflation have ensued, but production has still continued to grow and order books fill up. In October, French manufacturers recorded lower output volumes for the first time since January, while new business intakes fell for the first time in 2021.

                  “Because firms cannot secure the inputs needed to make their products, orders are now also falling as clients are facing lengthy delays on orders or are unable to get components and other items needed to turn semi-finished goods into finished goods.

                  “It’s difficult to imagine the situation improving any time soon. Prudent inventory management will be crucial for businesses hoping to keep production lines going.”

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.0%, Core CPI at 1.0%

                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.0% in August, down from 2.1% in July. That was still notably higher than 1.5% back in August 2017. Core CPI was finalized at 1.0% yoy. EU CPI was finalized at 2.1%, down from July’s 2.2%.

                    Highest contribution to Eurozone CPI was from energy (0.87%), followed by services (0.59%), food, alcohol & tobacco (0.48%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.09%).

                    Full release here.

                    NZD/USD extends down trend, to test channel support first

                      NZD/USD’s down trend resumes this week by breaking 0.6700 support and hit as low as 0.6659 so far. Immediate focus is now on channel support at 0.6640. Firm break there will be a sign of downside acceleration. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.7217 to 0.6700 from 0.6889 at 0.6569 and then 100% projection at 0.6372. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6889 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

                      Meanwhile, note that NZD/USD has taken out 38.2% retracement of 0.5467 to 0.7463 at 0.6701. The development argues that rise from 0.5467 has completed at 0.7643 after rejection by 0.7557 long term resistance. Even if fall from 0.7463 is still a correction, there is prospect of deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6229 before making a bottom. That chance would be high if the above mentioned channel support is firmly taken out.

                      RBA stands pat, eases hawkish stance without shifting to neutral

                        RBA maintained cash rate target at 4.35%, aligning with broad market expectations. The hawkish stance has seen a slight moderation, with the acknowledgment that “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out,” hinting at a cautious approach rather than a definitive shift towards a neutral bias.

                        The updated economic forecasts paint a picture of gradual moderation in inflation pressures. Headline CPI is expected to decelerate from 4.1% at the end of 2023 to 3.2% by the close of 2024, reaching 2.8% at the end of 2025, and further softening to 2.6% by mid-2026.

                        Trimmed mean CPI mirrors this downward trend, projected to ease from 4.2% at the end of 2023 to 3.1% by the end of 2024, and gradually declining to 2.8% by December 2024, and then 2.6% by June 2026.

                        Additionally, RBA’s outlook for cash rate assumes a decrease to 3.9% by the end of 2024, followed by a further reduction to 3.4% by the end of 2025, and eventually reaching 3.2% by mid-2026. This assumption aligns with the expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing.

                        On the growth front, RBA projects a modest GDP expansion of 1.8% in 2024, with an improvement to 2.3% in 2025.

                        Full RBA Statement and SoMP.

                        Gold accelerates down after taking out 1900, eye 1956 support

                          Gold is in steep fall in early European session, and selloff accelerates to as low as 1877.6 so far, after breaking through 1900 handle. The current development suggests that prior rise from 1764.31 has completed at 1959.16 after rejection by 1965.50 resistance. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1927.49 minor resistance holds.

                          Immediate focus is now on 1856.98 support. Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case and turn outlook bearish. More importantly, such development will argue that whole consolidation pattern from 2075.18 is not finished, and is extending with another falling leg. Further decline would then be seen through 1764.31 low. That could also help give Dollar a floor for stronger rebound.

                          Japan government upgrades fiscal 2021 GDP growth forecast to record 4%

                            Japan’s government upgraded fiscal 2021 (starting in April) GDP growth forecast to 4.0%, up form July estimate of 3.4%. If realized, that would be the largest expansion since data became comparable in 1995. Also, real GDP in March quarter of 2022 would be around the pre-pandemic level in December quarter of 2019.

                            The government’s newly approved JPY 74 trillion policy package would “underpin the economy and boost private demand such as capital expenditures”, said a Cabinet official.

                            Policymakers need to keep a close watch “on downside risks to the economy in Japan and overseas from the pandemic and impacts from moves in financial capital markets,” he added.

                            US PMI manufacturing finalized at 57.7 in Dec, rate of cost inflation eased

                              US PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 57.7 in December, down from November’s 583. Markit said output expansion was muted, as firms registered slower upturn in new orders. Rate of cost inflation remained marked despite easing to softest since June. Backlogs of work rose at slowest pace for ten months.

                              Siân Jones, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said:

                              “December saw another subdued increase in US manufacturing output as material shortages and supplier delays dragged on. Although some reprieve was seen as supply chains deteriorated to the smallest extent since May, the impact of substantially longer lead times for inputs thwarted firms’ ability to produce finished goods yet again.

                              “Adding to the sector’s challenges was an ebb in client demand from the highs seen earlier in 2021, with new orders rising at the slowest pace for a year, largely linked to a reluctance at customers to place orders before inventories were worked through. Alongside a slight pick-up in hiring, softer demand conditions contributed to the slowest rise in backlogs of work for ten months.

                              “While shortages remained significant, the end of the year brought with it some signs that cost pressures have eased. The uptick in input prices was the slowest for six months, and firms recorded softer increases in selling prices amid efforts to entice customer spending.”

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims down slightly to 202k, vs exp 215k

                                US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 202k in the week ending January 6, lower than expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -250 to 207.75k.

                                Continuing claims fell -34k to 1834k in the week ending December 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -8k to 1862k.

                                Full US jobless claims release here.

                                BoJ Kuroda: Premature to exit from massive stimulus program

                                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, said “the economy likely hit bottom around April-June and is expected to continue improving as a trend. That will help price growth turn positive and gradually accelerate toward our 2% inflation target.”

                                  “If inflation hits our 2% target and an exit from our massive stimulus program comes into sight, there will certainly be debate on how to end our ETF buying. But it’s premature to do so at this stage,” he added.

                                  Trump announced to indefinitely suspend tariffs on Mexico as agreement reached

                                    Trump suddenly announced on late Friday evening that the US has reached agreement with Mexico on migration issue. Hence, the proposed tariffs will be “indefinitely suspended”. He hailed that Mexico has has agreed to take strong measures to stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border. This is being done to greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States.”

                                    The news should be welcomed by the markets. But at the same time, it might raise a big question. That is, is an “insurance cut” by Fed still needed?

                                    Twitter

                                    By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                                    Learn more

                                    Load tweet

                                    US and Mexico also released a joint statement on the agreement. Full text below:

                                    U.S.-Mexico Joint Declaration

                                    The United States and Mexico met this week to address the shared challenges of irregular migration, to include the entry of migrants into the United States in violation of U.S. law. Given the dramatic increase in migrants moving from Central America through Mexico to the United States, both countries recognize the vital importance of rapidly resolving the humanitarian emergency and security situation. The Governments of the United States and Mexico will work together to immediately implement a durable solution.

                                    As a result of these discussions, the United States and Mexico commit to:

                                    Mexican Enforcement Surge

                                    Mexico will take unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular migration, to include the deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border. Mexico is also taking decisive action to dismantle human smuggling and trafficking organizations as well as their illicit financial and transportation networks. Additionally, the United States and Mexico commit to strengthen bilateral cooperation, including information sharing and coordinated actions to better protect and secure our common border.

                                    Migrant Protection Protocols

                                    The United States will immediately expand the implementation of the existing Migrant Protection Protocols across its entire Southern Border. This means that those crossing the U.S. Southern Border to seek asylum will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await the adjudication of their asylum claims.

                                    In response, Mexico will authorize the entrance of all of those individuals for humanitarian reasons, in compliance with its international obligations, while they await the adjudication of their asylum claims. Mexico will also offer jobs, healthcare and education according to its principles.

                                    The United States commits to work to accelerate the adjudication of asylum claims and to conclude removal proceedings as expeditiously as possible.

                                    Further Actions

                                    Both parties also agree that, in the event the measures adopted do not have the expected results, they will take further actions. Therefore, the United States and Mexico will continue their discussions on the terms of additional understandings to address irregular migrant flows and asylum issues, to be completed and announced within 90 days, if necessary.

                                    Ongoing Regional Strategy

                                    The United States and Mexico reiterate their previous statement of December 18, 2018, that both countries recognize the strong links between promoting development and economic growth in southern Mexico and the success of promoting prosperity, good governance and security in Central America. The United States and Mexico welcome the Comprehensive Development Plan launched by the Government of Mexico in concert with the Governments of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras to promote these goals. The United States and Mexico will lead in working with regional and international partners to build a more prosperous and secure Central America to address the underlying causes of migration, so that citizens of the region can build better lives for themselves and their families at home.

                                    Australian NAB quarterly business confidence dropped to 14, still optimistic growth picture

                                      Australia NAB Quarterly business confidence dropped from 19 to 14 in Q1. Current business conditions dropped from 14 to 9. Business conditions for the next three months dropped from 29 to 21. Business conditions for the next 12 months dropped from 36 to 34. trading conditions dropped from 19 to 12. Profitability conditions dropped from 13 to 7. Employment conditions dropped from 9 to 8. Capex plans for the next 12 months dropped from 34 to 33.

                                      “Overall, the survey continues to paint an optimistic picture on growth – including the potential for a pickup in business investment. This comes despite global events and still some disruption from the virus. That said, the challenges for both business and policy makers remain clear with price pressures continuing to build.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK consumer confidence improved, could be that infamous dead cat bounce

                                        UK Gfk consumer confidence rose 6 pts to -30 in June, hitting the highest level since March. That’s also the biggest improvement in nearly four years. Expectations on general economic situation over the next 12 months improved by 9 pts to -48, but stayed deeply negative.

                                        “We have seen queues as some shoppers return to battered high streets,” said Joe Staton, GfK client strategy director. But “with the labor market set for more job losses, we have to question whether we are seeing early signs of economic recovery or that infamous ‘dead cat bounce.'”

                                        Japan GDP ended expansion streak… temporarily

                                          Japan GDP contracted -0.2% qoq in Q1, worse than expectation of 0.0% qoq. On annualized basis,GDP contracted -0.6% versus expectation of -0.1%. The contraction marked the end of eight straight quarters of growth. And that was the longest streak since 1989. GDP deflator, however, rose 0.5% yoy, beating expectation of 0.3% yoy.

                                          But it’s generally believed that the contraction is temporary. In particular, a relatively weaker Yen at 100 against Dollar and global recovery, export led Japanese economy remains on solid footing for expansion.

                                          Also from Japan, industrial production was revised up to 1.4% mom in March, from first estimate of 1.2% mom.