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US oil inventories dropped -3.8m barrels, WTI hovers around 40

    By
    ActionForex
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    US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -3.8m barrels in the week ending October 9. At 489.1m barrels, inventories are around 11% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -1.6m barrels. Distillate dropped -7.2m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -1.9m barrels. Commercial petroleum dropped -16.8m barrels.

    41.43 resistance appears to be a barrier for WTI oil price for now. Still, even if this level is taken out, we’d expect strong resistance from 43.50 to limit upside. Current price actions from 43.50 is seen as a consolidation pattern in medium term scale. That is, we’re not expecting a break from range of 34.36/43.50 any time soon.

    ECB Lagarde: Inflation to remain negative over the coming months

      By
      ActionForex
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      In her IMFC statement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said economic indicators are pointing to a “strong rebound in activity” in tQ3. Though, the rebound is “uneven across sectors and regions”. A sustained recovery remains “highly dependent” on how the pandemic affects consumption, savings and investment decisions.

      Lagarde expects inflation to “remain negative over the coming months”, but turn positive again in early 2021. Over the meeting term, ” a recovery in demand, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, will put upward pressure on inflation.”

      She reiterated that “we continue to stand ready to adjust all of our instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards our inflation aim in a sustained manner, in line with our commitment to symmetry.”

      Full statement here.

      US Empire State manufacturing dropped to 10.5, but Philly Fed survey surged to 32.3

        By
        ActionForex
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        US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped to 10.5 in October, down from 17.0, missed expectation of 16.5. Six months ahead expectation also dropped -7.5 to 32.8.

        Philly Fed Manufacturing index, on the other hand, rose sharply to 32.3, up form 15.0, well above expectation of 15.5. it’s the fifth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May.

        US initial jobless claims rose to 898k, continuing claims dropped to 10m

          By
          ActionForex
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          US initial jobless claims rose 53k to 898k in the week ending October 10, above expectation of 810k. Four-week-moving average of initial close rose 8k to 866k.

          Continuing claims dropped -1165k to 10018k in the week ending October 3. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -682k to 11482.

          Full release here.

          UK: A negotiated Brexit outcome is still our preference

            By
            ActionForex
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            According to his spokesman, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was updated by chief Brexit negotiator David Frost that negotiations were still stuck over fisheries and level playing field competition guarantees. But the spokesman reiterated, “we look forward to hearing the outcome of the European Council and would reflect on that before setting out the UK’s next steps. We’ve always been clear that a negotiated outcome is our preference.”

            On the other, according to a draft of the EU summit conclusion, “the European Council invites the Union’s chief negotiator to continue negotiations in the coming weeks, and calls on the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”.

            RBA Lowe hints at more easing in November

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              RBA Governor Philip Lowe hinted in a speech that the central bank is ready for deliver more monetary easing in the upcoming meeting in November. He noted that “as the economy opens up, though, it is reasonable to expect that further monetary easing would get more traction than was the case earlier.”

              Lowe also noted that that financial stability considerations “have changed somewhat”. To the extent that an easing of monetary policy helps people get jobs it will help private sector balance sheets and lessen the number of problem loans. In so doing, it can reduce financial stability risks.”

              Also, while RBA’s balance sheet has “increased considerably” since March, “large increases have occurred in other countries. RBA is “considering the implications os this as we work through out own options”.

              Lowe’s comments are in line with market expectations of another cut in cash rate to 0.10%, with expansion of asset purchases to longer maturities.

              Full speech here.

              Australia employment dropped -29.5k in Sep, unemployment rate rose to 6.9%

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Australia employment dropped -29.5k in September, better than expectation of -50k. Full-time jobs dropped -20.1k while part-time jobs decreased by -9.4k. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 6.9%, below expectation of 7.1%. But at the same time, participation rate dropped -0.1% to 64.8%.

                Full release here.

                Fed Kaplan: Work needed to help disproportionately affected groups back into labor force

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan expects the US economy to contract -2.5% this year, and grow around 3.5% next. Unemployment is expected to end the year between 7% and 7.5%. However, unemployment may not drop back below 4% until 2023.

                  Kaplan is concerned that “many of the folks who have lost their jobs may not have a business to go back to.” “We’re going to have a lot of work to do to get these underrepresented groups that have been disproportionately affected back into the labor force.”

                  US Mnuchin still far apart with Democrats on fiscal stimulus

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated in an interview that he’s still “far part” with the Democrats on the next fiscal stimulus deal. Politics were “part of the reality” and an agreement is unlikely before US election, even though he will keep trying.

                    “The president has said to me, keep at this until you get this done,” Mnuchin told Fox Business Network. “If we don’t get it now, when the president wins the election we’ll get it passed quickly afterwards.”

                    Drew Hammill, deputy chief of staff for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, said the talks between Mnuchin and Pelosi were “productive”. Staff would continue to “exchange paper” and the two will speak again on Thursday.

                    Fed Clarida: Full recovery has a long way to go

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a speech that the recovery since spring has been “robust”. But, “let us not forget that full economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession has a long way to go”. Unemployment rate remains “elevated” at7.9%. It would be 3% haigher if labor force participation remained at February’s level. Also, inflation is still running below Fed’s 2% longer-run objective.

                      “It will take some time to return to the levels of economic activity and employment that prevailed at the business cycle peak in February, and additional support from monetary—and likely fiscal—policy will be needed.”

                      As for Fed, Clarida reiterated, ” we are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help ensure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust and rapid as possible.”

                      Full speech here.

                      US PPI picked up to 0.4% yoy in Sep, core PPI up to 1.2% yoy

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US PPI for final demand rose 0.4% mom in September, above expectation of 0.2% mom. PPI core rose 0.4% mom, also above expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually. PPI turned positive to 0.4% yoy versus expectation of -0.3% yoy. PPI core surged to 1.2% yoy versus expectation of 0.3% yoy.

                        Full release here.

                        GBP/CHF rebounds as UK avoids national circuit breaker

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Sterling rebounds, after initial dips, on talks that UK Prime Minister Boris would continue negotiations with EU even after the self-imposed October 15 deadline. An unnamed official was quoted saying UK still believe a deal is possible with intense negotiations in the coming days.

                          Separately, the UK government also resisted a “circuit breaker” national lockdown. Instead, Johnson told parliament, “the advice that I have today is that if we do the regional approach … we can bring down the R (reproduction rate) and we can bring down the virus… the whole point is to seize this moment now to avoid the misery of another national lockdown.”

                          GBP/CHF rebounds notably after initial dips today and it’s staying in consolidation from 1.1968 temporary top. Rise from 1.1598 is still in favor to continue as long as 1.1723 minor support holds. Break of 1.1968 should pave the way to retest 1.2222 near term resistance.

                          Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in Aug, EU up 1.0% mom

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in August, below expectation of 0.8% mom. Looking at some details, production of durable consumer goods rose by 6.8% mom, intermediate goods by 3.1% mom and energy by 2.3% mom, while production of both capital goods and non-durable consumer goods fell by -1.6% mom.

                            EU industrial production rose 1.0% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in industrial production were registered in Portugal (+10.0% mom), Italy (+7.7% mom), Hungary and Sweden (both +6.7% mom). The largest decreases were observed in Ireland (-13.4% mom), Estonia (-2.1% mom) and Luxembourg (-1.2% mom).

                            Full release here.

                            EU to step up no-deal Brexit preparation as negotiation progress still not sufficient

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Reuters reported that EU leaders believe that progress in Brexit negotiation with the UK is “still not sufficient” for an agreement. The decision wold be confirmed at the EU summit on Thursday and Friday. Also, the leaders would ask chief negotiator Michel Barnier to intensify the talks and implement an agreement from January 1, 2021. At the same time, EU would step up no-deal preparations.

                              Separately, Commissioner for the EU’s single market, Thierry Breton, told BFM business radio “We prefer a deal but not at any price and if there is no deal, we are ready… our customs are ready for a no-deal and it is urgent that British customs also prepare for it.”

                              Australia consumer sentiment surged to 105.0, highest since Jul 2018

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose 11.9% to 105.0 in October, up from 93.8. The Index has now lifted by 32% over the last two months. It’s also stands at the highest level since July 2018, 10% above the six-month average prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Confidence was also lifted in all states, including even Victoria (up 13.7%) which is still in lockdown. Confidence in New South Wales surged 17.5%, Queensland up 7.1%, Western Australia up 2.4%, South Australia up 9.3%.

                                Westpac also noted that one of the “likely factors” for the surge in sentiment was an expectation of RBA rate cut from 0.25% to 0.10% in November. Communications from RBA over the last few weeks “points to this outcome” too. And, “there seems to be no reason for the Board to delay its decision”.

                                Full release here.

                                G20 see economic outlook as less negative

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  G20 finance ministers and central banks see the global economic outlook as “less negative”. They are going to pledge to “sustain and strengthen” policy actions and “facilitate international” trade and enticements. Also, G20 will agree to freeze on the servicing of official bilateral debt for poor countries for another six months.

                                  “The outlook is less negative with global economic activity showing signs of recovery as our economies have been gradually reopening and the positive impacts of our significant policy actions started to materialize,” the draft of the communique showed. “We will sustain and strengthen as necessary our policy response, considering the different stages of the crisis, to secure a stable and sustainable recovery.”

                                  “We will continue to facilitate international trade, investment and to build resilience of supply chains to support growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development”.

                                  RBNZ Hawkesby: Negative rate is not a game of bluff

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said the central bank is still “very much in the mindset of ‘have we provided enough stimulus, and if we need to provide more what is the best way to do that?'” And that is what “motivated our work around active preparation of a package of further tools.”

                                    He emphasized that negative interest rate is “not a game of bluff” to talk down the New Zealand Dollar exchange rate. Though, “the biggest challenge about having a negative policy rate is the communication challenge,” he said. “How to explain it to the general public, how to explain it as a policy, how to win the argument, how to retain hearts and minds that you’re doing the right thing for the right reasons.”

                                    Fed Daly: Remains to be seen if more monetary stimulus needed

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said overnight that policymakers “got the economy and the policy in a good position right now.” Fed is “well positioned to weather this storm we are in”. Though, she also acknowledged that “it remains to be seen if more will be needed”. She’ll “continue to watch the data and see if adjustments will be necessary” on monetary policies.

                                      Daly also said in a speech that Fed has a “critical role to play” in building a society of “equal opportunity and inclusive success”. “We’ve committed to finding full employment experientially, by seeing it in wages and prices. When we’ve achieved 2 percent inflation on average, we will know that we have approached our maximum and that the economy is firmly on its sustainable path.” She added.

                                      “In other words, in the absence of sustained 2 percent inflation or emerging risks, such as to financial stability, we will not take the punch bowl away while so many remain on the economic sidelines.”

                                      IMF expects less severe global GDP contraction at -4.4% this year

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        In the World Economic Outlook Update, IMF revised 2020 global GDP contraction to -4.4%, revised up by 0.8% from June’s update. The less severe than expected contraction reflects better-than-anticipated Q2 GDP outturns as lockdowns were scaled back in May and June, as well as indicators of a stronger recovery in Q3.

                                        For medium-term outlook after rebound in 2021, “global growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 percent into the medium term”. This implies “only limited progress toward catching up to the path of economic activity for 2020-2025 projected before the pandemic”.

                                        IMF also noted that “the uncertainty surrounding the baseline projection is unusually large” resting on public health and economic factors that are “inherently difficult to predict”.

                                        Looking at some details:

                                        • World output in 2020 revised up by 0.8% to -4.4%.
                                        • World output in 2021 revised down by -0.2% to 5.2%.
                                        • US output in 2020 revised up by 3.7% to -4.3%.
                                        • US output in 2021 revised down by -1.4% to 3.1%.
                                        • Eurozone output in 2020 revised up by 1.9% to -8.3%.
                                        • Eurozone output in 2021 revised down by -0.8% to 5.2%.
                                        • Japan output in 2020 revised up by 0.5% to -5.3%.
                                        • Japan output in 2021 revised down by -0.1% to 2.3%.
                                        • UK output in 2020 revised up by 0.4% to -9.8%
                                        • UK output in 2021 revised down by -0.4% to 5.9%.
                                        • China output in 2020 revised up by 0.9% to -1.7%.
                                        • China output in 2021 left unchanged at 8.2%.

                                        Full report here.

                                        US CPI ticked up to 1.4% yoy in Sep, core CPI unchanged at 1.7% yoy

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          US CPI rose 0.2% mom in September, matched expectation. Core CPI rose 0.2%, also matched expectations. Annually, headline CPI accelerated to 1.4% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core was unchanged at 1.7% yoy, matched expectations.

                                          Full release here.

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