UK unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, employment rate rose to 75.2%

    UK unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.7% to 4.6% in the three months to July. That’s still 0.6% higher than pre-pandemic level. Employment rate rose to 75.2% but remains -1.3% below pre-pandemic level. Average earnings including bonus rose 8.3% 3moy, below expectation of 8.6%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.8% 3moy, also below expectation of 7.3%. Claimant count dropped -58.6k in August, versus expectation of -71.7k.

    Full release here.

    EU Juncker: April 12 is the ultimate deadline for UK to approve Brexit agreement

      European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned that UK will not be granted another short Article 50 extension unless the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by the parliament. He told the European Parliament that “the 12th of April is the ultimate deadline for approval of the Withdrawal Agreement by the House of Commons.” And, “if it has not done so by then, no further short extension will be possible.”

      He added: “A ‘no-deal’ at midnight on the 12th of April is now a very likely scenario. It is not the outcome I want. But it is an outcome for which I have made sure the EU is ready… UK will be affected more than EU because there is no such thing as a ‘managed’ or ‘negotiated no-deal’ and there is no such thing as a ‘no-deal transition’.”

      New Zealand Treasury: Consumption and business confidence pose downside risks to growth

        New Zealand Treasury’s Monthly Economic Data report noted that the 0.5% real GDP growth in Q1 was below the forecast set in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU). Terms of trade fell by -6.7% due to  a slight fall in export prices and an increase in import prices, contributing to -0.4% decline in nominal GDP.

        Consumption indicators were soft. Business confidence deteriorated further in June, hitting post-election lows. Combined they suggest “there is a little less momentum in the economy and poses some downside risk to our BEFU GDP forecast in the near-term.”

        The report also warned that “risks around trade continue to escalate with tariffs affecting a range of trade between the US and China, and a growing number of other countries.”

        Full report here.

        Joint press conference of UK PM May and Trump

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          Limited loss in Yuan and Chinese stocks as trade war escalation shrugged

            The financial markets reactions to new round of US tariffs on China are so far rather muted. Nikkei is actually rising over 1% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.72%, Singapore Strait Times is down -0.55%. China’s Shanghai SSE dipped to 2644.30 but recovered. It’s now trading down -0.12% only at 2648.5, still kept above 2638 key support level (2016 low).

            In the currency markets, Dollar turns soft again after a brief lift from the trade war news. It’s trading as the weakest one together with Yen for now. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest ones.

            USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) edged higher to 6.8930 earlier today but there is no follow through buying to push it through 6.8959 minor resistance yet.

            Germany Ifo dropped to 84.3, slipping into recession

              Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped from 88.6 to 84.3 in September, below expectation of 87.1. That’s the lowest level since May 2020. Current Assessment index dropped form 97.5 to 94.5, below expectation of 96.0. Expectations index dropped from 80.3 to 75.2, below expectation of 78.6.

              Ifo said: “Companies assessed their current business as clearly worse. Pessimism regarding the coming months has grown decidedly; in retail, expectations have fallen to a record low. The German economy is slipping into recession.”

              By sector, manufacturing dropped from -6.8 to -14.2. Services dropped from 1.4 to -8.9. Trade dropped from -25.8 to -32.3. Construction dropped from -14.8 to -21.6.

              Full release here.

              Germany PMIs: Solid start to the second quarter.

                Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 58.1, down from 58.2 and beat expectation of 57.5. GErmany PMI services rose to 54.1, up from 53.9 and beat expectation of 53.7. PMI compositive rose to 55.3, up from 55.1.

                Comments from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit:

                “Growth of Germany’s private sector steadied in April, to arrest the loss of momentum seen in February and March. With both manufacturing and services seeing slightly quicker increases in output, the data show the economy making a solid start to the second quarter.

                “There was also a welcome pick-up in the rate of private sector job creation in April. Employment levels rose strongly on a broad-based basis by sector, albeit with the rate of hiring among manufacturers easing from the recent elevated levels.

                “However, a further slowdown in new order growth to its weakest for over a year-and-a-half does raise some concerns. This seemed to be reflected in the survey’s measure of business confidence, which slipped further from the highs seen in 2017.”

                Canada-US trade talks continue in good faith, but nothing is done until everything is done

                  Canadian Dollar is apparently lifted after Trump said the trade talks continue “in good faith”. And, Trump is open to include Canada in the US-Mexican agreement but noted that “they want to make a deal very much”, but if we don’t make it, that’s okay too”.

                  Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland returned to the US and met USTR Robert Lighthizer yesterday, to resume the trade talks. Afterwards, she said the was a positive atmosphere during the meeting. And, “both sides did a lot of thinking over the weekend, so this was a very productive meeting.” But she also emphasized that “nothing is done until everything is done.”

                  Meanwhile Reuters reported quoting unnamed source that Canada is ready to have concessions on dairy. But in return, it would request US concession on Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism.

                  Canada collected nearly CAD 300m in tariffs after starting retaliation on US steel and aluminum tariffs. Finance Ministry spokesman pledged that the money will be funneled back to the industries hurt by Trump’s tariffs. He said “we are committed to making sure that every dollar raised in reciprocal tariffs is given back in the form of support for affected sectors.”

                  New Zealand employment grew 0.6% in Q1, unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%

                    New Zealand employment grew 0.6% in Q1, above expectation of 0.3% qoq. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, down from 4.9%, better than expectation of 4.9%. Labor force participation rate rose 0.1% to 70.4%. Labor cost index rose 0.4% qoq, above expectation of 0.3% qoq.

                    “There have been some gains in labour market outcomes, especially for women, over the past two quarters. However, annual changes indicate the labour market still hasn’t returned to pre-COVID-19 levels for men or women,” work, wealth, and wellbeing statistics senior manager Sean Broughton said.

                    Full release here.

                    ECB de Guindos: Eurozone underlying fundamentals for moderate expansion remain in place

                      ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said today that “the underlying fundamentals for a continued though moderate expansion of the euro area economy remain in place, as foreseen in the December 2019 Eurosystem staff projections.”

                      However, “risks surrounding the euro area remain tilted to the downside.. In particular, the outbreak of the coronavirus and its potential effect on global growth add a new layer of uncertainty.”

                      Fed Williams: Tariff is a negative for jobs

                        New York Fed John Williams said in a forum yesterday that the Trump’s tariff war with other countries have “relatively small effect on the economy. But they created higher uncertainty for businesses.

                        Williams said “at least so far the tariffs that have been put in place, by the United States and other countries, when you roll that up into a $20-trillion economy it doesn’t have a big effect overall on economic growth or inflation”. And, the “much more important and larger” effect is higher uncertainty for businesses. As companies put off investments due to the uncertainties, “that’s a negative for jobs in the short run…and a factor that slows the economy relative to what it could be.”

                        Germany Maas: Without meeting EU standard UK will not have full access to the single market

                          German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said in a Die Zeit article that “we all want zero tariffs and zero trade barriers” between EU and UK. However, “that also means zero dumping and zero unfair competition.”

                          He emphasized, “Without similar standards to protect our workers, our consumers and the environment, there can be no full access to the largest single market in the world.”

                          Mass also urged that EU and UK must conduct the negotiations regarding post-Brexit relationship in a way that “won’t harm the European Union”.

                          Eurozone goods exports falls -9.3% yoy in Sep, imports down -23.9% yoy

                            Eurozone exports of goods fell -9.3% yoy to EUR 235.8B in September. Imports fell -23.9% yoy. As a result, a EUR 10.0B trade surplus was recorded. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -15.5% yoy to EUR 217.3B.

                            In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone goods exports fell -0.5% mom to EUR 234.0B. Imports rose 0.3% mom to 224.8B. Trade surplus narrowed from August’s EUR 11.1B to EUR 9.2B, smaller than expectation of EUR 12.3B. Intra-Eurozone trade fell from August’s 215.8B to EUR 213.9B.

                            Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

                            ECB Villeroy: Green central bank action is not about easing

                              ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said he proposed to “decarbonizing the ECB’s balance sheet with a pragmatic, progressive and targeted approach to all corporate assets whether they be held on the central bank’s balance sheet as purchases or taken as collateral.”

                              Villeroy noted that the stagflationary nature of climate change was the reason to take it into account. It could challenge the price stability mandate by pushing up prices while weighing on the economy.

                              Though, he also noted, “the greening of central bank action is not about additional monetary policy easing but recalibrating our tools”.

                              NIESR: UK GDP to grow 1.8% in March, 2.2% in April

                                NIESR said UK’s GDP is likely to have contracted by -1.5% qoq in Q1, with 1.8% mom growth in March. April is forecast to see GDP growth of 2.2% mom, driven by partial re-opening of pubs and restaurants. Assuming continuation of vaccination and re-opening, first estimate of Q2 GDP growth is 4.6% qoq, driven by pent-up demand and a return towards pre-Covid levels in the hospitality and retail sectors.

                                Rory Macqueen Principal Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting: “Despite little change in restrictions, a return to growth in February and upward revisions to January GDP mean that the contraction in the first quarter will be much smaller than anticipated….

                                “if the vaccine programme and lifting of restrictions continue on schedule this provides a firm basis for continuing growth in the second quarter and 2021 overall. The third wave in Europe and the success of other countries in vaccinating their populations will also have relevance for the recovery of the UK, as an open economy.”

                                Full release here.

                                BoE Saunders: Clear evidence that guidance conditions have been met

                                  BoE MPC member Michael Saunders reiterated in a speech, “The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

                                  He added that these guidance conditions “have now been met”. There is “clear evidence” that GDP has “regained most of the lost ground in recent months”. Spare capacity in the labor market is “declining”. And the economy “continues to grow rapidly”. GDP is likely to regain pre-pandemic peak in the “next few months”.

                                  Also, there is “clear evidence” that core inflation is “no longer below a target-consistent pace”, and it’s “likely to rise further in coming months”. This back drop meets the test of “significant progress in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

                                  Even though the phrase “at least until” indicates these conditions are necessary but not sufficient for tightening. He said, “the guidance no longer rules out tightening.” Also, “the question of whether to curtail our current asset purchase program early will be under consideration at our forthcoming meetings”.

                                  Full speech here.

                                  ECB’s Centeno: Inflation trajectory is very positive

                                    At the World Economic Forum in Davos, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno highlighted the positive direction of medium-term inflation, noting that its “trajectory is very positive right now.” He further told CNBC that “we don’t need to do more than is needed”

                                    On the topic of rate cuts, Centeno noted “once inflation starts going down sustainably, with an economy … that is not growing, where the challenges are huge, we need to be open to get all data on board and decide upon that.”

                                    Meanwhile, another ECB Governing Council member, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, speaking at a panel in Davos, cautioned against premature declarations of victory over inflation. However, he admitted that “our next move will be a cut, probably this year” evenh though he refrained from commenting on the timing.

                                    US stocks rose on talks of automakers reopenning

                                      US stocks closed higher overnight on optimism that coronavirus lockdown is going to end soon, partially at least. DOW rose 1.51%, S&P 500 gained 1.47% while NASDAQ added 1.11%. WSJ reported that General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler are targeting to resume some productions on May 18. The decision came after the executives’ meeting with United Auto Workers and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s office last week.

                                      None of the companies, nor Whitemer, confirmed the news. It’s should be just a matter of a week or two later when some sort of reopening should happen in less risky areas. Meanwhile, the severely impacted New York state is planning some reopening on May 15 too.

                                      DOW is back pressing 55 day EMA after the rally overnight. For now, we’re still seeing the rebound from 18213.65 as a corrective move. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 25230.99. Meanwhile, break of 22941.88 support should now be an indication of completion of the rebound, and turn near term outlook bearish again.

                                      German industrial production dropped -0.6% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom

                                        German industrial production dropped -0.6% mom in July, well below expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the year, production dropped -4.2% yoy. Looking at some details, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by -0.8%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by -0.7% and the production of capital goods by -1.2%. The production of consumer goods showed an increase by 0.6%. Outside industry, energy production was down by -1.3% and the production in construction increased by 0.2%.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Chinese Yuan recovers as PBoC pledges to prevent over-adjustment

                                          Chinese Yuan made a notable recovery today after PBoC made its intentions clear, vowing to staunchly prevent an “over-adjustment” in the Yuan’s exchange rate and avert systemic financial pitfalls. Amplifying this verbal intervention, several of China’s major state-owned banks have been observed actively selling US Dollars in favor of Yuan in both onshore and offshore markets this week.

                                          This proactive stance by PBoC and state-owned banks arises at a time when Yuan has been on a downward trajectory, dangerously inching closer to its lowest levels since 2007.

                                          Market observers are now grappling with a pivotal question: Is China’s move aimed at establishing a firm bottom for Yuan or merely an effort to slow down its rapid decline?

                                          Technically, a temporary top should be formed at 7.3491 in USD/CNH and some consolidation is now expected. As long as 55 4H EMA holds (now at 7.2685), further rally is still in favor. Break of 7.3491 will resume the rally from 6.6971 towards 7.3745 high, or possibly further to 61.8% projection of 6.8100 to 7.2853 from 7.1154 at 7.4889.