Some Fed officials expressed their concerns over trade tensions and the impact on confidence and the economy at a Dallas Fed conference yesterday.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said “I’m watching very carefully how these trade tensions unfold because I have a concern.. whether that could cause some deceleration in the rate of growth.” And, “new development over the last month has been increased trade tensions and more business uncertainty, and it’s going to take a little while to sort out how that might unfold, or how long that might last.”
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said for now “the data is good, but the mood is teetering”. The economy’s momentum would be an upside risk to growth ” if we get a relaxation or a reduction in the uncertainty”. However, she warned that if uncertainties persist, “that’s a downside to the economy, because the uncertainty has real effects, but it also has effects on confidence, and that confidence feeds back into investment.”
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also warned that uncertainties around trade could hurt growth.
Fed Kashkari: I haven’t seen anything yet to lower my rate path
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC, “We have a job to do. We know that raising rates can put a lid on inflation. We need to raise rates aggressively to put a ceiling on inflation, then let monetary policy work its way through the economy.”
Last week’s job data a “tells me that so far we’re not seeing much of an imprint of our tightening to date on the labor market. There’s some evidence that it’s having some effect, but it’s pretty muted so far,” Kashkari said.
“I haven’t seen anything yet to lower my rate path, but I’m obviously keeping my eyes open and we’ll see how the data comes in,” he added.