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US oil inventories rose 1.6m barrels, WTI mildly lower

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    US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6m barrels in the week ending August 9, versus expectation of -2.5m barrels decline. At 440.5m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year.

    WTI weakens mildly after the release but remains in range of 50.43/60.93. WTI breached 50.64 support last week but quickly rebounded. However, as upside is limited by 55 day EMA so far, further decline remains in favor. Sustained break of 50.64 could pave the way back to 42.05 low.

    EU Barnier: Irish border the most sensitive point but a solution is possible

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      EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier talked to German broadcaster Deutschlandfunk with a more neutral tone on Brexit today. He said that EU should be prepared for every outcome, and “that includes the no-deal scenario”. He also mentioned that the issue of Irish border was the “most sensitive point” of the negotiations. But he also noted that it is “possible” to have a solution.

      Barnier said yesterday that the EU is “prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country.” That’s taken as a sign of commitment to a deal.

      Separately, it’s reported that EU officials are considering an unscheduled summit in November to conclude Brexit negotiations. It’s actually not news as the October summit is too tight while December one is too late to finalize all the parliamentary approvals.

      US initial jobless claims rose to 719k, continuing claims at 3.8m

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        ActionForex.com
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        US initial jobless claims rose 61k to 719k in the week ending March 27, above expectation of 678k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -10.5k to 719k.

        Continuing claims dropped -46k to 3794k in the week ending March 20. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -147k to 3979k.

        Full release here.

        Trump holds WTO hostage to request for improvements

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          ActionForex.com
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          While meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Washington, US President Donald Trump issued fresh warning to the WTO. When asked is he’s preparing to pull out of the WTO, Trump said it has treated the US “very, very badly and I hope they change their ways”. He added that the US has a “a big disadvantage with the WTO. And we’re not planning anything now, but if they don’t treat us properly, we’ll be doing something,” That came after earlier report Axios, based on unnamed source, that Trump has completed to his officials “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”

          In an CNBC interview, Tony Fratto, deputy press secretary under President George W. Bush, blasted the idea of leaving WTO. He said, “to say that the United States is a loser in a WTO world is just completely inaccurate. We created the WTO as the dominant economy in the world to serve our interests.” While improvements are needed, there are better ways than “to hold it hostage and to threaten to pull out of it.” And He added that pulling out of WTO is a “ridiculous idea”.

          On the other hand, former Trump advisor Dan DiMicco also told CNBC that “If the WTO can’t be any more effective than it has been the last 20 years … then the WTO is not helping the world trading system, it’s hurting it, and we should be prepared to walk away.”

          Fed Kaplan worries about imbalances and instabilities due to interest rate pledge

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            Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a telephone interview that if Fed makes the pledge to keep rates near-zero into 2023, “you need to fulfill it, unless there’s an extraordinary reason why you can’t…. My worry was that this would encourage in the shorter run more risk- taking and maybe create imbalances and instabilities.”

            As the economy recovers, the so call-neutral rate will rise. In that case, he said, “if you keep your setting of the fed funds rate exactly where it is, you are actually increasing the level of accommodation.” If unemployment rate approaches 3.5% while inflation is a little below 2%, ” do you actually want to be increasing the level of accommodation? I don’t know if you do or don’t, and that’s the point,” he added.

            UK Rees-Mogg: Change the government or the law, or Brexit will happen on Oct 31

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              UK Leader of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg challenged other MPs to collapse the government if they can, as criticism over Prime Minister Johnson’s move to suspend the parliament grew. Rees-Mogg told BBC, “All these people who are wailing and gnashing of teeth know that there are two ways of doing what they want to do… One, is to change the government and the other is to change the law. If they do either of those that will then have an effect… If they don’t have either the courage or the gumption to do either of those then we will leave on the 31st of October in accordance with the referendum result.”

              Some EU ministers sang a chorus against no-deal Brexit today as risks grow. Dutch Foreign Minister Stephan Blok said “it’s in nobody’s interest to see a no-deal Brexit,” and, “we still hope it will be possible to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we are looking forward to any proposals from the British government that fit into the Withdrawal Agreement”. Austria’s Alexander Schallenberg said “I fear so, yes,” that a no-de Brexit is more likely. But he also reiterated EU’s stance that “the ball is in the UK’s court… We have done whatever is possible to ensure an orderly exit of Britain.” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said: “To support Brexit with the deal is a key issue because otherwise we will face a lot of negative consequences to our economies and our border traffic.”

              Japan exports struggled in record losing streak

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                Japan’s exports dropped -4.2% yoy to JPY 6.11T. Imports dropped -11.1% yoy to JPY 5.75T. Trade surplus came in at JPY 367B. In seasonally adjusted terms, Trade surplus widened to JPY 0.57T, slightly above expectation of JPY 0.55T.

                The data marked the 24th straight month of year-over year decline in exports, longest streak on record since 1979. By destination, exports to the US contracted for the first time in three months, by -2.5% yoy. Exports to China rose 3.8% yoy, slowest pace in five months. Exports to Asia also dropped for the first time in two months, by -4.3% yoy. Exports to EU dropped -2.6% yoy.

                US initial jobless claims rose to 213k, slightly above expectation

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 213k in the week ending September 21, slightly above expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -0.75k to 212k. Continuing claims dropped -15k to 1.65m in the week ending September 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -12.75k to 1.668m.

                  Also from US, goods trade balance widened slightly to USD -72.8B in August, below expectation of USD -73.3B.

                  Fed Harker wants rate to get above 3.4%, open to higher

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told CNBC today, “I’d like to see us get to, say, above 3.4% – that was the last median in the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) – and then maybe sit for a while.”

                    “But if the data says we need to keep increasing, we keep increasing. We’ve got to get inflation under control. That is Job One,” he added.

                    As for September meet, “whether it’s 50 or 75 I can’t say right now,” he said. But he noted that a 50bps hike is still a “substantial” one.

                    ECB Vasle: March rate hike to be followed by additional increases

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                      ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said, “my personal expectations is that the increase we intend for our March meeting — that is 0.5 percentage points — will not be the last one.”

                      March rate hike “will be followed by additional increases before we reach a level that will be sufficient to bring inflation back to the trajectory towards our goal of 2% inflation,” he added.

                      UK PMI construction dropped to 54.6, speed of recovery lost momentum

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                        UK PMI Construction dropped to 54.6 in August, down from July’s 58.1. Markit said subdued order books held back output growth. House building remained the best performing category. Business expectations reached six-month high on hopes of a boost from infrastructure work.

                        Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “The latest PMI data signalled a setback for the UK construction sector as the speed of recovery lost momentum for the first time since the reopening phase began in May…. Another month of widespread job shedding highlighted the ongoing difficulties faced by UK construction companies, with order books often depleted due to a slump in demand from sectors of the economy that have experienced the greatest impact from the pandemic.”

                        Full release here.

                        US consumer confidence dropped to 96.1, not foreseeing strength in economy next year

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                          ActionForex.com
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                          US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 96.1 in November, down from 101.4, missed expectation of 98.3. Present Situation Index dropped from 106.2 to 105.9. Expectations Index dropped notably from 98.2 to 89.5.

                          “Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4. Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.”

                          Full release here.

                          ECB de Galhau: The key question is if slowdown is temporary or more durable

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                            ActionForex.com
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                            ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a El Pais newspaper interview over the weekend that the central bank will scrutinize incoming data to decide whether to hike after this summer.

                            He said “the key question will be if the slowdown is temporary — with a bounce-back during this year — or more durable.” For now, there is resilient domestic demand in Germany, France and Spain. And that kept recession risk low even though outlook was clouded by protectionism and Brexit.

                            And de Galhau also noted that there was strong convergence of views within ECB about the sequencing of the next policy steps, as well as the flexibility about timing.

                            Bundesbank: Rapid and strong economic recovery unlikely

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                              ActionForex.com
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                              Bundesbank said in its regular monthly report that Germany would recover slowly after severe recession. It said, “substantial restrictions are likely to remain until a medical solution such as vaccination is available. For this reason, a rapid and strong economic recovery currently seems unlikely.”

                              Though, it added that “there is no fear that the German economy will get into a self-reinforcing downward spiral”. Fiscal and monetary policies will support the recovery. But inflation is likely to decline sharply in the coming months when lower oil prices are quickly passed onto consumers.

                              Canada manufacturing sales up 0.7% mom, but down -0.7% mom in real terms

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                                Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.7% mom to CAD 72.4B in August, below expectation of 1.1% mom. Sales were higher in 9 of 21 sectors, led by the petroleum and coal (+10.5%), food (+1.5%) and machinery (+2.4%) subsectors. Sales of fabricated metals (-3.5%) and miscellaneous (-9.4%) declined the most.

                                Sales in real terms, however, decreased -0.7% mom.

                                Full Canada manufacturing sales release here.

                                ECB de Guindos: Growth more negative than projected, inflation align closely

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                                  ActionForex.com
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                                  ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos said in an interview that by holding interest rates steady "at their current level", ECB anticipates a significant impact on taming inflation to target of 2%.

                                  This comes as a positive sign for the markets that have seen inflation rates soar over the past year, with a peak above 10% that has since eased to 2.9%. With core inflation also showing signs of moderation, ECB’s tightening campaign seems to be bearing fruit.

                                  However, de Guindos emphasized a "prudent and cautious" approach because of "risks around the outlook for inflation over the next few months." This underlies ECB’s stance to consider interest rate decisions on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis, guided by unfolding economic data.

                                  De Guindos also pointed out that "leading indicators point to the growth outlook being somewhat more negative than we previously projected." Nonetheless, he believes that inflation may align closely with their September projections.

                                  Full interview of ECB de Guindos here.

                                  BoE Cunliffe: There’s no intrinsic value around crypto assets

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                                    BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said at a web event, “There’s a long tail of retail investors who have invested in cryptoassets. Do they all understand what they’ve invested in? I think not. For that long tail of retail investors, I’m not sure they do understand. They don’t really see this as a financial investment.”

                                    “There’s no intrinsic value around crypto assets,” Cunliffe said. “They move with sentiment. They’re being moved mainly as a risky asset, and prices have been going down pretty consistently.”

                                    “If you have that as a proportion of your portfolio, you have to realize it is highly speculative,” Cunliffe said. “You could lose all your money. You could make a sizable capital gain. It’s important for investors to understand the characteristics of this investment.”

                                    Lagarde: ECB negative rates hasn’t hit bottom yet

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                                      ActionForex.com
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                                      Incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde talked about the challenges to the global economy in the CBS News “60 Minutes” program. She warned that US President Donald Trump has “many keys” that would “unlock the uncertainty of the risks”. The biggest key was in relation to “predictability and, and certainty of the terms of trade”. Also, she emphasized “market stability should not be the subject of a tweet here or a tweet there. It requires consideration, thinking, quiet and measured and rational decisions.”

                                      Europe is facing increasing fears of recession, as led by slump in manufacturing. And the room for more monetary stimulus by ECB is very limited, given that rates are already negative. Lagarde said “there’s a limit to what central bankers can do. There’s a limit to how far and how deep you go into negative territory.” However, she added, “There’s a bottom to everything, but we’re not at that bottom at this point in time.” The interview was done in September though.

                                      Australia retail sales rose 7.3% mom in Nov as restrictions eased

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                                        ActionForex.com
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                                        Australia retail sales rose 7.3% mom in November, well above expectation of 4.0% mom. That’s also the fourth strongest monthly rise on record. Total turnover at current prices hit a record AUD 33.4B.

                                        “Further easing of COVID-19 restrictions in the South-Eastern states and territories has seen the retail industry recover all lost momentum caused by the Delta outbreak,” Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, said. “Victoria recorded the largest state rise, up 20.0 per cent, reaching its highest level of the series. This follows the state’s lockdown ending in late October.”

                                        “Continued easing of COVID-19 restrictions, including less strict density and capacity limits, in New South Wales (5.1 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (19.2 per cent) led to rises in turnover to record levels.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan industrial production dropped -1.3% mom in Jan, retail sales rose 1.6% yoy

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                                          ActionForex.com
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                                          Japan industrial production dropped -1.3% mom in January, worse than expectation of -0.7% mom. Output declined for the second month, after the -1.0% mom contraction in December. Production of cars and other motor parts slumped -17.2% mom, falling for the first time in four months.

                                          Nevertheless according to survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), output is expected to bounce back by 5.7% mom in February and 0.1% mom in March. But the forecasts were taken before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which impact is still unknown.

                                          Retail sales rose 1.6% yoy, above expectation of 1.1% yoy, fourth consecutive month of expansion.

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