NASDAQ eyes 20k after Powell’s balanced risk remarks

    US stocks soared overnight, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 both extending their record runs with gains exceeding 1%. Investors responded positively to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day semiannual testimony, even though forex markets remained relatively unchanged.

    Powell refrained from hinting at the timing of Fed’s first rate cut but acknowledged that the risks to the economy are now more balanced. He emphasized that “elevated inflation is not the only risk,” reinforcing expectations that Fed would move quickly to ease policy if economic and job market conditions show significant signs of cooling.

    Technically, near term outlook in NASDAQ will stay bullish as long as 18034.99 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 12543.85 to 16538.86 from 15222.77 at 19217.78.

    Or, NASDAQ might be targeting long term target of 100% projection of 6631.42 to 16212.22 from 10088.82 at 19669.62. Or it’s actually targeting 20k psychological level.

    In summary, if NASDAQ can stay above 18k mark, a rapid move to 20k could be on the horizon.

    BoJ Kuroda: “Absolutely no plan” to raise yield target

      BoJ Governor Kuroda told the parliament today that there is “absolutely no plan” to raise the yield target under the Yield Curve Control for now, as inflation is still distant from 2%. He also explained that removing the time frame to meet the 2% inflation target is not necessarily related to the side effect of monetary policy on bank profits.

      Regarding YCC, Kuroda said bond purchases are more sustainable under the framework, as the central bank has more flexibility. And, it’s be able to maintain long term year near 0% with smooth operations in JGB purchases.

      NZ ANZ business confidence hits 10-yr high , optimism grows on lower interest rates

        New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence surged from 60.9 to 65.7 in October, marking its highest level in a decade and reflecting a wave of optimism among businesses.

        This renewed confidence is supported by a range of positive indicators: the outlook for own activity increased slightly from 45.3 to 45.9, while export intentions jumped from 13.8 to 17.1, the highest since September 2018. Investment intentions also surged from 9.2, reaching 20.0, the highest level since June 2021, and employment intentions rose from 11.8 to 14.2, the highest since November 2021.

        Several key metrics highlight this optimism. Cost expectations dropped from 66.8 to 64.2, indicating some relief in business expenses, while wage expectations edged up slightly from 76.4 to 77.0. Pricing intentions also rose, climbing from 42.8 to 44.2, suggesting businesses may feel confident in passing some costs to consumers. Profit expectations strengthened from 22.2 to 27.0, and inflation expectations continued their downward trend, dipping from 2.92% to 2.82%.

        According to ANZ, “steady falls in interest rates” have provided a strong boost to business sentiment, encouraging growth across multiple sectors.

        Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

        Eurozone PMI services finalized at 51.6, PMI composite at 50.0

          Eurozone PMI Services for October was finalized at 51.6, up from September’s 51.4. PMI Composite also moved to 50.0 from 49.6, indicating stagnation rather than expansion across the region. The services sector continues to play a vital role in keeping Eurozone’s economy afloat, yet concerns of a Q4 contraction remain.

          Spain topped the Eurozone with PMI Composite of 55.2, while Ireland followed at 52.. Italy’s index reached 51.0, a four-month high. Meanwhile, Germany’s reading improved to 48.6, still in contraction but at a three-month high. France recorded an eight-month low of 48.1.

          Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, remarked, “The modest expansion of the services sector has been crucial in keeping the currency union out of recession.” He highlighted that declining inflation and higher wages are likely bolstering consumer spending, which sustains demand in services. However, de la Rubia pointed out that their GDP Nowcast for Q4 indicates a “slight contraction” in overall Eurozone output.

          De la Rubia also noted that structural issues, such as labor shortages which exert upward wage pressures, continue to keep inflation elevated. “The ECB will find it “difficult, if not impossible”, to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner in this environment,” he added.

          Full Eurozone PMI services final release here.

          Into US session: Euro strongest as Italian budget deal made, Dollar soft ahead of FOMC

            Entering US session, Euro is trading as the strongest one today. European Commission finally agreed with Italy on its 2019 budget, thus the so called “Excessive Deficit Procedure”. Italian 10 year yield tumble to as low as 2.778. German-Italian spread also narrowed to 253. Swiss Franc is, as a result of relief rally in European stocks too, trading as the weakest one for today. Dollar is the second weakest as markets await FOMC rate decision.

            In short, Fed is widely expected to raise federal funds rate by 25bps to 2.25-2.50% today. The question is on the rate path in 2019 after all the political pressures Fed policymakers faced. The new economic projections will provide the key guidance to market expectations. More on the projections here.

            Also, here are some suggested readings on FOMC:

            In European markets, at the time of writing:

            • FTSE is up 1.00%
            • DAX is up 0.73%
            • CAC is up 0.72%
            • German 10 year yield is down -0.004 at 0.243
            • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.169 at 2.778

            Earlier in Asia:

            • Nikkei dropped -0.60%
            • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.20%
            • China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.05%
            • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.43%
            • Japan 10 year JGB yield rose 0.0048 to 0.033

            Eurozone GDP rises 0.3% qoq in Q1, above exp 0.1% qoq

              Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.4% yoy in Q1, better than expectation of 0.1% qoq, 0.2% yoy. EU GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.5% yoy.

              Among the Member States for which data are available, Ireland (+1.1%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary (all +0.8%). Sweden (-0.1%) was the only Member State that recorded a decrease. The year on year growth rates were positive for nine countries and negative for four.

              Full Eurozone GDP release here.

              Fed’s Kashkari: More positive inflation data needed before easing monetary policy

                In an interview with CNBC today, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for “many more months of positive inflation data” before considering a reduction in monetary policy restrictions.

                Moreover, he noted that Fed might still need to hike rates if inflation does not decrease further, stating, “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point.”

                Kashkari expressed confidence that Fed would eventually achieve its 2% inflation target but cautioned against rushing into rate cuts. However, “I’m not seeing the need to hurry and do rate cuts. I think we should take our time and get it right,” he added.

                UK CPI jumps to 3.8%, services inflation stays hot at 5%

                  UK inflation accelerated more than expected in July, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% yoy from 3.6% yoy, surpassing forecasts of 3.7% yoy and marking the highest level since early 2024. The biggest driver was transport costs, particularly higher airfares, which made the largest contribution to the monthly rise in annual rates.

                  Breakdown data showed broad-based strength. CPI goods inflation climbed to 2.7% yoy from 2.4% yoy, while CPI services surged to 5.0% yoy from 4.7% yoy. Meanwhile, core CPI edged up from 3.7% yoy to 3.8% yoy, topping expectations and matching the headline pace, highlighting persistent underlying pressures.

                  For BoE, the data poses a challenge. The uptick in both headline and core inflation risks slowing the recent easing cycle, as policymakers balance still-high inflation against weaker economic growth momentum. Markets may scale back expectations for near-term cuts if the stickiness persists.

                  Full UK CPI release here.

                  US ISM services fell to 54.4 in Oct, lowest since May 2020

                    US ISM Services PMI dropped from 56.7 to 54.4 in October, below expectation of 55.2. That’s also the lowest reading since May 2020. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped from 59.1 to 55.7. New orders dropped from 60.6 to 56.5. Employment dropped from -3.9 to 53.0. Prices rose from 68.7 to 70.7.

                    ISM said: “Growth continues at a slower rate for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 153 months. The sector had a pullback in growth for the second consecutive month in October due to decreases in business activity, new orders and employment.”

                    “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for October (54.4 percent) corresponds to a 1.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                    Full release here.

                    China exports to US dropped -9.7% from Jan to Apr, imports dropped -30.4%

                      Latest trade data from China showed that growth in exports in other regions in 2019 so far was merely enough to offset contraction of -9.7% ytd yoy in exports to US. Total export grew a mere 0.2% ytd yoy. On the other hand, total exports contracted -2.5% ytd yoy, as dragged down by -30.4% ytd yoy contraction in exports from US. Trade with EU remained relatively healthy.

                      In USD terms, in April,

                      • Total trade grew 0.4% to USD 373.14B.
                      • Exports contracted -2.7% yoy to USD 193.49B.
                      • Import rose 4.0% yoy to USD 179.65B.
                      • Trade surplus came in at USD 13.84B

                      In USD terms, from January to April total:

                      • Total trade contracted -1.1% yoy to USD 1399.82B.
                      • Exports rose 0.2% yoy to USD 744.61B.
                      • Imports dropped -2.5% to USD 655.21B.
                      • Trade surplus came in at USD 894.0B.

                      With US, from January to April total

                      • Total trade contracted -15.7% yoy to USD 161.2.
                      • Exports to US contracted -9.7% yoy to USD 122.4B.
                      • Imports from US dropped -30.4% yoy to USD 39.8B.
                      • Trade surplus came in at USD 82.6B.

                      With EU, from January to April total:

                      • Total trade grew 5.9% yoy to USD 220.1B.
                      • Exports to EU rose 8.3% yoy to USD 131.5B.
                      • Imports from EU rose 2.5% yoy to USD 88.5B.
                      • Trade surplus came in at USD 43B.

                      With AU, from January to April total:

                      • Total trade grew 6.65 yoy to USD 51.1B.
                      • Exports to AU rose 3.4% to USD 14.3B.
                      • Imports from AU rose 7.9% to 36.8B.
                      • Trade deficit came in at USD -36.8B.

                      Summary release.

                      Trade data by region.

                      CAD/JPY resumes rally after BoC

                        CAD/JPY edges higher after BoC rate decision, which carries no surprise.. For now, there is no clear follow through buying yet. But we’ll tentatively treat the development as rally resumption. Focus is on 81.91 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 81.91 to 61.8% projection of 73.80 to 81.91 from 77.91 at 82.92. However, break of 81.16 minor support will delay the bullish case and bring more consolidations first.

                        Fed minutes: Some time until substantial further progress made

                          Minutes of March 16-17 FOMC meeting reiterated the assessment that it will take “some time” until “substantial further progress” is made towards Fed’s targets. The asset purchases will continue “at least at the current pace” until then. Also, if there would be any changes in the QE program, they would be communicated to the public “well in advance of time”.

                          “Participants noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized and that, consistent with the Committee’s outcome-based guidance, asset purchases would continue at least at the current pace until then,” the minutes said.

                          Additionally, “a number of participants highlighted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases.”

                          “The timing of such communications would depend on the evolution of the economy and the pace of progress toward the Committee’s goals.”

                          Full minutes here.

                          North Korea Kim pledges positive and offensive security measures

                            North Korea somewhat catches some attention in a very quiet start to the week, end to the year. State media KCNA reported that, on Sunday, leader Kim Jong Un emphasized the need to take “positive and offensive measures for fully ensuring the sovereignty and security of the country”. Kim said that at the largest plenary session of the Workers’ Party since 2013.

                            Separately, ABC reported that North Korea promised to deliver a “Christmas gift” to the US. Some saw that as echoing the “positive and offensive measures” and could point to some long-range missile tests, or even more nuclear weapons tests.

                            On the issues, White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien said: “We’ll reserve judgment, but the United States will take action as we do in these situations. If Kim Jong Un takes that approach, we’ll be extraordinarily disappointed and we’ll demonstrate that disappointment.”

                            RBA Lowe: Still plausible that rate won’t be raised before 2024

                              In a speech, RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated, “the latest data and forecasts do not warrant an increase in the cash rate in 2022.” Also, it’s “still plausible that the first increase in the cash rate will not be before 2024” even if underlying inflation hits 2.5%.

                              He said, the central scenario is that underlying inflation will reach “middle of the target by the end of 2023”. That would be the first time in nearly seven years that inflation is at the mid-point. And, “this, by itself, does not warrant an increase in the cash rate.”

                              For rate hike, RBA would like to see inflation “well within the 2–3 per cent range”, and, ” have a reasonable degree of confidence that it will not fall back again”. The “trajectory” is important, “with a slow drift up in underlying inflation having different policy implications to a sharp rise.”

                              Another important consideration will be developments in the labor market. wages growth is used as one of the “guideposts” and “it is likely that wages will need to be growing at 3 point something per cent to sustain inflation around the middle of the target band.”

                              Full speech here.

                              Trump: Tariff is about stopping drugs as well as illegals!

                                Trump continued his tariff threat on Mexico with his tweets. He blamed Mexico has “advantage of the United States for decades” and “makes a fortune” for decades. And it’s “time for them to finally do what must be done.

                                Further, he said if tariffs start rising, “companies will leave Mexico, which has taken 30% of our Auto Industry, and come back home to the USA”. And “Tariff is about stopping drugs as well as illegals!”

                                Sounds like tariff is the universal cure for everything!

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                                US oil inventory dropped -10m barrels, WTI rebounds in range

                                  US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped -10m barrels in the week ending August 23. The decline was way larger than expectation of -2.8m barrels fall. At 427.8m barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

                                  WTI crude oil jumps sharply in response to the data release. Focus is now back on 57.32 resistance. Break will resume the rise from 50.43 to 100% projection of 50.43 to 57.32 from 52.84 at 59.73. Overall, WTI is staying in range of 50.64/60.93. Thus, we’d look for resistance from 60.93 to extend range trading.

                                  Japan GDP rebounded with weak momentum, but avoided recession

                                    Japan GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q3, rebounding from Q3’s -0.6% qoq contraction. The good news is that Japan avoided a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of contraction. But growth was disappointing and missed expectation of 0.4% qoq. GDP deflator dropped -0.3% yoy, slightly better than expectation of -0.4% yoy.

                                    Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said in a statement that “the economy is in gradual recovery as growth is led by private demand”. However, “China-bound exports of information-related materials have weakened as the Chinese economy slowed”. He added that the government needs to “monitor uncertainty over global economic outlook including Chinese economy as well as fluctuations in financial markets.”

                                    Fed’s Kugler: Labor market stable, likely near maximum employment

                                      In a speech today, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler described the U.S. labor market as “stable,” noting that key indicators such as the unemployment rate, currently at 4.2%, have remained within a narrow and consistent range.

                                      She highlighted that temporary layoffs have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and both job vacancies and quit rates have plateaued, indicating a moderation in labor market churn.

                                      Kugler further stated that the economy is likely “close to maximum employment,” referencing model-based estimates of the natural rate of unemployment (u*) that align with the current 4.2% level.

                                      Full speech of Fed’s Kugler here.

                                      Germany Ifo business climate ticked down to 92.3

                                        Germany Ifo business climate dropped slightly from 93.0 to 92.3 in June, below expectation of 92.9. Current assessment index dropped from 99.6 to 99.3, above expectation of 99.0. Expectations index dropped 86.9 to 85.8, below expectation of 87.4.

                                        By sector, manufacturing dropped from 2.7 to 0.3. Service rose from 8.2 to 10.8. Trade dropped from -10.7 to -14.8. Construction rose from -13.4 to -9.7.

                                        Ifo said: “Companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation. Their expectations turned markedly more pessimistic. The threat of gas shortages is of great concern to the German economy.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ opinions: A blend of caution and optimism

                                          Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s September 21-22 meeting reiterated the general stance that ultra-loose monetary policy remains necessary for now. Yet, there was an undercurrent of optimism, with some members seeing achieve of price target “in sight”.

                                          The collective view reinforced that the “sustainable and stable achievement of the price stability target, accompanied by wage increases, has not yet come in sight.” Given this scenario, the summary stressed the necessity to “patiently continue with monetary easing under yield curve control.”

                                          Underpinning the continued focus on wages, one member stated it is “necessary” to uphold the “momentum for wage hikes through continuation of monetary easing.” Also, in order to achieve inflation target of 2 percent in a sustainable manner, it is necessary that “wage increases take root.”

                                          However, amid the cautious tones, rays of optimism emerged. One member opined that “Japan’s economy is getting closer to achieving the price stability target, although there is somewhat of a distance to go.” Providing a potential timeline for evaluating the price stability objective, focus is now on “the second half of fiscal 2023” especially considering the wage growth prospects for 2024.

                                          Furthering this optimism, another viewpoint conveyed confidence, indicating that “Achievement of 2 percent inflation in a sustainable and stable manner seems to have clearly come in sight.” This perspective also hinted at a clearer outcome by “January to March of next year.”

                                          Full BoJ Summary of Opinions here.