Japan Aso: US-China relation developing into not just trade war

    Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso warned on Yen’s recent gains today and emphasized importance of exchange rate stability. He spoke as Yen surges through key levels on risk aversion, after Trump announced new tariffs on China. Aso said Yen’s fluctuation “will have various impacts”. And “at least, current stability is extremely important. We need to pay close attention to the markets”.

    On Trump’s new tariffs on China, Aso said “this will surely affect China’s economy, which I think will have various impacts on the global economy”. And, “there’s already a movie among companies to shift factories out of China. It’s developing into not just trade war but various other things, so it warrants careful attention.”

    Australia retail sales rose 0.4%, growth in five of six industries

      Australia retail sales rose 0.40% mom in June, above expectation of 0.3%. This followed 0.1% rise back in May. Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys said “there were rises in five of the six industries this month, although overall the retail environment remains subdued”. Full release here.

      In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.3%), Western Australia (0.8%), Queensland (0.4%), Victoria (0.3%), Tasmania (1.5%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.3%). South Australia (-0.3%) and the Northern Territory (-0.2%) fell.

      Also from Australia, PPI rose 0.4% qoq, 2.0% yoy in Q2, above expectation of 0.2% qoq, 1.9% yoy.

      Trump announces new tariffs on China, effective Sep 1

        Just days after US trade team concluded a meeting with China in Shanghai, Trump suddenly announced to start imposing 10% tariffs on USD 300B of Chinese imports. That’s effectively the rest of all untaxed Chinese goods. New tariffs are expected to take effective on September 1.

        Trump complained that Chinese President Xi Jinping was “not going fast enough” with his promises even Xi wanted to make a deal. And he threatened to raise tariffs further if China fails to more move quickly onwards. That could include moving beyond 25% tariffs already imposed on another USD 250B of Chinese imports.

        In the financial markets, Yen surged broadly on risk aversion in reaction to sharp decline in stocks and treasury yields. DOW closed down -1.05% overnight. S&P 500 dropped -0.90%. NASDAQ dropped -0.79%. 10-year yield dropped -0.127 to 1.894, making new 2019 low. In Asia, Hong Kong HSI gapped down and is currently down -2.37%.

        US ISM manufacturing dropped to 51.2, lowest since Aug 2016, sentiments evenly mixed

          US ISM Manufacturing index dropped to 51.2 in July, down from 51.7, missed expectation of 52.0. That’s also the lowest reading since August 2016.

          Looking at some details: New orders rose 0.8 to 50.8. Production dropped -3.3 to 50.8. Employment dropped -2.8 to 51.7. Prices dropped -2.8 to 45.1.

          ISM said that “Respondents expressed less concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains a significant issue. More respondents noted supply chain adjustments as a result of moving manufacturing from China. Overall, sentiment this month is evenly mixed”.

          Full release here.

          BoE revised down growth forecasts notably, despite lower conditioned rate path

            In the latest BoE quarterly inflation report, GDP growth was revised quite notably low for 2019 and 2020. Four-quarter GDP growth to Q3 2019 was revised down from 1.2% to 1.0%. That for Q3 2020 was revised down from 1.7% to 1.4. Though, that for Q3 2021 was revised up from 2.1% to 2.4%. CPI inflation for Q3 2019 was revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%. That for Q3 2020 was revised up from 1.7% to 1.9%. And that for Q3 2021 was revised up from 2.1% to 2.2%.

            Bank rate projection was unchanged for Q3 2019, at 0.7%. For Q3 2020 and 2021, Bank Rate forecasts were both revised to 0.5%, down from 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. The path for Bank Rate was implied by forward market interest rates.

            Full Inflation Report here.

            BoE stands pat on unanimous votes, little reaction in Sterling

              BoE left Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected. Asset purchase target was also kept at GBP 435B. Both decisions were made by unanimous vote. BoE noted in the statement that “global trade tensions have intensified and global activity has remained soft.” That led to “substantial decline” in forecast interest rates in advanced economies and “material loosening in financial conditions”, including the UK. Also, an “increased perceived likelihood” of no-deal Brexit further lowered UK interest rate and led to Sterling’s “marked depreciation.

              BoE also maintained that “assuming a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth, a significant margin of excess demand is likely to build in the medium term.”
              And “were that to occur, the Committee judges that increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.”

              Full statement here.

              Sterling is steady after the release, having effectively no reaction. GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 131.61 temporary low. Such consolidation is expected to be relatively briefly and larger decline should resume sooner rather than later.

              UK PMI manufacturing unchanged at 48.0, manufacturing sector suffocating under choke-hold

                UK PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 48.0 in July, above expectation of 47.7. That’s also the lowest reading since February 2013. Markit noted that output, new orders and employment fell again. Though, businesses forecast output to be higher in one year’s time.

                Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                “July saw the UK manufacturing sector suffocating under the choke-hold of slower global economic growth, political uncertainty and the unwinding of earlier Brexit stockpiling activity. Production volumes fell at the fastest pace in seven years as clients delayed, cancelled or re-routed orders away from the UK, leading to a further decline in new work intakes from both domestic and overseas markets.

                “The weak, highly competitive environment makes a sustained revival highly unlikely in the coming months. However, a short-lived bounce leading up to October should not be ruled out, as some manufacturers are already gearing up to re-start Brexit preparations. If so, expect a case of déjà-vu during quarter four, as another correction in inventory holdings hits growth in the lead-up to year-end. On a more positive note, there may still be brighter times over the horizon. Over two-fifths of companies expect to see higher output a year from now, assuming political uncertainties and global trade tensions ease as expected.”

                Full release here.

                Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.5, monetary policy could do little to address headwinds

                  Eurozone PMI Manufacturing is finalized at 46.5 in July, revised up from 46.4, down from June’s final of 47.6. Markit said output and orders were both down markedly as confidence hit lowest since December 2012. Also, there was sharpest recorded reduction in employment for over six years.

                  Looking at the member states, Germany PMI manufacturing hit 84-month low at 43.2. Austria hit 57-month low of 47.0. Italy and Spain recovered slightly to 48.5 and 48.2 respectively. Ireland hit 75-month low of 48.7. France hit 7 month low of 49.7.

                  Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                  “The Eurozone PMI dashboard is a sea of red, with all lights warning on the deteriorating health of the region’s manufacturers. July saw production and jobs being cut as the fastest rates for over six years as order books continued to decline sharply. Prices fell at the sharpest rate for over three years as firms increasingly competed via discounting to help limit the scale of sales losses.

                  “Forward indicators also deteriorated. Input buying fell to an extent not seen since 2012 as firms prepared for weaker production in the short term, and expectations for the year ahead likewise fell to the lowest in over six-and-a-half years.

                  “The downturn is being led by Germany, reflective of a further worsening conditions in the auto sector and falling global demand for business equipment. However, output is also falling in Italy, France, Spain, Ireland and Austria and is close to stalling in the Netherlands. Greece notably bucked the deteriorating trend.

                  “Rising geopolitical concerns, including trade wars and Brexit, and worries about slower economic growth both domestically and internationally were all widely reported as having subdued current demand and hit confidence in the outlook. The concern is that, while policymakers have become increasingly alarmed at the deteriorating conditions, there may be little that monetary policy can do to address these headwinds.”

                  Full release here.

                  China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 49.9, government’s policies taking effect

                    China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose to 49.9 in July, up from 49.4 and beat expectation of 49.6. Markit noted that production stabilized amid slight uptick in new work. However, employment fell at the quickest pace for give months. Also, factory gate prices declined for the first time since January.

                    Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

                    “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9 in July, although it remained in contractionary territory.

                    “The subindices for new orders and output both returned to expansionary territory, and the gauge for new export orders rose slightly, though it remained in contractionary territory. This indicates that domestic demand recovered, and overseas demand was stable. The subindex for employment dipped further into negative territory, suggesting that the labor market didn’t improve.

                    “While the subindex for stocks of purchased items fell into contractionary territory, the measure for stocks of finished goods dropped further into decline, reflecting that increased orders consumed inventories to some extent. The measure for future output jumped in July, pointing to an increase in confidence among businesses. The gauge for output charges dropped into negative territory, while that for input costs remained in positive territory despite a mild fall. This was a sign of downward pressure on the profitability of downstream companies.

                    “China’s manufacturing economy showed signs of recovery in July. Business confidence rebounded, reflecting the strong resilience in the economy. Policies such as tax and fee reductions designed to underpin the economy had an effect. The situation may strengthen policymakers’ insistence to regulate the property market and the finance industry.”

                    Full release here.

                    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.4, downturn has now become deeply rooted

                      Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.4 in July, revised down from 49.6, just fractionally above June’s 49.3.

                      Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                      “Latest manufacturing PMI data did little to suggest that the worst has passed for the global goods-producing sector. Japanese manufacturers cut output for the seventh consecutive month amid soft demand from domestic and overseas clients.

                      “While slowing global growth in key export markets such as China and spillover effects from global trade spats remain a principal concern to companies, the risk now of Japan-South Korea relations deteriorating further merely adds to the already-strong headwinds.

                      “Forward-looking survey indicators suggest that manufacturers in Japan are set for another difficult quarter, as firms scaled down stocks and input purchasing to keep a lid on costs.

                      “Furthermore, more signs that the manufacturing downturn has now become deeply rooted was apparent in prices data, as output charges were reduced at the fastest pace in nearly three years amid increasing efforts to stimulate sluggish demand.”

                      Full release here.

                      Australian PMI rebounds to 51.3, but performance gap widens

                        Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 51.3 in July, up from 49.4, back in expansion. AiG noted that “performance gap between the expanding and contracting manufacturing sectors has grown in recent months.” July’s improvement was driven by building materials, wood, furniture & other’ manufacturers, the large food & beverages sector and the chemicals sector. However, heavy industrial sectors (metals, machinery & equipment) continue to report weak conditions. Local demand remains weak but overseas demand remains strong. Also from Australia, import price index rose 0.9% qoq in Q2, below expectation of 1.8% qoq.

                        BoJ Amamiya: Prepared to take policy actions to prevent risks from materializing

                          BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya signals today that the central bank stand ready to loosen up monetary policy further. In a speech to business leaders, he said, “the BOJ is no different from other major central banks, in that it is prepared to take, if necessary, policy action to prevent risks from materializing.”

                          He added that overseas risks could spillover to Japan and, “We need to be mindful that the economy may lose momentum if risks, mainly those from overseas economies, materialize”. BoJ’s tool set includes rate cuts and asset purchases and policy makers may “combine these steps or apply them in various forms.”

                          Dollar rally solidified by Trump’s tweets that bash Fed chair Powell

                            Dollar surges broadly overnight after Fed cut interest rate by -25bps to 2.00-2.25% as widely expected. The trigger for Dollar buying came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. He described the rate cut as a “mid-cycle” adjustment of policy, and then added he was “contrasting with the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”. The message was clear that he tried to talk down the expectations of further interest rate cuts ahead. The key would be developments in global economy, trade tensions, domestic data and inflation.

                            Suggested readings on FOMC:

                            Trump bashed Powell again with his tweets. Trump said “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world….As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!”

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                            Ironically, Trumps tweets somehow confirmed market understanding of what Powell tried to deliver. And they help solidify Dollar’s rally and stocks’ selloff. DOW dropped -1.23% overnight. S&P 500 dropped -1.09% and NASDAQ dropped -1.19%. While a short term top was clearly formed at 3027.98 record high in S&P 500, it’s too early to call for reversal. The uptrend looks tired with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there will be first line of defense from 55 day EMA and then second line in medium term trend line. Recent uptrend starts to look week but it’s still healthy.

                            Dollar jumps as Fed chair Powell said today’s cut is just mid-cycle adjustment

                              Dollar rally solidifies after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicates in the post meeting press conference that, today’s rate cut is a “mid-cycle” adjustment of policy. He further clarifies later that he was “contrasting with the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”. Fed will keep on monitoring the risks from global slowdown, trade, domestic growth and inflation, in adjustment of future policy path. However, today’s cut , as Powell hints, doesn’t guarantee and imply there will be further rate cuts ahead.

                              EUR/USD drops through 1.1107 key support decisively, after recovery was rejected by falling 4 hour 55 EMA. The pair was also rejected well by 55 week EMA too. Down trend from 1.2555 is resuming and next medium term target will be 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0862.

                              In the stock markets, DOW dives sharply and hits as low as 27812.62. It’s currently down around -1.1%, or -300 pts.

                              Fed Chair Powell’s press conference live stream

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                                Fed cut interest rates to 2.00-2.25%, full statement

                                  Fed cuts federal funds rate by -25bps to 2.00-2.25%. The decision was made by 8-2 vote, with two known hawks, Esther George and Eric Rosengren dissenting.

                                  Fed noted that household spending growth has picked up but growth of business fixed investment “has been soft”. Headline and core inflation are “running below” 2%. And, in light of the “implications of global developments” and “muted inflation pressures” FOMC decided to cut interest rates.

                                  Fed also pledged to continue to monitor the “implications of incoming information” to decide future interest rate path. The assessment will “take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”

                                  Full statement below.

                                  Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

                                  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

                                  Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

                                  In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

                                  The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

                                  Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

                                  US oil inventories dropped -8.5m barrles, WTI mildly higher

                                    US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -8.5m barrels in the week ending July 26, more than expectation of -2.5m barrels. At 436.5m barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

                                    WTI crude oil’s recovery from 54.79 extends slightly higher after the release. But upside momentum is not too convincing for now. Price actions from 60.93 are still seen as correcting the rise from 50.64. Such consolidation could extend further for a while. Therefore, we don’t expect a break of 60.93 in case of further rally. Instead, another fall through 54.79 is mildly in favor at a later stage when the correcting extends.

                                    Canada GDP grew 0.2% in May, third straight month of expansion

                                      Canada GDP grew for a third consecutive month in May, by 0.2% mom, beat expectation of 0.1% mom. The increase was led by a rebound in manufacturing with 13 out of 20 industrial sectors expanding. On a three-month rolling average basis, real gross domestic product increased 0.7%.

                                      Also from Canada, IPPI dropped -1.4% mom in June versus expectation of -0.1% mom. RMPI dropped -5.9% mom versus expectation of -0.4% mom.

                                      USD/CAD dips after the releases. But it’s staying above 1.3116 minor support. Rebound in 1.3016 is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

                                      US ADP employment grew 156k, job growth still healthy but slowing

                                        US ADP private employment grew 156k in July, slightly above expectation of 150k. Prior month’s figure was revised up from 102k to 112k. Goods producing jobs rise 9k. Service-providing jobs rose 146k.

                                        “While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.”

                                        Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is healthy, but steadily slowing. Small businesses are suffering the brunt of the slowdown. Hampering job growth are labor shortages, layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers, and fallout from weaker global trade.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        China MOFCOM: Candid, effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade and economic issues with US

                                          Regarding the two-day face-to-face US-China trade talks in Shanghai, Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “both sides, according to the consensus reached by the two leaders in Osaka, had a candid, highly effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade and economic issues of mutual interest”.

                                          The Ministry also noted in the statement that “the two sides also discussed that China will increase its procurement of US agricultural products according to domestic needs and the US will create favorable conditions for procurement.”

                                          On the Chinese side, Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan and Governor of the People’s Bank of China Yi Gang, participated with involvements from Central Finance Office, Finance Ministry, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Industry and Information Technology Ministry, Central Agricultural Office, Ministry of Agriculture, etc.

                                          Next high-level trade meeting will be held in the US in September.