ECB de Guindos: Eurozone slowdown raises financial stability risks

    Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that weak Eurozone growth is raising financial stability risks due to weakening bank profits and rising concern over sovereign debt sustainability.

    De Guindos said in a conference in Frankfurt that “in an environment where cyclical factors may exert further downward pressure on bank profitability, banks would need to step up their efforts to overcome structural challenges”.

    Also, “such measures may include cost reductions – including lower staffing costs and streamlining of branch networks, enhanced digitalization – implying initial, one-off large-scale investments, revenue diversification and the reduction of the stock of non-performing loans in the six countries where levels are still high.”

    NIESR forecasts 0.3% UK GDP growth in Q1

      NIESR forecast UK GDP to grow by 0.3% in Q1, aligns with a pattern of “low, but stable economic growth,” suggesting a potential “turning point” for the nation after slipping into a technical recession in the latter half of 2023.

      The forecast comes with a critical analysis of UK’s economic stagnation, emphasizing the necessity for “structural changes” to break free from the so-called low-growth trap. The institute’s recommendation underscores the importance of bolstering public investment, particularly in pivotal areas such as infrastructure, education, and health.

      Full NIESR release here.

      Japan Motegi: Trade deal in August just Trump’s hopes, two sides still narrowing the gap

        Japan Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said today that Trump’s comment regarding a trade deal in August just reflects his own hope for quick progress in the negotiations. For now, the two sides are still working on “narrowing the gap”.

        Motegi told reporters, “When you look at the exact wording of his comments, you can see that the president was voicing his hopes of swift progress in talks toward something that is mutually beneficial.” He also reiterated the differences between US and Japan, and no timetable had yet be set for more meetings. He noted, “we’ve agreed that we’ll strive to narrow the gap, including through possibly holding working-level talks.”

        Trump said on Monday, after meeting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan, that he expected the two countries to be “announcing some things, probably in August, that will be very good for both countries” on trade.

        China confirms Liu He to go to US next week for trade deal signing

          Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington next week to sign the first phase of trade agreement with US. Liu will be in US from January 13 to 15 as head of the delegation. Also, he will travel with the titles of Politburo member, vice premier and top trade negotiator.

          There are no details regarding the 86-page trade deal yet. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer expected the document to be released after signing. One of the mostly concerned part is China’s USD 200B purchases of US goods and services. But Gao declined to comment on the amount of the purchase.

          Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, Day 2, live stream

            YouTube

            By loading the video, you agree to YouTube’s privacy policy.
            Learn more

            Load video

             

            Japan still aiming for a US trade deal by the end of the month

              Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Masato Ohtaka reiterated the target to sign a trade agreement with US by the end of this month. He noted that “we still have some time and all my colleagues in the government are making their best efforts to actually meet this target”. Separately, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga also said that “With the U.N. General Assembly meeting in mind, we are accelerating the remaining work, including the wording of a trade agreement.”

              Japan officials and business executives have expressed concern of signing a trade deal with assurance from the US on not imposing tariffs on Japanese cars. That’s the key issue that might drag the negotiations through the self-imposed deadline. However, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, said alongside US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, that he had no concern on the auto tariff threats. Motegi expected no much of a delay on the trade agreement.

              China PMI manufacturing dropped to 51.2, short term downward pressure emerged

                The official China PMI manufacturing dropped -0.3 to 51.2 in July, below expectation of 51.3. Official PMI services dropped -1.0 to 54.0, missed expectation of 55.0. Analyst Zhang Liqun noted in the release that despite the slight decline in the PMI index, “steady growth of the economy remained unchanged”. However, “short term downward pressure has emerged”.

                Looking at the details, eight of the sub-indices declined in the month. They include production, new order, purchase volume, import, purchase price, ex-factory price, suppliers delivery, production and operation expectation, New export orders, was unchanged but in contraction region at 49.8. The data set is seen by some as the first sign of impact from increasing trade tension with the US.

                Full release here in simplified Chinese.

                CBI Fairbairn” Businesses not dancing in the streets for Brexit delay

                  CBI Director General Carolyn Fairbairn, criticized that the Brexit delay till October 31 only provides “brief relief” for businesses. And they wouldn’t be “dancing in the streets”. Instead, it will be quickly followed by ” frustration, exasperation, we’re still here.”

                  She added that “our huge hope off the back of this six-month reprieve is that it’s used to set up a process and it’s not just people locked in a room on their own which we’ve seen in the last few days.”

                  ECB Nagel: We’re coming to the home stretch, but we need to stay stubborn

                    In an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel painted a cautiously optimistic picture of ECB’s monetary policy landscape, implying that restrictive measures were beginning to bear fruit.

                    “We’re coming to the home stretch in the sense that we are reaching the area in monetary policy that’s considered restrictive,” Nagel noted, suggesting that ECB’s tightened policy stance was close to hitting its intended mark. He asserted his confidence that the monetary policy was indeed manifesting its effect.

                    However, he was quick to emphasize that ECB’s task was far from complete. “But we are not done hiking yet,” he added, “There is still work to be done on core inflation.”

                    Nagel emphasized the importance of staying the course with the current monetary policy, urging persistence. “We need to stay stubborn,” he said, reinforcing his commitment to seeing the central bank’s measures through.

                    Addressing concerns about the potential impact of the ongoing banking sector upheaval in the US on German banks, Nagel sought to allay fears. “German banks are in a fundamentally solid position,” he assured, indicating that he did not share the prevailing apprehensions over the stability of German banks.

                    White House Navarro insists Mexico should share their responsibility and take asylum seekers

                      Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard will meet US Vice President Mike Pence at 1900 GMT today on the issue of tariffs and migration flow. The Mexican delegation is expected to use their every efforts to convince the US to avert the tariffs that Trump threatened to impose starting on June 10.

                      Ahead of the meeting White House economic adviser Peter Navarro said that it’s important to get the US-Mexico border issue solved. And he insisted that the Mexican government must bear their share of the responsibility. And the most important thing is for the Mexican government to take the asylum seekers.

                      Fed’s Kugler expects rate cut this year amid cooling demand

                        Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said overnight that if the disinflation process and labor market conditions evolve in line with her current expectations, a policy rate reduction within the year could be warranted.

                        “With demand growth cooling, given the backdrop of solid supply, my baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment,” Kugler stated

                        “If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate,” she remarked.

                         

                        ECB’s Nagel: Rate cut may be tempting, but it’s not time yet

                          In the annual report from Bundesbank, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel emphasized the importance of caution and patience. “Even though it may be very tempting, it is too early to cut interest rates. This is because the price outlook is not yet clear enough,” Nagel stated.

                          Furthermore, Nagel’s call for perseverance reflects an understanding of the challenges inherent in steering monetary policy towards achieving price stability. “We should not let ourselves stray away from the path we have embarked on,” he advised, emphasizing the need for consistency and resilience in ECB’s policy stance.

                           

                          UK Fox: Changes in EU’s Brexit position due to economic slowdown

                            UK Trade Minister Liam Fox said today that EU is now more afraid of no-deal Brexit due to economic slowdown , including Germany and France. Fox said “there have been some changes in the positions in recent times, dictated by reality”.

                            And, “We’ve seen, for example, the German economy weakening, we’ve seen the French economy weakening, and I think this (EU) view that ‘we can simply weather out any disturbance that would occur from a no deal’, I think there’s much less appetite for that.”

                            Bundesbank: Output to rise sharply in summer

                              In the monthly report, Bundesbank said German economic output is “likely to rise sharply in summer 2021”, more strongly than in Spring. Industry was unable to take advantage of the growth in Q2 due to increased delivery bottlenecks. But there are initial signs that these delivery bottlenecks are “at least not worsening”. It remains to be seen if GDP could reach pre-crisis level in Summer or not until Autumn.

                              Inflation is expected to continue to rise in Germany, but then “decrease noticeably again at the beginning of 2022”, as the base effect will then no longer apply. Though, inflation could still be over 2% until mid-2022.

                              Fed’s Goolsbee urges prudence and patience amid financial stress

                                Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stressed the importance of a cautious approach to monetary policy during times of financial stress. He stated yesterday, “At moments like this, of financial stress, the right monetary approach calls for prudence and patience – for assessing the potential impact of financial stress on the real economy.”

                                Goolsbee highlighted the need to understand credit tightening before Fed’s next meeting in May, saying, “The foremost thing on my mind before our next meeting in May is trying to get a handle on this question about credit: is it actually credit tightening?”

                                Emphasizing the current uncertainty, Goolsbee urged caution, adding, “We should gather further data and be careful about raising rates too aggressively until we see how much work the headwinds are doing for us in getting down inflation.” He noted that if the response to recent banking issues leads to financial tightening, “monetary policy has to do less.”

                                BoC Schembri: Rate to stay at ELB until excess capacity is absorbed

                                  BoC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said yesterday, “Our assessment of labour market conditions and underlying capacity and inflationary pressures is now more difficult. Consequently, more uncertainty exists around the timing of when the output gap will close and inflation will return sustainably to our 2-per-cent target.”

                                  “We’ll keep the policy rate at the effective lower bound [0.25%] until excess capacity is absorbed … that excess capacity includes all the groups of employees that aren’t fully employed at this juncture,” Schembri said in response to a question after the speech.

                                  “Now of course, one has to take into account that there’s going to be some natural friction in the labour market, people are going to move between jobs, so we’re not saying that there has to be zero unemployment,” he added.

                                  UK PM May on Brexit vote: My deal, no deal, or no Brexit

                                    In a BBC radio interview, UK Prime Minister Theresa May tried to play down the chance of delaying the December 11, Tuesday, Brexit vote in the parliament. And she added what she’s doing is leading up to the vote, rather than talking about delaying it.

                                    May said that there are three options for the MPs. The first one is leaving EU with a deal, that is her deal. Second is leading EU with no deal. And the final one is having no Brexit at fall. She also insisted that if the deal is voted down, it’s up for those who opposed to propose a plan B.

                                    Separately, the European Court of Justice said it will deliver the judgement, on December 10 at 0800GMT, on whether UK can unilaterally reverse Brexit. That would be a day ahead of the scheduled UK parliamentary vote. Earlier this week, ECJ’s advocate general said that UK has the right to withdraw Brexit notice unilaterally, up to the point of formal conclusion of the deal. It’s generally expected, while not binding, ECJ will follow the advocate’s opinion.

                                    Canada Freeland won’t meet USTR Lighthizer until more technical discussions are done

                                      Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said that she won’t hold NAFTA talks with USTR Robert Lighthizer until some more work is completed. She told reporters that “we decided that in order to have another productive conversation, it would be best to give our officials some time to hold technical discussions.”

                                      It’s believed that dairy, cultural protection and dispute resolution mechanism remained the deadlocks. But Freeland said the talks have “absolutely not” hit a stalemate. And even though she won’t be present, Canada’s chief NAFTA negotiator, as well as the country’s ambassador to the United States, will fly back to Washington on Wednesday night.

                                      RBA minutes indicate easing bias, but wait-and-see first

                                        In the minutes of July 2 RBA rate meetings, it’s noted that “the Board would continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”

                                        The conclusion indicates that RBA is still adopting an easing bias after cutting interest rate in both June and July meeting. However, the next move will come “if needed”, as the central will first “monitor developments” to see how the economy reacts to the prior rate cuts.

                                        Full minutes here.

                                        Australian Dollar firms up mildly after the release. Yet, AUD/JPY is staying below 76.28 resistance. Thus, there could be more consolidations before rebound from 73.93 resumes. Break of 76.28 is expected eventually as long as 75.13 support holds.

                                        AUD/USD is still eyeing 0.7047 resistance for now. Break will resume the rebound from 0.6831. Though, rejection by 0.7047, followed by 0.6983 minor support, will turn bias to the downside for 0.6910 support.

                                        EU said to mull Brexit flextension rather than more short extensions

                                          While UK PM May is seeking Brexit extension till June 30, it’s reported that EU Tusk is considering “flextension” instead.

                                          An unnamed EU official was quoted saying “the only reasonable way out would be a long but flexible extension. I would call it a ‘flextension’.” That is, “we could give the UK a year-long extension, automatically terminated once the Withdrawal Agreement has been accepted and ratified by the House of Commons”.

                                          One clear advantage is that even if the Commons cannot approve the WA, “UK would still have enough time to rethink its Brexit strategy. A short extension if possible, and a long one if necessary. It seems to be a good scenario for both sides, as it gives the UK all the necessary flexibility, while avoiding the need to meet every few weeks to further discuss Brexit extensions”.