Market movers ahead

  • We expect the Fed to make a dovish policy shift at the upcoming meeting.
  • June PMI figures on both sides of the Atlantic will give more clues on whether the cyclical downturn continues.
  • In Europe, a range of important decisions loom at the EU summit and markets will keep a close watch on monetary policy hints from the ECB’s Sintra Forum.
  • The UK Conservative Party leadership contest continues, while the Bank of England meeting should not bring much news.
  • We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its assessment of the economy at its meeting.
  • We expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%.

Weekly wrap-up

  • Calls for central bank easing are getting louder both in the US and Europe.
  • We published our updated global view in The Big Picture (audio recording here ).
  • ECB credibility continues to be challenged with euro area (market-based) inflation expectations nose-diving.
  • Trade conflicts and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on risk sentiment.

Full report in PDF.

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