Summary
United States: Employment Friday That Wasn’t
- The first Friday of the month has come, but since the U.S. federal government is shut down, it didn’t bring with it the latest read on the jobs market. The manufacturing and services sector purchasing manager surveys suggest activity held up at the end of the third quarter, but underlying conditions remain uneasy.
- Next week: Trade Balance (Tue.), Consumer Credit (Tue.)
International: Mix of Economic Data from Advanced and Emerging Economies
- This week saw a range of international economic data releases. On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its Cash Rate steady at 3.60%. In the Eurozone, inflation ticked higher but remained broadly in line with expectations. Across Asia, Japan’s Q3 Tankan survey reflected broadly favorable trends, while China’s PMI readings were more mixed but still suggested modest overall improvement.
- Next week: Japan Labor Cash Earnings (Wed.), RBNZ Policy Rate (Wed.), Norway CPI (Fri.)
Topic of the Week: Shutdown Showdown
- Fiscal year 2026 began on Wednesday, Oct. 1 with a government shutdown. The economic and financial market impact of a 1-2 week government shutdown should be modest, but a longer shutdown would be more painful, and the indefinite delay of key economic data clouds the near-term outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
