Summary
United States: Data Delayed, Decisions Loom
- The federal government shutdown continues to delay economic data releases, including international trade and jobless claims this week. That said, the September Consumer Price Index is now expected to be published before the end of the month, just in time for the FOMC’s next meeting.
- Next week: CPI (Wed.), Retail Sales (Thu.), Industrial Production (Fri.)
International: Global Economy: Stabilizing or Stalling?
- This week brought a mix of data releases from foreign economies. Japan’s wage growth slowed more than expected, while Canada’s labor market showed signs of stabilization. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its policy rate by 50 bps. And finally, in emerging markets, inflation in both Mexico and Brazil picked up.
- Next week: Australia Employment (Wed.), U.K. Monthly GDP (Thu.)
Topic of the Week: Seeing the Forest for the Trees
- New tariffs on imported wood products, which include softwood lumber, furniture and cabinets take effect on Oct. 14. We expect them to leave the overall U.S. average effective tariff rate unchanged at 18%. While the impact on consumer spending may be limited, construction costs could be pressured by new lumber tariffs.
