Wed, Nov 30, 2022 @ 14:57 GMT
HomeLive CommentsFed to hike 75bps as 10-year yield resumed up trend

Fed to hike 75bps as 10-year yield resumed up trend

FOMC rate decision is the main focus of the day and another jumbo rate hike is expected. Based on current market pricing, there is 82% chance of a 75bps hike to 3.00-3.25%, and just 18% chance of a 100bps hike to 3.25-3.50%. Thus, there is little chance for Fed to upset the markets.

Overall rhetoric should be unchanged that tightening is set to continue while Fed is committed to bring inflation down to target. The bigger questions are on the new economic projections and the dot plot. Some hawkish surprise could be seen there, which indicates higher terminal rate for current cycle, and a longer period to stay there.

Here are some previews:

US 10 year yields rose another 0.81 to close at 3.571 overnight, break through prior high at 3.483. The development confirmed resumption of up trend from 2020 low at 0.398. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.343 to 3.483 from 2.525 at 3.847. Hawkish surprise in today’s FOMC projections could accelerate TNX’s path to this target.

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