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Sterling Strongest as Brexit Deal Looks Relatively More Certain in a Chained Erratic World

It was another typical week with market moving headlines flying around. Being two highly anticipated non-events, BoE and ECB didn't disappoint investors by giving nothing new. On the other hand, there was a deep sense of nervousness ahead of Turkish central bank rate decision. The CBRT brought investors back...

Dollar Index Head-And-Shoulders Pattern In Play After Weak Inflation Data

With three central bank meetings on the schedule today, FX traders have been understandably focused away from the world's reserve currency. However, dollar bulls who were keyed in on this week's inflation data were no doubt disappointed. After last week's surprisingly strong reading in average hourly earnings, economists were hoping...

As US Set to Ramp Up Trade War with China, Where Next for the Dollar?

The US-China trade dispute is showing no sign of abating anytime soon as the Trump administration looks set to press ahead with its threat of $200 billion of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Financial markets started the month and the week on a negative tone as the prospect of...

Dollar Rises to Resistance ahead of Key US Data

After a quiet Monday, volatility returned in the markets this morning with European stock indices falling sharply, pulling lower with them US index futures. In FX markets, the dollar continued its upsurge while there was still no end in sight in the rout for emerging market currencies. Once again,...

Manufacturing Slow Down Is The Price For Trade Uncertainty

The markets are cautiously on buy for American stocks, and the dollar adds on fears that trade conflicts are seriously stifling the business sentiment in Europe and Asia. The MSCI Index of the Asia-Pacific region ex Japan loses 0.3%, Nikkei 225 decreases by 0.1%. Pressure on the European exchanges...

Markets Under Pressure Before The Busy Week

Asian markets have been declining for a third consecutive trading session on the fears of the Chinese-U.S. trade tensions escalating. The odds are that Trump will announce the expansion of tariffs for Chinese goods worth from $50 to $200 bln. on this coming Thursday. Already introduced tariffs significantly suppress investors’...

US Trade War Again Dominated, But Everyone Has Their Own Stories

The last week of August was unusually volatile and eventful. It's a week to remember yet it's hard to remember all the details. Almost every major currency got its own stories. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen ended as the first and third strongest ones on risk aversions. And apparently,...

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index Trading Bearish

USD Index made a nice-looking, three-wave drop from the 97.00 level which also looks to be part of a bearish impulse. We see a completed blue leg iii at 94.92 level from where a new sharp intra-day recovery began to unfold. This rise can be part of a minimum...

US Dollar Index Heads Lower But Remains in Upward Pattern

The US Dollar Index has declined considerably over the last three days following the bounce off the more than one-year high of 96.85, reached on August 15. The sharp sell-off, especially in the past sessions, has shifted the near-term bias from positive to negative. However, the price moved up...

US Dollar Index Bulls Watching Support After Last Week’s Bearish Reversal

The big breakout in the US Dollar Index earlier this month had dollar bulls turning their eyes skyward toward 97.00, 98.00, and even 100.00, but based on last week's price action, it may make sense for buyers to tap the brakes a bit. The greenback rallied on both Monday and...

Trade War Back as Main Theme as Turkish Crisis Eased, US and China to Meet

The forex markets turned into consolidative mode last week as Dollar and Yen lost momentum. Turkish currency crisis hit a climax on Monday but worries eased after the government's measures were well taken by investors. The fear of extra sanctions by the US on Turkey caused some jitters. But...

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index Update

USD Index is slowly turning to the downside, away from 96.98 level which is a sign that wave 3 found a top and corrective wave 4 is in play. As such we see current overlapping decline as sub-wave a of 4, which can once completed push price into a...

Markets Decline Resumes, Dollar Updates Its 13-Month Highs

The strengthening of financial markets on Tuesday has not been unsustainable and prolonged. Recent shots in the U.S. trade conflicts are: a China’s claim to the WTO about US tariffs on renewable energy imports and subsidies to their own producers; Turkey has put obstruction duties on a number of...

Looking Through the Turkish Currency Crisis, Dollar is Strong Anyway

It was one of those wild week in the financial markets with a number of market moving themes. New Zealand Dollar was the worst performing one after RBNZ made itself clear that interest rate is going to stay low for longer. And the next move could either be up...

Euro as a Casualty as US-China Trade War Turns into Something Bigger

Much volatility was seen in the markets last week with a lot of themes developed. Canadian Dollar ended as the strongest one as strong data boosted chance of August BoC hike. Swiss Franc followed as the second strongest on risk aversion in Europe. Dollar was original set to perform...

NFP Preview: Tired King Dollar Requires Big Beat

Before this eventful week is over, there’s just the small matter of the US monthly employment report to consider. Ahead of the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, the US dollar has regained its poise slightly, although it still remains stuck inside the one month-old range. Could the NFP...

Dollar Correction Potential

The US dollar looks rather fatigued and we think it may be set for a correction of some sort in the coming days. After a three-month rally, the Dollar Index is flat so far in July and with just one more day of the month left, we can’t see...

CAD, JPY and USD Ended as the Strongest in a Week of Trade Talk and Surging Yields

EU-US trade talk and surge in yields in Japan and the US were the two major themes last week. But it was Canadian Dollar which quietly ended as the strongest one last week. US holding off car tariffs is definitely a positive for Canada and could clear the way...

Dollar Bides Time ahead of ECB and US GDP

The general theme in our recent posts have been about a possible correction or a retracement of some sort in US dollar. The greenback has indeed stopped going up but it hasn’t exactly sold off. Well, at least not yet anyway. Market participants are probably waiting to hear from...

How Did Stocks, Bonds and Dollar React to Trump’s Attack on Fed?

Dollar was sold off sharply on Friday but, after all, it ended the week only as the third weakest. Sterling was the worst performing one after triple data disappointment, most notably CPI. The once done-deal BoE August rate hike is now back on the table. Australia Dollar ended as...

Dollar rally halted on Trump’s senseless comments on Fed

Dollar's rally was took to a halt by Trump's verbal interference on Fed's policies. Trump criticized in a CNBC interview that "I don't like all of this work that we're putting into the economy and then I see rates going up." And he complained that "because we go up...

Dollar Not Ready to Resume Up Trend Yet, Risk Appetite to Continue

Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones last week as global stock markets ended higher. There were some jitters in risk sentiments after US announced to move on with tariffs on additional USD 200B in China imports, which come effective as soon as in September. But investors...

The Long View: When Will Traders Jump Off the Bullish Dollar Trend?

Heading into this year, there was a convincing case for a dollar rally. After all, the world’s reserve currency had fallen sharply against most of its major rivals in 2017 as the luster of the pro-dollar “Trump Trade” wore off and the realities of governing set in. As a...

US, European and Asian Markets Reacted Differently to Start of US-China Trade War

The global markets reacted rather differently as the US-China trade war formally started while there were only signs of further escalations. Over the week, NASDAQ was a star performer and rose 2.37% to 7510.30. S&P 500 rose in tandem by 1.52% to 2759.82. DOW lagged behind but also managed...

NFP Recap: Dollar Dumped to 3-Week Lows as Wages Miss, Unemployment Rises

After President Trump spoiled “traders’ Christmas” last month with a now-infamous tweet implying that the May jobs report would be strong, market participants were happy to get back to their “normal” tradition of overanalyzing and excessively dissecting the volatile monthly jobs report at the moment of its release today. As...

US Dollar Index Erases Gains after Posting Almost 1-Year High

The US Dollar Index is looking more neutral as prices are still developing within the 93.80 support level and the 95.20 resistance barrier. It is worth mentioning that the price jumped to an almost fresh one-year high of 95.22 on June 28 after the bounce on the 93.80 support...

Dollar Rally Halts after a Solid Quarter, Stays Bullish on Trade Tensions

Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest one. Strength in oil price, with WTI hitting four-year high was a factor. Solid Canadian GDP and Business Outlook Survey also support a July BoC hike. Euro followed as the second strongest as markets cheered EU agreement on migration during the...

USD Index Trading Towards 93.15 Support

Nice and clear five waves on USD index from March lows are an indication that higher degree wave 3) is finished and a new corrective retracement can be underway. We are talking about wave 4) that can be already in play with its first leg A taking price lower....

USD Index Pushing into A Temporary Correction; Support at 93.14

On USD Index we see latest recovery from 93.14 as final leg of a bigger impulse that may have found a top at the 95.53 level. A suggestion that a temporary top has been found is intra-day weakness which can be part of a bigger retracement and can push...

USD: Coiling Below The Key 95.15 Level

FIFA has trumped forex so far in trade this week, with the major currencies consolidating in relatively tight ranges against one another. The US dollar is consolidating against its rivals so far today, gaining ground against the commodity dollars and pound sterling but losing ground against traditional safe havens...