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Dollar Firm as FOMC Awaited, Euro and Sterling Shaky ahead of GDP and PMI

After yesterday's strong rally, Dollar retreats mildly today as markets await FOMC decision. For the week, the greenback remains the strongest one. Canadian Dollar follows as the second strongest, riding on better than expected GDP data. Sterling, on the other hand, is trading as the weakest one, as weighed...

New Zealand unemployment rate dropped to lowest since 2008

New Zealand employment rose 0.6% qoq in Q1, in line with expectation. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, below expectation of 4.5%. That's also the fifth consecutive quarter of decline in unemployment rate, and it hit lowest level since December 2008. In addition, the underutilization rate dropped to 11.9%, down from...

Australian Dollar Steady after RBA Stands Pat, UK PMI Manufacturing to Watch

Australian dollar is steady after RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. Governor Philip Lowe continued to be confident on the economy. He noted in the accompanying statement that "the bank's central forecast for the Australian economy remains for growth to pick up, to average a...

New Zealand FM Robertson: We will stick to Budget Responsibility Rules and deliver surplus

New Zealand's Finance Minister Grant Robertson emphasized is his pre-budget speech today that the center-left coalition government will stick to the "Budget Responsibility Rules". He added that means Budget 2018 will deliver a surplus, and surpluses in subsequent years." Robertson added that ""we will reduce the level of net core...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: RBA to Hold Stance but Likely to Lower Growth Forecast

Week beginning 30 April 2018 RBA to hold stance but likely to lower growth forecast. RBA: policy decision, Governor Lowe speaks, Statement on Monetary Policy. Australia: dwelling approvals, house prices, private credit, trade balance. NZ: labour force survey, business confidence, building consents. China: Official NBS and Caixin PMIs. Euro...

US and UK GDP to Take Center Stage, BoJ Stands Pat

Dollar is trading mildly lower today but remains the overwhelmingly strongest one for the week. The greenback was, on the one hand, pushed higher overnight thanks to the steep post ECB selloff in Euro. Dollar index hit as high as 91.63 and continued to build up the case of...

New Zealand recorded first March trade deficit in 10 years

New Zealand trade balance unexpectedly show NZD -86m deficit in April, versus expectation of NZD 200m surplus. That was also the first March deficit 10 years since 2008. Goods exports rose 5.8%, or NZD 265m while imports rose 14%, or NZD 612m. From Australia, PPI rose 0.5% qoq, 1.7% Yoy...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Inflation Risks; Financial Conditions and Jobs All Raise Risks for RBA’s Outlook

Week beginning 23 April 2018 Inflation risks; financial conditions; and jobs all raise risks for RBA's outlook. Australia: CPI, trade prices, RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks, ANZAC day. NZ: trade balance, net migration. China: industrial profits. Euro Area: ECB policy decision. US: GDP, employment cost index. Flash PMIs. Key...

Sterling and Canadian Dollar Recover Losses, Markets Lack Dominant Theme

The major theme in the forex markets isn't too clear today. Sterling dips initially after retail sales missed expectation, but quickly recovered. Canadian dollar also pare back some of the post BoC decline, as lifted by strength in oil price. Australian Dollar gained earlier today but there is no...

House Of Lords Sinks PM May’s Plans, Wants Stronger Customs Union With EU

A vote in the UK's House of Lords last night defeated the Government's plan to leave the customs union with the EU. The House voted down the proposal 348 to 225. While this does not prevent the UK leaving, it does show some of the opposition that is building...

Australian Dollar Shrugs off Job Data Miss, Sterling Looks into Retail Sales

Commodity currencies are trading broadly higher today as led by Australian Dollar. Strong rebound in the Chinese stock markets is seen as factor helping the Aussie, as SSE is gaining more than 1% at the time of writing. Canadian Dollar is also recovering some of yesterday's post-BoC loss. Sterling,...

RBNZ Orr: Very benign inflation going forward without doubt

New Zealand CPI slowed notably to 1.1% yoy in Q1, down from prior quarter's 1.6%, meeting expectation. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in Radio New Zealand interview that he expected "very benign inflation going forward without doubt, as we've forecast". He added that "what really matters is the confidence and...

AUD/NZD in Focus ahead of Key Data from Antipodean Nations

This week’s key macro events are mostly out of the way. However, we still have important data coming from the Antipodean nations in the early hours of Thursday and from Canada on Friday. So, the focus is now going to turn to the commodity currencies. New Zealand will kick...

UK Wages Rise Less Than Forecast, Inflation Data Eyed

The U.S. dollar was seen trading on firmer ground yesterday amid a busy trading day. Investor appetite was seen improving across the board. Economic data from the UK showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, which was better than the expected 4.3% level. Wage growth was however subdued, rising...

Europe Awaits Consumer Price Data

At 08:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) will be released and is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) is expected at 2.5% from 2.4% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 0.3% from 0.4% prior. Producer Price Index –...

New Zealand Inflation Expected to Fall to Lower Target Band as Kiwi Stalls at $0.74

Quarterly inflation numbers out of New Zealand on Thursday are expected to show the country’s CPI rate moving back towards the lower end of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target band. The data (due at 22:45 GMT on Wednesday) would likely reaffirm expectations that the RBNZ will be...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: RBA Financial Stability Review – Global Risks Dominate

Week beginning 16 April 2018 RBA Financial Stability Review - global risks dominate. Australia: Westpac-MI leading index, RBA minutes, employment. NZ: CPI, house sales. China: GDP. Euro Area: consumer confidence, ZEW survey. US: retail sales, Federal Reserve Beige Book. Canada: BoC decision Key economic & financial forecasts. Information contained in...

Australian Dollar Higher after China Data, EUR/AUD in Focus

Australian dollar strengthens broadly in Asia session as lifted mildly by China's trade data. The Aussie is also among the strongest ones for the week, together with Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Euro suffered some selloff overnight, in particular against, Sterling. But the common currency quickly found footing...

New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI: Weak spot in production

New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) dropped -1.1 to 52.2 in March. That's also the second consecutive decline in 2018 even though it still signaled expansion. BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard: "On a positive note, the proportion of positive comments in March (55.1%) picked up from...

Chinese President Xi Soothes Market Worries

With US Producer Prices data on the way this afternoon, and predicted to be largely as expected, the morning session will be dominated by central bankers, as FOMC Member Kaplan and MPC Member Haldane are due to make separate speeches. The US/China Trade War has been dominating headlines, with...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Gradual Decline in the AUD Expected to Continue through 2018

Week beginning 9 April 2018 Gradual decline in the AUD expected to continue through 2018 as USD stabilises; commodity prices fall; and interest margins widen. RBA: Governor Lowe speaks, Financial Stability Review. Australia: Westpac-MI consumer sentiment, housing finance. NZ: retail card spending, house sales and prices. China: President Xi...

China Launches Counter Tariffs On 128 US Products

General Trend: Trading remains light amid the last day of Easter holiday Major currencies little changed, while Korean Won makes multi-year high S&P futures slightly lower ahead of US open after long holiday weekend China official PMI and Caixin both remain in expansion Japan Q1 Tankan survey shows first...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: RBA on Hold; Economic & Financial Developments in 2018 Further Support Steady Rates in Australia

Week beginning 2 April 2018 RBA on hold; economic and financial developments further support steady rates in Australia. Australia: RBA decision, retail sales, dwelling approvals, trade balance, house prices. NZ: QVNZ house prices. China: Caixin PMIs. Euro Area: CPI, unemployment rate. US: nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs. Key economic &...

Volatility Picks Up As USD Strengthens Into Quarter End

With US Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index on the way later today, as well as US Jobless data, traders will be watching the USD, which is showing strength as we approach the last trading days of March. USDJPY was up to 107.00 at one point overnight, helped by...

Japan Stands Its Ground That It Will Not Hold Trade Negotiation Talks

General Trend: Asian equities trade mixed after largely negative US session Foreigners net sell Japan equities for 5th straight week: There were record sales in the most recent week Trade remains in focus: Conflicting press reports regarding whether China is eyeing import curbs on US soybeans As expected, North...

New Zealand building consents rose 5.7% mom in Feb

New Zealand building consents rose 5.7% mom in February verusus 0.0% mom in January. Key facts from noted in the release: The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 5.7%. In the year ended February 2018, 31,245 new dwellings were consented, up 3.6%. The annual value of building work...

Risk On Again as Stocks Futures Rebound on Facebook, Yen and Swiss Franc Dive

The pattern of risk on/risk off continues today. After opening lower, European indices pare back much losses with FTSE now back in black at the time of writing. US futures also point to slightly higher open. Tech stocks, who were the main reason of yesterday's selloff, recover mildly. Facebook's...

Risk Aversion Has Stamina As Tech Sector Quivers

Wednesday March 28: Five things the markets are talking about Global equities trade on the back foot, with tech and mining names leading the charge lower. Yesterday stateside, U.S tech shares suffered their worst drop in over a month on concerns over trade tensions, motivated by President Trump's protectionists' moves. President Trumps...

Euro Stays Strong after Volatility in Thin Holiday Markets

There was some volatility seen yesterday in the forex markets. But as dusts settled, Euro is staying as the strongest one for the week, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Sterling. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar are trading as the weakest one, followed not too far away...

New Zealand business confidence: Economy is certainly not crawling, but it’s hardly gliding along

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -20 in March, down from -19. That means a net 20% of businesses are pessimistic about the year ahead. Highlights from the release: Headline business confidence and firms' views of their own activity have trodden water in March, both little changed from the...