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USDTRY Sets Another Record High But Rally Could be Overstretched

USDTRY hit a new all-time high of 5.4243 yesterday before prices pulled back a little today. The upside momentum had eased between May and July but started to gain traction again during August. Momentum indicators are holding firmly in the bullish zone but warn of a possible overextended rally. The...

Cannot Keep the ‘Big’ Dollar Down

The European and Asian sessions were happy to book ‘long’ dollar profits, but North America has decided to renew their acquaintance with the dollar bulls. A lack of major economic data releases and a stabilizing Chinese yuan overnight provided a temporary reprieve for risk assets and EM currencies. Another strong JOLTS...

Dollar Rally Takes A Time Out

Tuesday August 7: Five things the markets are talking about Most global equities found traction overnight as earnings season continues, helping support investor sentiment against a backdrop of trade worries and geopolitical concerns. The trend for a rising U.S dollar is taking a pause, with the dollar edging lower against G10...

USDTRY Outlook: Break Above Psychological 5.00 Barrier Could Extend Towards 5.20 Zone On Weak Turkey’s CPI Data

The USDTRY pair rallies in uncharted territory after strong rally on Wednesday eventually broke above psychological 5.00 barrier and extended higher on Thursday. Lira was weakened significantly after last month’s CBRT action and entered free fall on US sanctions on Turkey. Threats of further sanctions that could sour US/Turkey relations keep...

Trump-Juncker Meeting In Focus, Lira Crumbles

Asian stocks have commenced on a positive note this morning, as strong US corporate earnings and optimism over China boosting fiscal support for its economy rekindled risk appetite. European markets could benefit from the risk-on sentiment; however, gains may be limited as investors adopt a guarded approach ahead of a...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Core bonds traded mixed today with German Bunds hovering near opening levels while the US Note future extends technically-induced losses. Bunds initially lost ground as well on stronger-than-expected German PMI’s. However, the EMU composite measure eventually disappointed somewhat. Details showed that the tariffs (threat) starts disrupting supply chains and...

EUR Treads Water, CBT To Liftrates

EUR struggles to hold gains During the Asian session, the US dollar extended yesterday’s gains but quickly lost its advance as risk sentiment continued to improve. After sliding to $1.1655, the single currency bounced back towards the 1.17 threshold. It is going to be a big week for the single...

TRY Thumped After Erdogan Win

Monday June 25: Five things the markets are talking about Global stocks remain under pressure, as investors continues to analyse the impact of a trade spat between the world's two largest economies – U.S and China. Markets are beginning to get very nervous by the prospect of a full-blown trade war,...

US-China Trade War Builds

US-China trade war heats up Tensions escalated another notch over the weekend as the Trump administration undertook new retaliatory measures against China. After aiming at aluminium and steel products, then extending the tariffs to a broad range of Chinese products, the White House announced a new set of measures aiming...

Emerging Markets Unexpectedly Benefit From Upbeat Federal Reserve

Despite the Federal Reserve coming across much more upbeat than expected after raising US interest rates for the second time in 2018, some softness in the Dollar following the decision has provided a short-term boost to many different emerging market currencies. In a surprising move, traders appear to be taking...

Dollar Waits for Fed Rate Decision, Lira Crumbles

The major event risk across financial markets today will be the Federal Reserve policy meeting, which is widely expected to conclude with interest rates being hiked by 25 basis points. With a rate hike in June considered a done deal, investors may be more concerned with the economic projections and...

USDTRY Outlook: Extends Recovery, Forming A Higher Base At 4.45 Zone

The USDTRY extends recovery from post-CBRT low at 4.4507, as lira ran out of steam after being boosted by central bank’s rate hike last week. Initial signal of formation of higher base at 4.45 zone is generating after lira failed to break key obstacle at 4.4473 (30 May low) on...

USDTRY Outlook: The CBRT Rate Decision Is The Key Event For Turkish Lira Today

The USDTRY holds in tight range on Thursday and awaiting key event today, the CBRT rate decision, due at 11:00 GMT. The central bank is expected to hike rates in order to fight rising inflation, with expectations holding between 50 and 100bps increase, following 300bps hike in an unscheduled meeting...

USDTRY Outlook: Rate Hike Provided Temporary Relief But Short-Term Future Could Be Turbulent

The USDTRY bounced from post-CBRT low at 4.5119 but upside attempts were repeatedly capped at 4.80 zone signaling that the rate hike two days ago managed to reduce the pace of lira's fall which approached psychological 5.00 barrier, hours before the central bank's action on Wednesday. Rate hike helped...

USD/TRY 4H Chart: Review After Turbulence

The USD/TRY pair has been mostly affected by the fundamentally economical, damaging reforms of the Turkish government. Moreover, recent events in the Turkish bond market have massively increased volatility. However, rather incredibly the currency rates sudden decline began in consistency with the long term ascending channel pattern, which represents the...

USDTRY Touches New All-Time High, Strong Bullish Bias Remains In Place

USDTRY surged to break yet another all-time high on Wednesday, at 4.9270, before it pulled back somewhat towards the 4.8500 area. The pair is set to complete its fourth straight week of advances, and while it may correct slightly lower in the next days since the latest up-move seems...

Turkish Lira Collapse Continues

Wednesday May 23: Five things the markets are talking about Geopolitical risks from Turkey to N. Korea, from China to Italy, have pressured global equities in overnight trade. U.S Treasuries, along with the ‘mighty’ dollar have found support, while crude oil prices dropped along with most commodities. Yesterday, U.S President Donald...

Another Turkish Lira Flash Crash

Another Turkish Lira flash crash A busy start to the session dealing with yet another mini TRY flash crash as the bad Lira news continues to compound. Otherwise, global Forex and fixed income markets remain in neutral overnight and predictably focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes The Turkish Lira meltdown. As...

Turkish Lira Hit New Historical Low And May Fall Further If CBRT Doesn’t Hike

The USDTRY hit new record high at 4.5643 in early trading on Monday, extending steep upleg from 3.7153 (2018 low), as the pair advanced nearly 19% since the beginning of the year. nother easy break through psychological barrier (4.50 in this case) signals that there are very little obstacles for...

Is There an End in Sight to the Turkish Lira’s Freefall?

The Turkish lira has continued to plummet so far in 2018, sinking to fresh all-time lows as a worrisome cocktail of economic developments diminished demand for Turkish assets. While a potential rate hike by the central bank may help to ease the selling pressure or even trigger a short-term...

USDTRY – Break Of 4.50 Barrier Would Spark Further Bullish Acceleration

The USDTRY pair continues to move in uncharted territory and hit new record highs on Wednesday, after narrow consolidation preceded fresh acceleration higher. Bulls are coming closer to psychological 4.50 barrier, violation of which looks very likely and would spark fresh bullish acceleration after triggering a number of stops,...

Selling Pressure In Emerging Market Currencies Accelerates Following Latest Lira Decline

Emerging market currencies across the globe are coming under renewed selling pressure during trading this week. The exact catalyst behind why the emerging market currencies continue to be plagued by selling momentum is a difficult one to determine, although the latest indications suggest that the motivator could now be beyondcentral...

Turkish Lira Bounces From New Record Low On Signals The CBRT May Take An Extraordinary Action

The Turkish lira hit new record low at 4.3741 against US dollar on Wednesday, in fresh extension after decision of US President Trump to pull the US from international nuclear deal with Iran boosted dollar. Gains proved to be short lived as lira subsequently bounced on comments that Turkish...

USDTRY Hit New All-Time High, Psychological Barrier At 4.30 In Immediate Focus

The USDTRY pair remains in steep ascend which extends into fifth straight day and hit new all-time high at 4.2897 on Friday. Strong fall of lira is unlikely to stop soon as bears took out easily round-figure barriers (4.20/ / 4.25) which usually act as strong obstacles. In addition,...

Carney Strikes Down Hawks, Lira Trades Sideways

Buying sentiment towards the British Pound deteriorated sharply yesterday, after dovish comments from Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney heavily diluted expectations of an interest rate hike in May. Carney’s cautious tone and his acknowledgement of recent “mixed” economic data, planted a seed of doubt among investors that the central...

EURTRY Skyrockets to Fresh All-Time High of 5.1931

EURTRY reached another all-time high of 5.1931 today, posting the ninth consecutive bullish day. Over the last couple of days, the pair is posting new highs with aggressive mode and is trading well above its moving averages. The bullish picture in the medium-term is further supported by the MACD,...

USDTRY Hits New Record Highs On News That CB Is Preparing Plan To Lower Interest R

The Turkish lira hit new record high at 4.0657 on Friday, in extension of previous day's strong fall, with signals that lira could weaken further. Fears among investors rose after news that Turkish government works on measures to lower interest rates, with tax cuts also being in the agenda....

USDTRY Extends Recovery But Lower Inflation In Turkey Could Slow Bulls

The USDTRY holds in a steady recovery from 3.9338 (29 Mar low, posted after sharp fall) which extends into third straight day and retraced so far 61.8% of 4.0150/3.9338 dip. Recovery rally returned above rising 10SMA (currently at 3.9622 and marking initial support) which was bullish signal, however, weakening momentum...

USDTRY – Bulls Probe Above 4.00 Again After Shallow Correction

The USDTRY moved higher after shallow correction from new all-time high was contained by rising daily Tenkan-sen at 3.9550 zone. Fresh acceleration higher probes above psychological 4.00 barrier and looks for retest of last week's record high at 4.0359, with scope for further advance on monthly close above previous...

Technical Outlook: USDTRY – Hit New Record High On Break Above Psychological 4.00 Barrier

As signaled in my previous reports, the USDTRY pair regained its previous high at 3.9814 and surged through psychological 4.00 barrier into uncharted territory, hitting new record high at 4.0359 on Friday. There were several factors that prompted lira’s most recent bearish acceleration, which signals that the fall is not...