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Market Picture

The crypto market remains in prolonged consolidation as it approaches the $3 trillion level, losing about 0.5% over the past day. For the past five days, the market has fluctuated in a very narrow range, with some tendency towards shallower declines. Still, it has been unable to exceed its 200-day moving average, which is now passing through $3.01 trillion. A global positive is needed for a breakout, but it would open the way to the $3.50 trillion area.

Bitcoin is hovering near $94,500, forcing the entire cryptocurrency market to watch for the next move. Such long consolidations usually accumulate strength for further movement. The next major trigger is likely to be Friday’s labour market data.

Ethereum continues to struggle with its downtrend, hovering around the $1,800 for the past seven days, right where the 50-day moving average and the resistance line of the descending channel converge.

An upward momentum would be an important positive signal, but theoretically, under these conditions, the baseline scenario is a downward reversal.

News Background

Presto Research predicts that Bitcoin will reach $210,000 by the end of this year. Growing institutional interest and rising global liquidity will be the primary drivers behind its price increase.

Bitwise believes that Bitcoin’s recent rise above $94,000 occurred with minimal participation from retail investors. The current rally has been initiated by institutional investors, financial advisors, corporations, and even governments. The list of investors buying BTC is expanding.

The growing share of bitcoins purchased at lower prices indicates that the rally is approaching a ‘historic level of euphoria,’ according to Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

Crypto Caesar analyst believes that breaking through the psychological level of $100,000 will pave the way for Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the range of $110,000-115,000.

Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.4% qoq in Q1, doubling market expectations of 0.2% and signaling a stronger-than-anticipated start to the year. Across the broader EU, GDP rose by 0.3% qoq.

On a year-on-year basis, seasonally adjusted GDP grew 1.2% in the Eurozone and 1.4% in the EU, matching growth rates from the previous quarter.

Ireland led the regional performance with a sharp 3.2% quarterly increase, followed by Spain and Lithuania with 0.6% growth. Hungary was the only member state to post a quarterly contraction, down -0.2%.

Full Eurozone GDP release here.

The USD/JPY pair is rising cautiously for a second consecutive day, reaching 142.48, as a string of underwhelming economic figures from Japan weighs on market sentiment.

Key factors driving USD/JPY Movement

March’s economic data revealed a larger-than-expected contraction in industrial production, while retail sales growth also fell short of forecasts. Collectively, these indicators point to potential challenges for Japan’s economy.

Market focus now shifts to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5%.

The BoJ’s commentary will likely remain cautious as policymakers assess the potential fallout from new US tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy.

In a recent development, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Trump administration has extensively discussed a potential trade agreement with Japan – a sign that bilateral tensions may be easing.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has broken below the 142.75 level and continues to decline towards 141.56. This move is considered a correction within the broader upward trend. Once this correction ends, a new bullish wave towards 144.00 may begin. A breakout above 144.00 could pave the way for a further rise towards the local target of 146.40. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and sloping decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY is consolidating around the 142.30 level. A rise towards 142.75 is possible today, followed by a decline to 141.67, which marks a local target for the corrective move. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and preparing to reverse towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid a lacklustre economic performance while traders await fresh cues from the BoJ. While a technical rebound appears likely after the correction, the pair’s near-term trajectory will hinge on trade developments and US tariff policy.

• USD/JPY tiptoes higher; forms encouraging candlestick pattern
• A slew of obstacles still lie ahead; bullish outlook above 147.50

USDJPY attempted a modest recovery after dipping to 141.95 early in the week. While Tuesday’s bullish move was limited, the formation of a small, inverted hammer candlestick suggests potential for upward momentum. Confirmation, however, would require a solid green candlestick to follow.

The upward trajectory in the RSI and MACD keeps hopes for a rebound alive as investors await the release of US Q1 GDP growth and core PCE data later today. On the other hand, the falling stochastics undermine the strength of any potential bullish action, while the negative slope in the exponential moving averages (EMAs) lends further support to the prevailing downtrend.

Immediate resistance lies at the 143.00 mark, followed by the 20-day EMA and the 144.23–145.35 constraining zone. A break higher could open the door to the 50-day EMA and the tentative resistance trendline near 147.50 – also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 downtrend.

On the downside, a close below 142.20 could drag the pair back toward 139.50–140.00. A deeper decline could test support at 137.70–138.50, and potentially 137.20, a break of which could clear the way to 132.85.

In summary, while USDJPY bulls remain cautiously active, a confirmed bullish outlook hinges on a decisive move above 147.50.

The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs are showing moderate gains amid a consolidation of market expectations ahead of the release of crucial macroeconomic indicators. Tomorrow, investor focus will shift to data on inflation, consumer spending trends, and manufacturing sector activity—figures that could significantly reshape expectations for monetary policy in the world's leading economies. Heightened speculative activity ahead of these releases is contributing to increased market volatility and may trigger a retest of local highs and lows in major currency pairs.

GBP/USD

At the start of the trading week, GBP/USD buyers managed to test the 2024 highs near 1.3440. A pullback from last year’s peak has resulted in the formation of a bearish “Harami” candlestick pattern on the daily chart. If the pair fails to hold above the 1.3370–1.3340 range, a downward correction may unfold towards the 1.3200–1.3100 zone. Conversely, a break above 1.3440 could reignite bullish momentum.

The following events may influence the price dynamics of GBP/USD:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+2): 3-year Gilt auction, United Kingdom
• Today at 15:15 (GMT+2): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, United States
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US GDP data
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+2): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index

EUR/USD

Following a sharp rally in early April, EUR/USD has entered a sideways range between 1.1500 and 1.1300. Technical analysis suggests a possible move towards the lower boundary of this range. A break below 1.1300 could trigger a deeper bearish correction toward the 1.1109–1.1120 area. On the other hand, a bounce from current levels may encourage a renewed test of the 1.1500–1.1580 zone.

Key economic data that could affect EUR/USD in upcoming sessions include:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+2): Eurozone GDP
• Today at 13:00 (GMT+2): Italy Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Today at 14:00 (GMT+2): Spain Business Confidence Index
• Today at 15:00 (GMT+2): Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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As the XBR/USD chart shows:

→ at the beginning of April, Brent crude was trading above $71 per barrel;

→ this morning, on the last day of the month, the price has fallen below $60.

The overall decline may reach 16% — the worst monthly performance since November 2021.

Why Is Oil Falling?

The primary driver behind the sharp drop in oil prices earlier this month was the introduction of new US tariffs, particularly targeting China and the EU. This raised concerns that a potential global trade war could slow economic growth and, in turn, reduce global oil demand.

According to a Reuters poll, the tariffs imposed by Trump have made a global recession in 2025 a realistic risk.

In addition, growing attention is being paid to OPEC+ and its plans to increase oil production. The next meeting is scheduled for 5 May.

Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart

Oil price fluctuations in 2025 have formed a descending channel (highlighted in red), with lower highs and lower lows reflecting continued bearish sentiment.

Bulls may hope for support to emerge around the $58.85 level, as:

→ this has acted as support before (as indicated by arrows);

→ this level aligns with the lower boundary of a local upward trend (shown in blue), which formed after news broke that Trump had postponed the implementation of some tariffs — triggering a sharp rebound in oil prices from the 9 April low.

Nevertheless, the broader structure remains bearish: the rise towards point C appears to be a corrective recovery following the impulse drop from A to B. Given the potential impact of upcoming news — including statements from the White House and OPEC+ decisions — a bearish breakout below the blue channel cannot be ruled out.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer slumped to 97.1 in April, down sharply from 103.9 and well below the expected 102.0, marking its first drop below the medium-term average this year.

The KOF Swiss Economic Institute noted that the outlook for the Swiss economy is now “considerably subdued,” as broad-based weakness weighed on the indicator.

According to KOF, the sharp deterioration was primarily driven by a significant setback in manufacturing sentiment, with additional pressure seen across the hospitality and broader services sectors. Financial and insurance services were the only areas showing relative stability.

Full Swiss KOF release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1362; (P) 1.1394; (R1) 1.1418; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.1306 will extend the correction from 1.1572. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.1572 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0792) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3377; (P) 1.3411; (R1) 1.3440; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside at this point. Firm break of 1.3433 key resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3422 from 1.3232 at 1.3674. However, break of 1.3232 support will indicate rejection from 1.3433, and bring deeper decline back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2993) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could either be resuming the up trend, or the second leg of a consolidation pattern. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8201; (P) 0.8232; (R1) 0.8271; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038 short term bottom. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8783) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.