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Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.7277 to 0.7076 from 0.7200 at 0.699 will target 161.8% projection at 0.6875. On the upside, above 0.7076 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

USD/CAD's rally resumed by breaking through 1.3967 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. On the downside, below 1.3897 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point. Risk stays mildly on the downside as long as 215.59 resistance holds. Below 212.90 will target 210.43/211.23 support zone. However, firm break of 215.59 will resume the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.77) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Risks stay mildly on the downside as long as 186.18 resistance holds. Below 183.95 will bring retest of 182.01 support first. However, firm break of 186.18 will resume the rebound from 182.01 to retest 187.93 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.95) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

EUR/GBP is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8788 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.6108 is in progress and should target 161.8% projection of 1.6108 to 1.6381 from 1.6186 at 1.6628 next. On the downside, below 1.6480 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral again with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen below 0.9234 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 0.9155 support holds. Above 0.9234 will bring retest of 0.9264 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) should still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.

Brent oil price remains within a range between $90.00 and $95.00 for the fifth consecutive day despite renewed tensions in the Middle East and much stronger than expected draw in US crude inventories, as markets still do not see significant threat from the overall situation.

Although the price repeatedly jumped (Wed / Thu) on fire exchange between US and Iran, gains were limited, with today’s quick reversal (price dropped almost $4) suggesting that markets look for stronger signal from geopolitical side to define fresh direction.

Also, US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week (almost identical drop to the previous week’s 7.9 million barrels) and strongly overshot forecasts for 3 million barrels draw, as the US continues to use reserves and strategic reserves to cover up shortage in supply, caused by partial / total close of strait of Hormuz, key route for transport of oil from several Gulf countries that resulted in the lowest oil output from OPEC members in over two decades.

Technical picture remains predominantly bearish on daily chart (negative momentum studies / MAs in mixed setup) with near-term price action mainly holding below the base of thick daily Ichimoku cloud, which now acts as solid resistance (cracked several times but without sustained break higher) that keeps upper breakpoints at $99.00 and $100.00 out of reach.

Near-term bias is expected to remain with bears while cloud base limits recovery attempts.

On the other hand, the base has been formed at $90.00 zone following repeated strong rejection here and renewed attacks are likely to face increased headwinds, but firm break would signal continuation of larger downtrend from $120 zone.

Res: 94.32; 95.50; 97.41; 98.41
Sup: 91.71; 90.76; 90.00; 89.58

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by 0.9% to $2.15 trillion over the past 24 hours, with gains broadly distributed among the most popular altcoins. In the short term, this looks more like a technical rebound within a broader consolidation near the 200-week moving average than a full-fledged reversal. Nevertheless, relatively small coins such as SushiSwap, Cosmos, and Official Trump have led this rebound, gaining 6%, 5%, and 4.6%, respectively. The underperformers were Aptos (-3.2%), Algorand (-2%), and Zcash (-1.6%).

Bitcoin is trading on the cusp of $63K, which is below the consolidation zone seen in the early months of this year. This positioning points to the bears’ formidable strength. On the other hand, the market did not enter a nosedive, having dipped below the previous support line while avoiding the cascading spiral of stop-loss orders being triggered, as was the case last October or February. Bitcoin has also changed its reaction to sell-offs in risky assets, effectively holding and building positions during the sell-off in tech stocks.

News Background

Despite the short-term rebound, market structure and on-chain data do not yet confirm the formation of a sustained uptrend, according to CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further declines, as a solid bottom has yet to be established, according to Wintermute. There is still insufficient demand from large investors for the leading cryptocurrency, amid capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitwise believes that Bitcoin’s recent decline reflects broader trends in financial markets and is not solely attributable to issues within the crypto industry. BTC may react to changes in global financial market conditions sooner than traditional assets.

Investor sentiment towards Ethereum has turned sharply negative on social media, suggesting an impending trend reversal, Santiment points out. In the past, such periods of peak fear and uncertainty have often preceded an asset’s rise.

The FxPro Analyst Team

USD/JPY rose to 160.52 on Thursday, marking its highest level since July 2024. The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure despite a notable acceleration in Japan’s producer price inflation.

According to the latest data, Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 6.1% year-on-year in May, up from a revised 5.3% in April. The figure exceeded market expectations of 5.5% and reached its highest level in three years. Rising energy costs and the yen’s weakness remain the primary drivers of producer price growth.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as early as its next policy meeting. Market participants increasingly believe the central bank will need to respond to mounting inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East and the continued depreciation of the Japanese currency.

Investor attention is also focused on comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, with markets seeking clearer signals on the future direction of monetary policy. Investors are already pricing in the possibility of another rate increase in September and are not ruling out an additional move in December.

Despite these expectations, the yen remains under pressure. The strength of the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance continue to outweigh support from potential Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 160.30 level and is developing an upward move towards 160.85. This target is expected to be reached today, followed by a corrective pullback towards 160.30. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is building an upward structure towards 160.85. A correction towards 160.30 may follow before another advance towards 160.90, with scope for the broader trend to extend to 162.00.

The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line remains above the 50 level and is moving towards 80, suggesting that upside momentum is likely to persist in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to benefit from a strong US dollar and expectations of prolonged Federal Reserve policy tightness, despite growing speculation of further Bank of Japan rate increases. While the pair remains firmly bullish, its approach to new multi-year highs may increase market sensitivity to any signs of intervention or policy shifts from Japanese authorities.