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Commodity-linked currencies are trading near key levels, showing restrained price action as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach. The fundamental backdrop is shaped by expectations surrounding the release of Australia’s inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, followed by a press conference. These events are viewed as key drivers for the respective currencies and could significantly shift the balance of power in the market.

Additional attention is focused on global factors, including US statistics (data on economic activity and oil inventories), as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran, which continues to influence overall risk sentiment.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is trading near its yearly high around 0.7220. This level is attracting heightened attention, as the pair has not traded above it for three years, increasing its significance as a supply zone. In the event of strong inflation data, a breakout with further upside is possible, whereas weaker figures could trigger a pullback and a return to the 0.7100–0.7180 range.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 16:00 (GMT+3): S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price Index (US), not seasonally adjusted
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US CB Consumer Confidence Index
• tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Consumer Price Index

USD/CAD

The recovery in USD/CAD observed last week has lost momentum following a failed attempt to consolidate above 1.3700. Yesterday, the April low was updated, but the price found support at 1.3600 and rebounded. Technical analysis of USD/CAD points to the possibility of a decline towards 1.3540–1.3520 if the pair consolidates below 1.3600. The bearish scenario would be invalidated after a confident move and hold above 1.3700.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US New Home Construction (housing starts)
• tomorrow at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• tomorrow at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference

Overall, the market is in a waiting phase, where key levels in AUD/USD and USD/CAD serve as decision points. Upcoming macroeconomic events — including Australia’s CPI, the Bank of Canada’s decision, and US data — will determine the next direction: either continuation of current trends with breakouts, or a return to more subdued, range-bound dynamics.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.45; (P) 215.75; (R1) 216.06; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation pattern from 215.89 is extending with another dip. Further rise is expected as long as 213.29 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 205.25) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.60; (P) 186.86; (R1) 187.11; More...

EUR/JPY dips mildly today as consolidation from 187.93 extends. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend. However, further break of 185.87 will bring deeper fall to 184.75 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8652; (P) 0.8664; (R1) 0.8673; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point, and more consolidations could be seen. Further fall is expected with 0.8685 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8652 will resume the fall from 0.8740 to retest 0.8610 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8685 will dampen the bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8740 again.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6275; (P) 1.6341; (R1) 1.6380; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the downside with break of 1.6340 temporary low. Fall from 1.6842 should target a retest on 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend fro 1.8554. On the upside, above 1.6418 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7129) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9197; (P) 0.9208; (R1) 0.9219; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral first and consolidations from 0.9264 could extend. But still, further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9277) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3588; (P) 1.3636; (R1) 1.3674; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3965 should target a retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3713 resistance holds, in case of recovery

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7145; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7214; More...

AUD/USD is extending consolidations below 0.7221 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.7221 will extend larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, break of 0.7076 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1691; (P) 1.1724; (R1) 1.1755; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.1848. Further rally is expected with 1.1662 support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1530). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3500; (P) 1.3539; (R1) 1.3572; More...

GBP/USD is extending consolidations from 1.3598 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3446 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3446 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).