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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3377; (P) 1.3411; (R1) 1.3440; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside at this point. Firm break of 1.3433 key resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3422 from 1.3232 at 1.3674. However, break of 1.3232 support will indicate rejection from 1.3433, and bring deeper decline back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2993) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could either be resuming the up trend, or the second leg of a consolidation pattern. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8201; (P) 0.8232; (R1) 0.8271; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038 short term bottom. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8783) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.92; (P) 142.34; (R1) 142.77; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 144.02 will resume the rebound from 139.87. But ear term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 holds. On the downside, firm break of 142.26 will argue that the recovery from 139.87 short term bottom has completed as a corrective move. Retest of 139.87 should then be seen next in this case.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6357; (P) 0.6403; (R1) 0.6431; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 0.6448 will resume the rebound from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6343 support will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6312) and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6440) holds, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3805; (P) 1.3838; (R1) 1.3868; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3903 minor resistance will extend the rebound from 1.3780. But upside should be limited by 1.4150 support turned resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3780 at 1.4166). On the downside, firm break of 1.3780 short term bottom will resume the whole fall from 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9359; (P) 0.9384; (R1) 0.9405; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. Break of 0.9445 will resume the rebound towards 0.9660 resistance. However, on the downside, break of 0.9336 will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8482; (P) 0.8497; (R1) 0.8509; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.8737 is in progress for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8450). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.8221 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish. On the upside, though, break of 0.8622 resistance will bring retest of 0.8737.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7729; (P) 1.7809; (R1) 1.7915; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, above 1.8014 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.8554 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 1.7750 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7399) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.76; (P) 162.16; (R1) 162.43; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 164.16 will resume whole rise from 154.77. Next target will be 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. However, break of 158.27 will bring deeper fall back to 154.40/77 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Markets

The US released a first batch of economic data yesterday. Both JOLTS (7.19mn March vs 7.48mn in February) and Conference Board consumer confidence (April) fell short of expectations. The latter saw a particular deterioration in the forward looking component, which tumbled to the lowest since 2011. Given the survey’s skew to the employment and income situation, the numbers are essentially a partial update of the labour market ahead of Friday’s payrolls. It explains the market reaction, consisting of a 3.4-4.7 bps yield drop across the US curve, wiping out earlier gains. There was a slight outperformance at the front as markets raised Fed easing bets to just shy of 100 bps for the year. President Trump would approve. He lashed out at Fed chair Powell again during an event to mark his 100th day in office. He also touted his tariff policy, saying it would bring growth and manufacturing back to the US. Net daily changes for Bund yields varied between -0.6 bps (2-yr) to -2.4 bps (10-yr). The dollar held a minor advantage in technically insignificant trading. EUR/USD oscillated around 1.14, the trade-weighted dollar index held north of 99. Sterling’s attack at the EUR/GBP 0.85 level is unrelenting but could soon face tough resistance around the 0.8474 area in case of a break. The economic calendar today goes straight into highest gear with GDP numbers in France this morning (printed in line with expectations), Germany and the euro area (expected at 0.2% q/q, 1.1% y/y). Those member states also release April inflation numbers. The ADP job report is due in the US and could show employment growth easing from 155k to 115k. Q1 GDP growth is also on tap. Heavy import frontloading ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement weighs on the expected headline print (-0.2% q/q annualized). We are therefore focused at the contribution coming from consumer and capital spending. US price deflators published simultaneously should confirm the Fed’s limited scope to cut rates in the near term – as long as the labour market remains resilient. A unidirectional market reaction against the backdrop of such a wide data range is not obvious. We’re instead looking for some bottoming out and consolidation in core bond yields, especially in Europe where we think markets went ahead of themselves. EUR/USD & DXY are locked in a stalemate in the 1.14 & 98-100 area.

News & Views

Australian Q1 inflation was a bit mixed but didn’t change market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue with a second 25 bps rate cut at the May 19-20 meeting. Headline inflation printed 0.9% Q/Q (from 0.2% Q/Q). Y/Y measures unexpectedly stayed unchanged at 2.4%. The trimmed mean measure rose sightly more than expected from 0.5% Q/Q to 0.7% Q/Q. Even so, the Y/Y figure slowed from 3.3% to 2.9%, the lowest since 2021Q4. It also bring this inflation measure back within the 2-3% RBA inflation target range. Annual services inflation was 3.7% in the March quarter, down from 4.3% in the December quarter and the slowest since the June 2022 quarter. The Aussie dollar this morning rises modestly to AUD/USD 0.6415, but stays in consolidation modus after recent rebound against a broadly weaker dollar.

The central bank of Hungary (MNB) as expected yesterday left its policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. A careful and patient approach to monetary policy remains necessary due to risks to the inflation environment as well as trade policy and geopolitical tensions, it said. For now maintaining tight monetary conditions is warranted. The MNB expects inflation to cool further in April after a decline to 4.7% in March. From there it is expected to remain near the upper bound of the central bank tolerance band in the coming months. Profit margin caps introduced by the authorities are expected to moderate inflation, as will lower energy prices. However, upside risks to inflation could intensify in the event of increases in tariff rates. Rising uncertainty in international financial markets also increases risk aversion towards Hungarian assets, which also poses a risk of higher inflation. Despite current MNB cautious wait-and-see attitude markets still expect the MNB to cut interest rate further in 2025H2. The forint hardly reacted and maintained recent gains (EUR/HUF 404.35).