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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

ActionForex

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with breach of 159.99. Further rise would be seen to retest 160.71. Strong resistance shold be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, break of 159.08 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 158.56) and below.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.55) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD is still bounded in range trading. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.3508 will extend the rebound from 1.3300 to 1.3657 resistance first. On the downside, below 1.3300 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3158 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.7926 but retreated sharply from there. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.7926 will resume the rebound from 0.7760 to retest 0.8041. On the downside, below 0.7795 will bring deeper fall to 0.7760 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8028) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Outlook will remain mildly bullish as long as 0.7076 support holds. Firm break of 0.7277 will resume larger up trend. However, sustained break of 0.7076 will bring deeper fall back towards 0.6832 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

USD/CAD's rise from 1.3549 resumed by breaking through 1.3868 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3965 resistance next. Further rally will remains in favor as long as 1.3769 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 213.29 support holds. Above 215.50 will resume the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. Strong resistance should be seen there to cap upside, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.56) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 184.42 support holds. Above 186.18 will extend the rebound from 182.01. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 182.01 to 185.44 from 184.42 at 186.53 will pave the way to 100% projection at 187.85.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 was steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.78) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Rise from 1.6108 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.6125. Above 1.6381 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6842 resistance. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6956) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back to 0.8788 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

EUR/CHF's strong break of 0.9169 resistance suggests that fall from 0.9264 has completed as a correction at 0.9094. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9264 first. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. On the downside, break of 0.9137 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) should still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.