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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9059; (P) 0.9083; (R1) 0.9122; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and consolidation from 0.9200 could extend further. But overall outlook stays bullish with 0.8956/64 support zone intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9200/9223 will resume the whole rally from 0.8374 and carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained break of 0.8964 will be a sign of reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4262; (P) 1.4304; (R1) 1.4333; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Strong support is expected from 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4267), to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4501 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4791 short term top. However, firm break of 1.4260 will indicate that deeper correction is underway, and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6251; (P) 0.6275; (R1) 0.6296; More...

AUD/USD dips mildly today but stays above 0.6239 minor support. Intraday bas stays neutral first. With 0.6329 resistance intact, outlook will stay bearish. On the downside, break of 0.6239 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. However, firm break of 0.6329 will bring stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413, even just as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6516) holds.

Trade tensions remain at the forefront of market concerns as the US prepares to roll out another wave of tariffs. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, adding to the existing duties on these metals. The official announcement is expected today. Meanwhile, "reciprocal tariffs"—which would match the import duties imposed by other countries—are set to be unveiled between Tuesday and Wednesday, with immediate implementation.

The largest suppliers of steel and aluminum to the US are Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, followed by South Korea and Vietnam. Canada, in particular, dominates the aluminum export market to the US, contributing 79% of total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. The announcement raises questions about how these countries might respond, given that Canada and Mexico only recently secured a temporary reprieve from tariffs on other goods.

Interestingly, Hong Kong’s stock market has shown resilience, posting extended gains despite escalating trade tensions. Investors appear unfazed by the recent flurry of US tariff news, as well as China’s retaliatory levies on select American products. The factors supporting Hong Kong’s optimism remain unclear, and more time would be required to assess whether regional equities can maintain this momentum if trade frictions intensify further.

Technically, HSI's break of 21070.05 resistance last week suggests that correction from 23241.74 has completed at 18671.59 already, despite being deeper than expected. The medium term up trend from 14794.16 should remain intact, with notable support from 55 W EMA too. Retest of 23241.74 resistance should be seen next and firm break there will target 25k handle, which is close to 100% projection of 16964.28 to 23241.74 from 18671.49.

Looking ahead, markets will keep a close watch on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Congressional testimonies, particularly any remarks concerning inflation and labor market conditions. Major data releases this week include US CPI, UK GDP, Swiss CPI, and key confidence reports from Australia and New Zealand.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.10%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.15%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.23%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.63%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0193 at 1.322, hitting a fresh high since 2011.

China’s CPI picks up to 0.5%, but factory prices remain stuck in deflation

China's consumer inflation accelerated at the start of 2025, with CPI rising from 0.1% yoy to 0.5% yoy in January, slightly exceeding market expectations of 0.4%. This marked the fastest annual increase in five months. On a monthly basis, CPI surged 0.7% mom, the strongest rise in over three years.

Core inflation, which strips out food and fuel prices, edged up from 0.4% yoy to 0.6% yoy, reflecting a modest pickup in underlying demand. Food prices climbed by 0.4% yoy, while non-food categories also posted a 0.5% yoy increase.

However, despite these gains, consumer inflation remains well below the government’s target, with full-year 2024 CPI growth coming in at just 0.2%, the lowest since 2009, and reinforcing the persistent weakness in domestic consumption.

Meanwhile, producer prices remained firmly in deflationary territory. PPI held steady at -2.3% yoy in January, missing expectations of a slight improvement to -2.2% yoy. This marks the 28th consecutive month of factory-gate deflation, highlighting ongoing struggles within the manufacturing sector and pricing pressures stemming from weak external demand and excess capacity.

Powell’s testimony, US inflation data, and UK GDP in focus this week

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Congressional testimony will be a key event this week as markets seek further clarity on Fed’s path. In particular, the main question is whether Fed’s hold at the last meeting is the start of a longer pause in the easing cycle.

Following January’s FOMC decision to hold rates steady, Powell stated explicitly that Fed is in "no hurry" to cut interest rates. Several Fed officials have since emphasized that declining inflation alone may not be sufficient for additional rate reductions, with the labor market's performance playing a crucial role. Lawmakers are expected to press Powell for further details on how Fed will balance these factors in shaping monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Friday’s Monetary Policy Report offered minimal commentary on the impact of US tariff policies. It merely noted that "some market participants" cited tariff-related uncertainties as a factor driving the dollar higher in recent months. Given the evolving nature of Trump's trade strategy and the lack of clear direction, Powell is unlikely to provide definitive answers on how tariffs will influence Fed policy. Nonetheless, market participants will closely follow any indication that trade-related uncertainties might alter the Fed’s rate outlook.

US CPI and retail sales data will also be closely watched. Headline inflation is expected to remain at 2.9% in January, with core CPI easing slightly from 3.2% to 3.1%. Risks remain that inflation could remain sticky as businesses begin adjusting for potential tariff impacts. If inflation prints in line with expectations or surprises to the upside, it would reinforce Fed’s cautious approach and likely prolong the current pause in rate cuts.

Elsewhere, UK GDP report will be another highlight. The economy is expected to contract by -0.1% in Q4, raising concerns about a potential recession. After last week’s dovish 25bps rate cut by BoE, speculation has increased that another cut could come as early as March. While this is not yet the consensus view, any downside surprise in GDP data could fuel expectations of a back-to-back rate reduction, particularly as known hawk Catherine Mann has already shifted to a more dovish stance.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Japan bank lending, current account, Eco Watcher sentiment; Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence.
• Tuesday: Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business confidence; Canada building permits.
• Wednesday: Japan machine tool orders; US CPI; BoC summary of deliberations.
• Thursday: Japan PPI; New Zealand inflation expectations; Germany CPI final; UK GDP, trade balance; Swiss CPI; Eurozone industrial production; US PPI, jobless claims.
• Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; Swiss PPI; Eurozone GDP revision; Canada manufacturing sales, wholesales sales; US retail sales, industrial production.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6251; (P) 0.6275; (R1) 0.6296; More...

AUD/USD dips mildly today but stays above 0.6239 minor support. Intraday bas stays neutral first. With 0.6329 resistance intact, outlook will stay bearish. On the downside, break of 0.6239 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. However, firm break of 0.6329 will bring stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413, even just as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6516) holds.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD failed to continue higher above 1.0450 and trimmed gains.
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.0385 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is consolidating near the 1.2380 zone.
• USD/JPY dipped toward the 151.20 level and started a consolidation phase.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh increase above 1.0350 against the US Dollar. However, EUR/USD struggled near 1.0450 and recently trimmed gains.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below the 1.0380 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears pushed the pair below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0210 swing low to the 1.0442 high.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.0365 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0210 swing low to the 1.0442 high.

The next key support sits near the 1.0250 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.0210 level. On the upside, the pair seems to be facing hurdles near the 1.0330 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0360 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.0400 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above the 1.0400 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.0465 resistance.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair was able to recover above the 1.2350 resistance, but the bears are still active below 1.2450.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• ECB's President Lagarde speech.

China's consumer inflation accelerated at the start of 2025, with CPI rising from 0.1% yoy to 0.5% yoy in January, slightly exceeding market expectations of 0.4%. This marked the fastest annual increase in five months. On a monthly basis, CPI surged 0.7% mom, the strongest rise in over three years.

Core inflation, which strips out food and fuel prices, edged up from 0.4% yoy to 0.6% yoy, reflecting a modest pickup in underlying demand. Food prices climbed by 0.4% yoy, while non-food categories also posted a 0.5% yoy increase.

However, despite these gains, consumer inflation remains well below the government’s target, with full-year 2024 CPI growth coming in at just 0.2%, the lowest since 2009, and reinforcing the persistent weakness in domestic consumption.

Meanwhile, producer prices remained firmly in deflationary territory. PPI held steady at -2.3% yoy in January, missing expectations of a slight improvement to -2.2% yoy. This marks the 28th consecutive month of factory-gate deflation, highlighting ongoing struggles within the manufacturing sector and pricing pressures stemming from weak external demand and excess capacity.

• USDCHF reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9185

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the round support level 0.9000 (which also stopped the previous correction (2)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline from December.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.

Given the clear daily uptrend, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.9185 (which has been reversing the price from May of 2024, as can be seen below).

• Dow Jones reversed from the resistance level 45000.00
• Likely to fall to support level 44000.00

Dow Jones index recently reversed down from the strong resistance level 45000.00 (which has been reversing the price from November) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band

The downward reversal from the resistance level 45000.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover after the index created Bearish Engulfing at the end of January.

Given the strength of the resistance level 45000.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to fall to the next support level 44000.00 (low of the previous correction (2)).

Dollar faced significant volatility last week as shifting trade policy signals from the White House left investors scrambling for clarity. Initially, tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports were imposed, only to be quickly suspended for 30 days following new agreements on border security and fentanyl control. Now, the focus turns to “reciprocal tariffs,” a move that could see the US impose duties equivalent to those faced by American exports in key markets.

While traders hope for clarity once the reciprocal tariffs are officially announced, the risk of another abrupt reversal remains high. The unpredictability of the administration’s trade stance, particularly regarding its approach toward key partners like the European Union, suggests continued volatility in currency markets. Until the full scope of Trump’s trade strategy is revealed, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile, with investors hesitant to commit to a firm direction.

Amid these confusions, Yen stood out as the strongest performer, supported by positive economic data that reinforced expectations of further BoJ rate hikes. Canadian Dollar followed behind, benefiting from a temporary tariff reprieve and stronger-than-expected employment report. Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand Dollars managed to recover some ground, but their gains were limited by the continued US tariffs on Chinese goods and the lack of any progress in US-China trade negotiations.

On the weaker side, Euro was the worst-performing currency, struggling under the weight of tariff threats. Despite its late-week bounce, Dollar ended the week near the bottom of the performance rankings. British Pound also weakened after the BoE delivered a surprisingly dovish rate cut, while the Swiss Franc was also soft.

Duel Uncertainty of Trade War and Hawkish Fed Outlook in the US

Investors in US financial markets are grappling with two major uncertainties—President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff strategy and Fed’s interest rate outlook. This dual uncertainty has led to volatile but indecisive trading in major equity indices and large price swings in Dollar, reflecting broader confusion in the markets.

Trump’s Tariff Play: Economic Policy or Political Leverage?

The core intention behind Trump’s tariff policies remains unclear. His administration initially imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, only to suspend them for 30 days following agreements with both nations on border security and fentanyl control measures. This move suggests that Trump may be using tariffs as a tool for securing non-trade-related concessions rather than purely as an economic strategy. The immediate delay in enforcement highlights that these tariffs could be more of a negotiation tactic than an outright protectionist measure.

However, fresh concerns emerged on Friday when Trump said that the US would announce, in the coming days, “reciprocal tariffs” on a range of trading partners to ensure American exports are treated “evenly.” This move, if implemented broadly, could have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly if the US targets major trade partners like the European Union. Unlike the previous round of tariffs during Trump’s first term, which were primarily aimed at China, this time the scope appears much wider, raising the specter of more extensive trade disruptions.

The biggest risk is that tariffs could become an ongoing feature of US trade policy rather than a temporary bargaining tool. With Trump also eyeing the EU as a target, the outlook for global trade is highly uncertain. For now, investors are clearly staying in wait-and-see mode, monitoring Trump’s next steps closely.

Strong US Job Market to Keep Fed on Hold, Inflation Risks Re-Emerging?

While trade concerns dominate the headlines, the strength of the US labor market has reinforced expectations that Fed will remain in a prolonged pause on rate cuts.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan articulated a noteworthy point last week. She argued falling inflation with robust labor market means interest rates are already near neutral. That would leave little room for further easing in the near term. Fed would then stay on hold until there is clear evidence of a labor market slowdown, not just declining inflation.

Friday’s non-farm payroll report added weight to this narrative. While job growth slowed to 143K, falling short of expectations, revisions to previous months were significant, with December’s figure being adjusted upward to 307K. Additionally, the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined from 4.1% to 4.0%, suggesting that the labor market remains resilient. Wage growth also accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising 0.5% mom —above expectations—bringing the annual increase to 4.1%.

Another concerning development in recent data was the sharp rise in consumer inflation expectations. University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers revealed that short-term inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2023. Long-term inflation expectations also ticked higher, reaching 3.3%, marking the highest reading since June 2008.

If inflation expectations continue rising alongside strong wage growth, Fed could face renewed pressure to reconsider its monetary policy stance. A scenario where inflation remains stubbornly above target while employment stays strong could force Fed to maintain high rates longer than markets currently anticipate. In an extreme case, policymakers may even have to consider reintroducing rate hikes—an outcome that is not currently priced into the market but remains a potential risk, albeit minor.

S&P 500 Stuck in Range, Upside Appears Limited

Technically, S&P 500's price actions from 6128.18 (Jan high) are still corrective looking, suggesting larger up trend remains intact. However, even in case of up trend resumption, loss of momentum as seen in D MACD could limit upside at 61.8% projection of 5119.26 to 6099.97 from 5773.31 at 6379.38.

On the other hand, strong break of 55 D EMA (now at 5970.70) would put 5773.31 structural support into focus. Firm break of 5773.31 will argue that a medium term top was already in place, and larger scale correction is underway.

Sideway Trading to Continue in Dollar Index and 10-Year Yield

Dollar Index's initial spike was capped below 110.17 resistance, and followed by steep pull back. Overall outlook is unchanged that consolidation pattern from 110.17 is still extending. In case of another selloff, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 100.15 to 110.17 at 106.34 to bring rebound. However, firm break of 110.17 is needed to confirm up trend resumption, which is unlikely for the near term. Hence, sideway trading is set to continue for a while.

10-year yield's fall from 4.809 extended lower last week but recovered notably on Friday to close at 4.487. As long as 38.2% retracement of 3.603 to 4.809 at 4.348 stays intact, price actions from 4.809 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Break of 4.590 will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited by 4.809, at least on first attempt. That is, similar to Dollar Index, range trading will likely continue for a while.

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY Tumble as Yen Rides Rate Expectations and Trade Uncertainty

Yen emerged as a dominant force in the forex markets last week, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY among the biggest losers, down -2.7% and -2.3% respectively. The shift was driven by a combination of declining US and European benchmark yields, alongside increasing expectations of further BoJ rate hikes. These factors reinforced the Yen’s bullish momentum and kept both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY under heavy selling pressure.

BoJ board member Naoki Tamura, the most hawkish voices within the central bank, continued to advocate his view that interest rates should rise to at least 1% by the end of fiscal 2025. His stance gained additional credibility after IMF also backed a gradual rate hike approach, recommending that the policy rate reach the midpoint of 1.5% within the 1-2% neutral range by the end of 2027.

The case for BoJ tightening has been reinforced by strong nominal wage growth, with real wages increasing for a second consecutive month. More importantly, the wage gains are feeding into stronger consumption, a critical factor in sustaining inflation at the central bank’s 2% target. If this trend continues, BoJ will have even more reason to proceed with further hikes.

Meanwhile, Euro came under additional pressure from Trump’s tariff threats. With a formal reciprocal tariff announcement expected soon, the EU is almost certain to be included, raising fears of another prolonged trade conflict. Given the region’s reliance on exports, such a development could have a significant negative impact on Eurozone already sluggish growth prospects, forcing ECB to take a more dovish stance than currently anticipated.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has been advocating for a “middle path” in policy easing, balancing inflation risks with economic headwinds. However, should tariffs materialize, ECB might be forced to accelerate rate cuts to cushion the economy from external shocks

The UK has fared somewhat better as it is not a primary target of Trump’s trade measures. However, BOE’s unexpectedly dovish rate cut last week has left the Pound vulnerable too. Notably, hawkish policymaker Catherine Mann made a surprising U-turn, voting for a 50bps rate cut, a sharp departure from her previous stance. The base case still remains a quarterly 25bps cut throughout 2025 for BoE, but the risk is now tilted slightly toward a more aggressive easing cycle.

Technically, as selloff in EUR/JPY intensified, the development in the next few weeks would be crucial. Attention will be on 100% projection of 100% projection of 166.7 to 156.16 from 164.89 at 154.38, which is close to 154.40 key support.

Firm break there will resume whole pattern from 175.41 medium term top. More importantly, that would make 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 key long term fibonacci level vulnerable.

For GBP/JPY, the focus will be on 100% projection of 198.94 to 189.31 from 194.73 at 185.10. Decisive break there could prompt downside acceleration through 180.00 low to resume whole decline from 208.09 medium term top. That would at least put 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 as next target.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD spiked higher to 1.4791 last week but reversed sharply from there. Nevertheless, downside is contained by 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4264). There is no sign of reversal yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.4501 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. Larger up trend is expected to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.4260 will indicate that deeper correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3392) holds.

Despite all the volatility last week, EUR/USD is still bounded in range above 1.0176. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

In the long term picture, down trend from 1.6039 remains in force with EUR/USD staying well inside falling channel, and upside of rebound capped by 55 M EMA (now at 1.0929). Consolidation from 0.9534 could extend further and another rising leg might be seem. But as long as 1.1274 resistance holds, eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.