Sample Category Title

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 153.77 on Monday, reaching a three-week high. This movement reflects growing investor sentiment that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its current interest rate level and continue its pause on monetary policy tightening at this week's meeting. Recent statements from the BoJ have indicated a need for more evidence to substantiate wage increases before considering rate changes.

Expectations of a BoJ rate hike had previously supported the yen, mitigating external pressures. However, confidence in the BoJ's commitment to tightening seems to wane as time progresses.

Despite this, Japan's domestic economic indicators appear positive. October's primary machinery and equipment orders surpassed expectations, and recent reports have shown improvement in both manufacturing and service sector activity in December.

BoJ policymakers are increasingly unconcerned about the weakening yen's potential to accelerate inflation, which is already at desirable levels. However, further yen depreciation could push inflation higher, a scenario that remains on the central bank's radar.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 chart: USD/JPY has established a consolidation range around the 151.51 level, from which it has continued its upward trajectory. The pair recently touched 153.93, and current technical setups suggest a potential consolidation below this peak. Should the price break downward, a corrective movement to retest 151.51 is possible, followed by another potential rise towards 154.40. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line well above zero but indicating readiness for a downward correction.

H1 chart: The shorter-term H1 chart shows the USD/JPY forming a growth structure aimed at 154.40. After completing a consolidation around 152.70 and achieving a local high at 153.93, a correction back to at least 152.70 is anticipated. Following this correction, the market may initiate a new growth phase targeting 154.40. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this analysis. It is currently positioned below 80 and poised to move down towards 20, suggesting an impending correction before further upward movement.

ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech today marked a departure from previous guidance shaped by high inflation and significant uncertainty.

Lagarde highlighted that the earlier approach, which aimed to maintain restrictive rates “for as long as necessary,” is no longer aligned with the ECB’s evolving outlook for inflation and risk balance.

However, with "disinflation process well on track" and growth risks becoming more pronounced, ECB now aims for an "appropriate" policy approach.

She reiterated that if data continues to confirm their expectations, ECB expects to lower rates further.

Full speech of ECB's Lagarde here.

Analysing Bitcoin's price on 6th December, we:

→ noted that more likely Trump’s victory in the presidential election and his plans to create a strategic reserve dedicated to Bitcoin were the primary driver of BTC/USD’s growth in November.

→ Identified two ascending channels (highlighted in blue and orange) that mapped the fluctuations within the upward trend, which pushed Bitcoin’s price to $100,000.

Over the weekend, President-elect Trump confirmed his intention to establish a strategic reserve dedicated to Bitcoin, propelling Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high above $106,000.

Meanwhile, a technical analysis of the BTC/USD 4-hour chart reveals:

→ The price reached the upper boundary of the orange channel, which acted as resistance. The candle’s upper wick suggests potential selling pressure, indicating that major market participants might be taking advantage of the price surge to lock in returns.

→ Narrow-range fluctuations (marked with a blue oval) may indicate the position of the blue channel’s median line, while the RSI indicator is in an overbought zone.

Given these observations, we could suggest that the market is in a vulnerable position for a pullback — possibly toward the blue median line, where Bitcoin’s price might be more balanced for both buyers and sellers.

FXOpen offers the world's most popular cryptocurrency CFDs*, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Floating spreads, 1:2 leverage — at your service. Open your trading account now or learn more about crypto CFD trading with FXOpen.

*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

• Gold falls below $2,700 after double top
• Maintains neutrality within $2,540-$2,720

Gold came under renewed selling pressure after the bulls ran out of fuel marginally above the previous lower high of $2,721, unable to initiate a clear bullish reversal.

Volatility was low during Monday’s early European trading hours, with the price being squeezed between the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,655 and the short-term support trendline from November’s low near $2,643.

With the stochastic oscillator sloping downwards and the RSI struggling to move above 50, there is little optimism for a meaningful rally. A close below $2,645 could prompt fresh selling toward the $2,600 round-level, a break of which may further dampen market sentiment, causing a drop to $2,540-$2,560. Additional declines from there would put the price back in a bearish path in the short-term picture, shifting the focus to the $2,480 area.

For the bulls to keep buying interest alive, they should first reclaim the $2,680 area and then sustainably run above the $2,720 wall. If the $2,750 barrier gives the green light, the price may surpass its record high of $2,789 with scope to mark a new higher high, probably near $2,840.

In summary, the recent pullback in the precious metal kept the neutral market structure intact. This might be an opportunity for traders to exercise their patience. A move above $2,720-$2,750 or below $2,540 is required to provide the next direction in the market.

UK PMI Manufacturing PMI slipped from 48.0 to 47.3, an 11-month low. Services PMI improved from 50.4 to 51.4. PMI Composite held steady at 50.5, signaling stagnation in overall economic activity.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, described a "triple whammy" facing businesses: stalled growth, declining employment, and renewed inflationary pressures.

While the PMI suggests that the economy remained broadly stagnant in Q4, the outlook for 2025 appears increasingly uncertain. Weak confidence, labor market retrenchment, and inflation risks could weigh heavily on economic activity.

Williamson said BoE faces the difficult task of balancing support for growth against the need to maintain inflation control, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing in the coming months.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.93; (P) 193.69; (R1) 194.53; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Corrective pattern from 180.00 could be extending with another rising level. Above 194.98 will extend the rise from 188.07 to 199.79 resistance. However, break of 192.35 will turn bias back to the downside for 188.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.16; (P) 160.86; (R1) 162.07; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 156.16 is in progress. Sideway pattern from 154.40 might still be in progress, and is extending with another rising leg. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 161.68) will pave the way to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, break of 159.09 support will turn bias back to the downside for 156.16 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8273; (P) 0.8298; (R1) 0.8347; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.8224 short term bottom is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8224 at 0.8377. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.8471, even as a corrective move. On the downside, break of 0.8290 minor support will bring retest of 0.8224 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on whether 0.8201 key support (2022 low) is strong enough to complete the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). In any case, medium term outlook will be neutral at best until decisive break of 0.8624 key resistance. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6434; (P) 1.6477; (R1) 1.6554; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in range trading and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6598 resistance should confirm that whole fall from 1.7180 has complete with three waves down to 1.5963. Further rise should then be seen to retest 1.7180 next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.6359 will indicate rejection by 1.6598, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9346; (P) 0.9366; (R1) 0.9397; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the upside as rise from 0.9204 is in progress for 100% projection of 0.9204 to 0.9343 from 0.9254 at 0.9393. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.9444 resistance to 161.8% projection at 0.9479. On the downside, below 0.9335 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.9254 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9359) suggests that a medium term bottom might be in place already. Strong rise could be seen 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Reaction from there would reveal whether rebound from 0.9204 is merely a corrective rise, or reversing the down trend from 0.9928.