Sample Category Title

GBP/USD's decline last week suggests that corrective recovery from 1.2486 might have completed at 1.2810 already. Break of 1.2615 should affirm this case, and bring deeper decline through 1.2486 to resume the whole fall from 1.3433. Next target will be 1.2298 cluster support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 medium term are seen as correcting whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. But strong support is expected there to bring rebound to extend the corrective pattern.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. But in any case, outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds.

USD/CHF's strong rebound last week suggests that correction from 0.8956 has already completed at 0.8735, and rise from 0.8374 is ready to resume. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Break of 0.8956 will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095. On the downside, below 0.8866 minor support will delay the bullish case and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.8374 as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD edged lower last week but turned sideway after hitting 0.6336. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6546) holds. Below 0.6336 will resume the fall from 0.6941 to 0.6269 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006. More sideway trading could be seen above 0.6169, but overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6941 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6169 will resume the down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, even in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.

USD/CAD's up trend continued last week and there is no sign of topping. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.4391 projection level next. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.4119 support will indicate short term topping and bring correction.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3706) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3418 support holds.

GBP/JPY's rebound from 188.07 extended higher last week and the development argues that corrective pattern from 188.07 is extending with another rising level. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations below 194.98 temporary top. Above there will extend the rise to 199.79 resistance. However, break of 192.35 will turn bias back to the downside for 188.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it's at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 172.51).

EUR/JPY's rebound from 156.16 extended higher last week and the development dampened the original bearish view. Sideway pattern from 154.40 might still be in progress, and is extending with another rising leg. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 161.69) will pave the way to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, break of 159.09 support will turn bias back to the downside for 156.16 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.55).

Despite initial dip to 0.8224, EUR/GBP staged a strong rebound ahead of 0.8201 key support. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term bottom could at least be formed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8224 at 0.8377. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.8471, even as a corrective move. On the downside, break of 0.8271 support will bring retest of 0.8224 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on whether 0.8201 key support (2022 low) is strong enough to complete the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). In any case, medium term outlook will be neutral at best until decisive break of 0.8624 key resistance. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's rally from 1.5963 extend further to 1.6573 last week but failed to break through 1.6598 resistance and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6598 resistance should confirm that whole fall from 1.7180 has complete with three waves down to 1.5963. Further rise should then be seen to retest 1.7180 next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.6359 will indicate rejection by 1.6598, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6047) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF's strong rally and decisive break of 0.9434 resistance last week confirmed resumption of the rebound from 0.9204. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9204 to 0.9343 from 0.9254 at 0.9393. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.9444 resistance to 161.8% projection at 0.9479. On the downside, below 0.9335 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.9254 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9359) suggests that a medium term bottom might be in place already. Strong rise could be seen 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Reaction from there would reveal whether rebound from 0.9204 is merely a corrective rise, or reversing the down trend from 0.9928.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Canadian Highlights

• The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.25%. This is the second straight upsized cut to interest rates, and marks a cumulative 175 bps of easing since the Bank first lowered rates in June.
• There are more cuts to come in 2025, but the Bank’s forward-looking comments signaled greater uncertainty over the path for interest rates.
• Canadian household wealth continues to rise, bolstering our view that consumer spending will firm up over the coming quarters.

U.S. Highlights

• November CPI inflation provided further evidence that progress on the inflation front has stalled.
• The FOMC is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25 bps next week and simultaneously hint towards a potential ‘pause’ in January to better assess recent inflation dynamics.
• The FOMC will also release a revised set of economic projections, which will shed some light on how Committee members’ views have shifted post-election.

Canada – No More 50s in ‘25

It was the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) turn to take center stage this week and markets got the show they wanted. The Bank cut its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.25%–the second consecutive supersized cut. The BoC has now reduced the overnight rate by 175 bps since June (Chart 1). The decision met consensus expectations, but market moves over the week were choppy. The Canadian dollar appreciated almost half a percent immediately post-meeting but ended up losing ground, finishing the week at 0.7030 U.S. cents. Yields marched higher, with the Canadian 2 and 10-year bonds up 10 and 15 bps, respectively.

There is a lot to unpack in this announcement. The BoC has made it clear that the economy no longer needs to be clearly in restrictive territory. And with the Bank’s range for the neutral rate currently at 2.25–3.25%, the policy rate in the eyes of the BoC is in now in more balanced territory. The Bank feels that inflation is stabilizing around their two percent target and has now shifted towards prioritizing the softer growth outlook.

There was one key change in the statement that injected uncertainty about the path forward for interest rates. In October, the Bank stated that they “expect” to reduce borrowing costs if the economy evolves broadly in line with their forecasts. This week, that changed to, “going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.” It’s a meaningful shift in tone and one that all but takes another 50 bps move off the table.

The BoC acknowledged the host of domestic and external uncertainties facing Canada’s economy in 2025. For one, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to place 25% tariffs on Canadian goods exports severely clouds the economic outlook. Meanwhile, recent immigration policy changes will stall Canada’s population growth inducing both demand and supply effects. A wave of fiscal stimulus including one-time payments to individuals and a temporary suspension of the GST also have the potential to reignite consumer spending channels. In fact, our recent forecast has consumer spending as one of the key drivers of 2025 real GDP growth (Chart 2). An update on Canadian household balance sheets this week also showed that wealth continues to rise, bolstering our view that spending should continue to firm in the near-term.

As discussed in our recent forecast, we expect the BoC to cut another 100 bps–or one 25 bps cut per quarter–in 2025 to reach our estimate of the “neutral” rate by 2.25%. There is little doubt that elevated interest rates did their part in taking heat out of the economy. We think a gradual pace of further cuts is the prudent decision to allow the economy to slowly close economic slack, while minimizing the risk of reigniting inflation. The BoC has is navigating a tough stretch ahead as it aims to balance many competing forces in an effort to properly calibrate interest rates.

U.S. – December Cut Expected, January ‘Pause’ Increasingly Likely

For a year that was supposed to eke out only modest equity gains, the S&P 500 is up an impressive 27% year-to-date (Chart 1). The return is even more notable given that the Federal Reserve has so far delivered on only 75-bps of policy easing, or considerably less than the 150-bps priced by futures markets for 2024 at the end of last year. And even though another quarter-point cut is universally expected next Wednesday CPI and PPI data out this week provided more evidence that progress on the inflation front is indeed stalling and will likely lead to a more gradual path of policy easing in 2025.

Headline CPI inflation accelerated by its fastest pace in seven months in November, pushing the twelve-month change to 2.7%, up from its three-year low of 2.4% in October. Meanwhile, core inflation rose at a similar pace to the prior three-months, though the composition of price pressures shifted somewhat. Services inflation cooled last month, owing to a notable deceleration in shelter costs, but this was offset by a sharp uptick in goods prices and firm readings on ‘supercore’ inflation.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is released next Friday. Mapping the CPI data into core PCE points to a ‘soft’ 0.3% m/m increase in November, pushing near-term trends higher (Chart 2). This is likely to unnerve FOMC members, who need to see further evidence of cooling inflationary pressures before committing to future rate cuts. This is a message that Fed Chair Powell is likely to telegraph at next week’s policy announcement.

The FOMC will also release a revised set of economic projections, which will provide insight on how policymaker’s view of the outlook and future path for the policy rate has shifted post-election. In the September projections, the median ‘dot’ assumed 100-bps of policy easing in 2025, or nearly double what’s currently reflected in futures pricing. However, core PCE inflation is running about 25 bps hotter than the 2.6% assumed in the last set of projections for the fourth quarter of this year. This suggests that the median dots for 2025 could shift a bit higher. But that’s by no means a guarantee, as each Committee member will make their own assumptions on scope, magnitude, and timing of potential policy changes under the incoming administration. This could very well lead to a wider dispersion in forecasts.

This is exactly what happened in December 2016, following the last Republican sweep. Transcripts from those FOMC meetings show that roughly half of the FOMC members incorporated some degree of fiscal stimulus in their individual forecasts. So even though Powell is unlikely to speculate on the impact of potential policy changes during next week’s press conference, it’s very likely that some FOMC members will have baked in some impacts from tariffs and/or tax cuts into their revised projections. Given the policy uncertainties and the fact that recent inflation readings have shown that progress has stalled, we suspect that the FOMC will open the door to a ‘pause’ on rate cuts in January and shift to cutting rates at every other meeting in 2025.