Sample Category Title

GBP/USD - 1.3458

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3445

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3423

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3332

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3305

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.3385, Target: 1.3485, Stop: 1.3350

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has maintained a firm undertone after recent rally above previous resistance at 1.3383 (now support), adding credence to our bullish view that the erratic rise from 1.3027 low is still in progress, hence upside bias remains for this move to extend further gain to 1.3480-85, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3500-10 and price should falter below 1.2475-80, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy sterling on subsequent pullback as 1.3383 (previous resistance turned support) should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 1.3355-60 would suggest top is formed instead, bring weakness to 1.3330, then towards 1.3300 but reckon downside would be limited to 1.3260-65.

EUR/USD - 1.1864

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1860

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1850

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1894

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1859

New strategy  :

Buy at market level, Target: 1.1965, Stop: 1.1835

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the single currency fell to as low as 1.1817 yesterday, the subsequent rebound suggests low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1895-00, however, break of indicated resistance at 1.1920 is needed to signal the pullback from 1.1961 has ended at 1.1817, bring further gain towards this level, break there would extend recent upmove to 1.1990-00 which is likely to hold from here.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro again on dips. Below 1.1830-35 would risk retest of 1.1817 but only break there would signal the retreat from 1.1961 is still in progress for retracement of recent rise to 1.1805-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1713-1.1961) and possibly towards 1.1770 but price should stay well above support at 1.1736, bring rebound later.

USD/JPY - 112.18

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 112.04

Kijun-Sen level                  : 111.79

Ichimoku cloud top             : 111.44

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 111.26

Original strategy  :

Buy at 111.40, Target: 112.40, Stop: 111.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 111.40, Target: 112.40, Stop: 111.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has risen again after brief pullback, adding credence to our view that low has been formed at 110.84 earlier this week, hence consolidation with upside bias remains for this rebound to bring retracement of recent decline and further gain to 112.40-50 would be sen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below resistance at 112.72, bring retreat later this week.

In view of this, we are still looking to buy dollar on dips as 111.35-40 would limit downside. Below 111.05-10 would abort and signal the rebound from 110.84 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 110.70 and possibly towards 110.50.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.37% against the USD and closed at 0.7572.

LME Copper prices declined 0.6% or $43.5/MT to $6756.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.8% or $38.0/MT to $2062.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7589, with the AUD trading 0.22% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Australia's seasonally adjusted building approvals registered an unexpected rise of 0.9% in October, confounding market expectations for a fall of 1.0%. Building approvals had recorded a revised rise of 0.6% in the previous month.

Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the NBS manufacturing PMI unexpectedly advanced to a level of 51.8 in November, compared to a reading of 51.6 in the prior month, while markets were anticipating for a drop to a level of 51.4. Further, the nation's NBS non-manufacturing PMI climbed to a level of 54.8 in November, compared to a level of 54.3 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7561, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7532. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7609, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7628.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR marginally rose against the USD and closed at 1.1852, after data showed that inflation in the Euro-zone's largest economy picked up for first time in three months in November.

The flash consumer price index (CPI) in Germany rose more-than-expected by 1.8% on an annual basis in November, offering signs that robust growth in the nation's economy may be translating into higher prices. The CPI had registered a gain of 1.6% in the previous month, while markets were expecting for an increase of 1.7%.

Additionally, the Euro-zone's final consumer confidence index climbed to a 16-year high level of 0.1 in November, confirming the preliminary print. In the preceding month, the index had recorded a revised reading of -1.1. Moreover, the region's economic confidence index jumped to a level of 114.6 in November, hitting its highest level since October 2000 and meeting market expectations. In the prior month, the index had registered a revised reading of 114.1.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies, propelled by upbeat remarks on the US economy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Janet Yellen.

The Fed Chair stated that economic expansion in the US has gained strength this year and this would encourage the central bank to continue gradual interest rate hikes in order to sustain a healthy labour market and stabilise inflation at the its target. However, Yellen expressed significant concerns over the nation's surging public debt and income inequality.

Separately, the Fed Beige Book report indicated that economic growth across the US advanced at a modest to moderate pace in October through mid-November. Further, it revealed that inflationary pressures have strengthened and the labour market has continued to tighten.

On the data front, the second estimate of annualised gross domestic product (GDP) showed that the US economy climbed more than initially estimated by 3.3% QoQ in the third quarter of 2017, notching its fastest pace in three years, buoyed by robust business spending. The annualised GDP had recorded a rise of 3.1% in the prior quarter, while the preliminary figures had indicated a rise of 3.0%. Also, the nation's pending home sales rebounded 3.5% on a monthly basis in October, beating markets consensus for a rise of 1.0% and compared to a revised fall of 0.4% in the prior month.

On the other hand, the nation's mortgage applications declined 3.1% in the week ended 24 November. Mortgage applications had climbed 0.1% in the previous week.

Meanwhile, the Senate Budget Committee, voted 52-48 to begin formal debate on a key Republican tax bill.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1866, with the EUR trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1829, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1792. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1892, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1918.

Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by the release of the Euro-zone's CPI for November and unemployment rate data for October, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, Germany's unemployment rate data for November and retail sales data for October, will also garner significant amount of investor attention. Additionally, the US initial jobless claims, followed by personal income and spending data for October, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.3414, on hopes that Britain and the European Union moved closer to a Brexit deal.

In economic news, UK's mortgage approvals dropped to a level of 64.6K in October, falling to a more than one-year low level. Mortgage approvals had registered a revised reading of 66.1K in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a drop to a level of 65.0K. Moreover, the nation's net consumer credit advanced £1.45 billion in October, less than market expectations for a rise of £1.50 billion. In the prior month, net consumer credit had registered a revised rise of £1.48 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3471, with the GBP trading 0.42% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that the nation's GfK consumer confidence index eased to a 4-month low level of -12.0 in November, as households turned gloomy about the nation's economic outlook. The index had recorded a level of -10.0 in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a fall to a level of -11.0.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3391, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3312. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3515, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.356.

Going ahead, trades would focus on UK's Nationwide house prices for November, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.43% against the JPY and closed at 111.98.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 111.98, with the USD trading flat against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Data released overnight showed that Japan's flash industrial production rebounded less-than-expected by 0.5% MoM in October, following a drop of 1.0% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged industrial production to climb 1.8%.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.52, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.07. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.29, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.61.

Moving ahead, investors will keep a close watch on Japan's jobless rate and the national consumer price index, both for October, due to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.06% against the CHF and closed at 0.9844.

On the macro front, Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations index advanced to a level of 40.7 in November, compared to a reading of 32.0 in the prior month. Further, the nation’s UBS consumption indicator advanced to a level of 1.54 in October, after recording a revised level of 1.51 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9841, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9818, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9795. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9867, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9893.

Ahead in the day, market participants would eye Switzerland’s real retail sales for October and the KOF leading indicator for November.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.41% against the CAD and closed at 1.2864.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2860, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2819, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2777. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2888, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2915.

With no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, trading trend in the CAD is expected to be determined by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Dow Future Short term Elliott Wave view suggests that Intermediate wave (4) ended at 23204. The rally from there is proposed to be unfolding as a leading diagonal Elliott wave structure. Minute wave ((i)) ended at 23464, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 23241, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 23599 and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 23572. Cycle from 11/15 low (23204) is mature and has reached 1.236 extension, but while pullbacks stay above 23618, Index still can see one more leg higher to end Minute wave ((v)).

The 5 waves leading diagonal rally from 23204 low should also end Minor wave 1 of larger degree. Index should then pullback in Minor wave 2 in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling any proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear again once Minor wave 2 pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing provided pivot at 23204 low stays intact.

YM_F Dow Future 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart