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Financial Stocks Pull DAX Downwards

MarketPulse

The DAX index has posted sharp in the Wednesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 12,862.50, down 1.31% on the day. On the release front, the eurozone trade surplus jumped to EUR 25.0 billion, above the estimate of EUR 21.2 billion. It's a busy day in the US, with the focus on consumer data. CPI is expected to come in at 0.1% and Core CPI at 0.2%. Consumer spending is also expected to post low numbers, with the estimate for Retail Sales at 0.2% and Core Retail Sales at 0.0%.

It's been a dismal November for the DAX, which has declined 3.6%. The index has posted six straight losing sessions and is at its lowest level since October 2. The downward trend has intensified on Wednesday, as financial stocks have dragged the index lower. Commerzbank is down 3.90%, while Deutsche Bank has declined 2.85 percent on the day.

Germany's economy continues to fire on all cylinders, and jumped to 0.8% in the third quarter, recording its strongest quarter since 2014. Germany's economy is growing at annualized rate of 2.8% in 2017. The catalyst for the strong reading was an increase in business investment, as sales of machinery and equipment increased. German fundamentals remain strong, as business and consumer confidence is high and unemployment remains at record-low levels. However, the positive economic conditions have failed to trigger much inflation, which has been a problem throughout the eurozone. German Final CPI dripped to 0.0% in October, the first time inflation has not moved higher since May. Germany has been the locomotive for the euorozone, and boosted traditional laggards such as France and Italy.

The heads of central banks met on Tuesday at an ECB event, with a focus on communication with the markets and the public. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged that the FOMC committee of 19 members posed problems, as members did not always speak with a unified voice. This led to the markets picking up on differences between policymakers, often leading to market volatility. Yellen admitted that this problem would not be solved anytime soon, saying it was “a work in progress”. To be fair, this is also an issue for the ECB, as the markets have on occasion reacted to comments from individual policymakers regarding monetary policy or quantitative easing.

CRUDE OIL Profit-Taking

Crude oil is consolidating after the commodity set up resistance at 57.92 (08/11/2017 high). The commodity is trading at 1-year high. Expected to show further shot-term bearish consolidation. Indeed the technical structure has a history of decent consolidation phase.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

SILVER Increasing Slightly

Silver is heading higher. Hourly support can be found at 16.60 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 17.46 (13/10/2017 high). Additional support can be found at 16.13 (06/10/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

GOLD Riding Short-Term Uptrend Channel

Gold is pushing higher. The technical structure confirms the end of the consolidation phase. Support lies at a distance at 1251 (08/08/2017 high). Resistance is now located at 1288 (20/10/2017).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

BITCOIN Back Around $7000

Bitcoin is now consolidating after recent surge. The technical structure shows a tremendous positive short-term momentum. Hourly support is now located at 5605 (13/11/2017 low). Strong support stands very far at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). In the short-term, the digital currency should continue rising.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

EUR/CHF Monitoring Resistance At 1.17

EUR/CHF has broken uptrend channel. Support is given at 1.1610 (27/10/2017 low). Expected further consolidation.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP Surging

EUR/GBP has exited symmetrical triangle. As long as prices are below the resistance at 0.9046 (05/09/2017 high), the short-term technical structure is biased to the downside. Hourly support is given at a distance at 0.8733 (01/11/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD Monitoring Support Area Below 0.76

AUD/USD is ready to go even lower showing that downside pressures are still lively. Hourly resistance is given at a distance at 0.7897 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to show renewed pressures towards key support at 0.7571 (05/07/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD Starting To Bounce Back

USD/CAD is riding higher. The technical structure suggests further strengthening towards resistance at 1.2917 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly support lies at 1.2667 (10/11/2017 low). Expected to show continued upside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF Continued Bearish Consolidation

USD/CHF is heading lower. Yet, the technical structure is still bullish. Yet, the pair has failed to hold consistently above the parity. If the pair heads towards 0.98, there might be even more downside pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.