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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 0.74% over the past 24 hours to $2.5 trillion. Today’s top performers include Immutable (+3.2%), SushiSwap (+0.8%) and Tron (+0.7%). The underperformers were Dash (−5.4%), Toncoin (−4.5%) and NEAR Protocol (−4.4%). The crypto market took a step back, despite further gains in stock indices. From its local low at the end of March, the crypto market has risen by 8.6%, a more modest increase than the Nasdaq 100’s 13.6%.

Bitcoin briefly rose above $76K on Tuesday, almost matching March’s peak levels, but had retreated to $73.6K at the time of writing. Buyers are looking for a catalyst to push the price to a new level beyond the consolidation range. If Bitcoin is looking for external signals, it may remain indecisive until key US stock indices hit new highs. However, we are more inclined to believe that the first cryptocurrency’s stagnation is a sign of a fragile risk appetite that will soon manifest in the broader market.

News Background

The conflict in Iran has increased the appeal of non-sovereign money and brought Bitcoin closer to serving as a real medium of exchange, according to Bitwise. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, BTC has risen by 12%, whilst the S&P 500 and gold have fallen by 1% and 10% respectively.

Bitcoin could fall to $30K only if the US economy enters a deep recession, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen. A correction of 65–70% from the highs is in line with historical trends and is not exceptional.

According to CoinDesk, derivatives accounted for 76.5% of the total trading volume on centralised crypto exchanges (CEX) in March — the highest figure since September 2023. Derivatives trading volume on CEXs stood at $3.99 trillion — 3.2% lower than in February.

Trump’s nominee for Fed chair has disclosed his cryptocurrency investments. Kevin Warsh has invested in the Polymarket prediction market and several decentralised startups, according to his financial disclosure statement.

Bitcoin is rising—but without conviction. Despite a broader improvement in risk sentiment this week on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, the rally in crypto remains notably subdued. While equities, particularly tech, are pushing back toward record highs, Bitcoin is still struggling well below the $80K psychological level, highlighting a clear lack of committed buying.

The divergence with equities is telling. With the NASDAQ on the verge of retesting its highs, Bitcoin’s inability to follow through suggests that the current move is not a full risk-on endorsement. Instead, it points to a market that is participating, but not leading—held back by a major unresolved factor: regulation.

At the center of that uncertainty is the Clarity Act, the key US crypto market structure bill. While it passed the House last July, progress has stalled in the Senate Banking Committee. The lack of a scheduled markup and the continued silence from leadership suggest that momentum behind the bill has faded.

The next two weeks represent a critical “do-or-die” window. With the Senate returning from recess, failure to advance the bill before May could push meaningful progress out to 2030. Once the US enters the campaign cycle ahead of the 2026 midterms, appetite for controversial legislation is expected to collapse.

Further dampening expectations is the shift in priorities within the Senate. Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has indicated that his immediate focus is the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May. That effectively sidelines crypto legislation in the near term, reinforcing the perception that regulatory clarity is not imminent.

This policy bottleneck is now acting as a ceiling for Bitcoin. The rally is intact, but the breakout is missing. Without progress on the Clarity Act, institutional participation is likely to remain cautious, limiting upside momentum.

Technically, Bitcoin’s structure reinforces this view. The price action from the 59,866 low appears to be a consolidation phase within the broader downtrend from 126,289. As long as 70,460 support holds, further upside toward 50% retracement of 97,922 to 59,866 at 78,894 is possible.

However, strong resistance is expected near 80,492—support turned resistance—which is likely to cap gains. This level now represents more than just a technical barrier; it is effectively a policy ceiling.

Unless regulatory clarity improves, rejection around 80K would likely complete the consolidation and set the stage for a renewed downtrend, with a retest of the 59,866 low.

• USD/JPY extends consolidation below key SMA.
• Momentum indicators flatten, signalling muted momentum.

USD/JPY is attempting to stabilise after halting a two‑day pullback, oscillating in a narrow range below the key 20‑day simple moving average (SMA) near the 159.00 psychological level. The pair remains confined within a broader 158.20-159.70 range that has held for just over a month.

Momentum indicators are easing back toward mid‑range levels, warranting caution before placing aggressive directional bets – the MACD remains in positive territory but below its signal line, while the RSI hovers near neutral, amid mixed geopolitical cues.

The dollar continues to soften amid renewed hopes of a US‑Iran peace deal, while the yen has found modest support as reports suggest the BoJ is considering upward revisions to its inflation forecasts, though broader economic concerns linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz continue to cap demand.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20‑day SMA near 159.19, followed by the range top at 159.70. Beyond that, the multi‑year high at 160.45, set in late April, comes back into focus.

On the downside, support lies at the range floor near 158.20, followed by the 50‑day SMA around 157.50 and the 100‑day SMA just below, ahead of 156.40. A break below this zone would increase downside pressure, potentially opening the way toward the long‑term uptrend near 155.50.

Summing up, USD/JPY remains trapped in choppy range‑bound trading, with small‑bodied candles and overlapping price action highlighting indecision. For now, a sustained reclaim of the 20‑day SMA is needed to ease immediate downside pressure and signal scope for a deeper recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 214.95; (P) 215.37; (R1) 215.84; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43. On the downside, below 214.56 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.05; (P) 187.32; (R1) 187.57; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98 next. On the downside, below 186.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 184.75 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8681; (P) 0.8699; (R1) 0.8712; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidation pattern from 0.8740 is still extending. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6507; (P) 1.6562; (R1) 1.6609; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the downside with breach of 1.6497 temporary low. Fall from 1.6842 is resuming and should target a retest on 1.6125 low. On the upside, above 1.6667 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7163) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9198; (P) 0.9209; (R1) 0.9224; More....

EUR/CHF is still extending the consolidation pattern from 0.9264 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rebound from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3733; (P) 1.3766; (R1) 1.3801; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3965 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665. Decisive break there will extend the decline from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3803 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7085; (P) 0.7116; (R1) 0.7157; More...

AUD/USD's from 0.6832 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 0.7187 high. Strong resistance could be seen there on first attempt. Below 0.7076 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Meanwhile, decisive break of 0.7187 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.