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In focus today

In the UK, February GDP is expected to increase 0.1% m/m, an increase from January's 0.0% m/m growth. The print is especially interesting in the light of Tuesday's IMF projections that UK GDP is forecasted to grow 0.8% y/y in 2026, a downward revision from 1.3% y/y and the hardest hit of the G7 countries on a per capita basis.

In the afternoon, the US March industrial production and manufacturing production are released, and both are expected at +0.1% m/m, a decline from +0.2% m/m in February.

In Sweden, focus is on SPES monthly labour market statistics and a speech by Riksbank's Per Jansson at 13:15 CET on current monetary policy and the economy. We expect a repeat of his relatively dovish stance as expressed in the minutes from the last meeting, not least as inflation has surprised on the downside and inflation expectations remain well anchored.

In the eurozone, final March inflation figures are released and expected to confirm flash estimates.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

China released its monthly batch of data overnight, which continued to show a two-speed economy with weak consumer demand and strong exports/production. GDP increased 5.0% y/y in Q1 above expectations of 4.8% y/y, and industrial production beat expectations at 5.7% y/y (cons: 5.3% y/y) lifted by strong export growth. Retail sales for March disappointed growing only 1.7% y/y from an average of 2.8% y/y in the first two months of the year. The main good news came from house prices that fell -0.21% m/m, less than what we have seen lately, while the unemployment rate increased from 5.3% in February to 5.4% in March, the highest level since February last year. The 5% GDP growth will give some comfort to policymakers in Beijing, but they will stand ready to provide economic stimulus over the coming quarters if the hit from the Iran war, to both exports and domestic demand, starts to get stronger. The numbers added to the positive risk sentiment in Chinese stocks overnight and the CNY strengthened slightly.

What happened yesterday

In the Middle East, Israel's cabinet is discussing a potential ceasefire deal with Lebanon, which could be announced soon according to Lebanese officials. Ending the Lebanon conflict is seen as important for broader peace talks between the US and Iran. However, as Hezbollah is not part of the talks, it remains unclear if the group would comply with a ceasefire. US-Iran talks may resume in Pakistan this weekend after previous discussions stalled, although no date has been set yet. The Trump administration expressed optimism on Wednesday about resolving the conflict; President Trump stated in an interview with Fox news that the Iran war is "almost over". That is despite enforcing a shipping blockade, that so far appears to have made nine ships turn around in the Strait of Hormuz and as traffic through the Strait remains subdued compared to pre-war levels.

Oil kept steady yesterday at around USD 95/bbl as markets continued its optimism that the resumption of talks between the US and Iran will lead to an eventual reopening of the strait and normalisation of the supply situation.

In the US, Kevin Warsh's hearing in the Senate has been set for 21 April. While the hearing is an important step in the process to be confirmed as Fed chair, the sticking point remains Republican Senator Tillis' opposition to vote for his approval as long as an ongoing criminal investigation into Powell over cost overruns at the Fed's headquarters continues. Polymarket sees about a 60% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed before Powell's term ends in May. If Warsh has not been confirmed by then, Miran might be appointed acting Fed chair, while Powell may continue to serve as FOMC chair as his position on the board of governors runs until 2028.

In Denmark, the EUR/DKK spot rate briefly reached 7.4732 yesterday, the level that previously triggered intervention by Danmarks Nationalbank, putting the upper end of the peg to the EUR back in focus. While markets currently price a roughly 50% probability of a 10bp independent rate hike by Danmarks Nationalbank this year, we believe it is more likely that liquidity developments will ease the pressure on the DKK.

Equities: Equities continued moving higher, with the S&P 500 setting a fresh all-time high. However, market breadth was weak. The S&P 500 closed up 0.8%, while the Stoxx 600 ended 0.4% lower. Additionally, most sectors in the US were actually down, although heavyweight tech continued to outperform. Tech surged 1.6% yesterday, marking a three-percentage point outperformance compared to US industrials. Software alone rallied 4.4%.

FI and FX: The USD underperformed vs all G10 peers yesterday, although changes are generally quite modest. EUR/USD still hovers around 1.18. USD/JPY trades at just 159 while GBP/USD has moved closer to 1.36. In Scandies, the NOK rose throughout the day bolstered by risk-on. EUR/NOK has returned to levels just above 11.00. EUR/SEK defied positive risk sentiment throughout the European session, which could have been related to repatriation flows. In the US and Asian sessions, however, EUR/SEK followed the script and slipped below 10.80. There have been modest movements in global bond yields and swaps as the market eye an extension of the ceasefire between US and Iran. UST10y trades at 4.27%.

UK economic activity strengthened in February, with GDP rising 0.5% mom, well above expectations of 0.1% mom. The expansion was broad-based, with both services and production increasing by 0.5%, while construction posted a stronger 1.0% gain, pointing to a solid rebound in output.

On a three-month basis, growth also improved. GDP expanded by 0.5% in the three months to February, up from 0.3% in the three months to January. Services output rose by 0.5%, while production led with a 1.2% increase, suggesting underlying momentum in the industrial sector.

However, the picture remains uneven. Construction output fell by -2.0% over the three-month period, highlighting ongoing weakness in parts of the economy.

Overall, the stronger headline data provides some relief for growth concerns, but does not fully offset broader uncertainties tied to inflation pressures and external risks.

Full UK GDP release here.

European currencies are maintaining an upward trajectory, having reached previously outlined levels amid sustained demand for the euro and the pound. The current advance is developing against a backdrop of gradually shifting market expectations and ongoing pressure on the US dollar. However, as prices approach key levels, traders are increasingly factoring in the risk of slowing momentum and a transition to more subdued price action.

Support for European currencies is largely driven by expectations surrounding upcoming macroeconomic releases from the UK and the eurozone, which remain in sharp focus for investors. Forthcoming data on economic activity and business conditions could influence expectations regarding central bank policy and, in turn, demand for the euro and sterling. At the same time, the market remains cautious ahead of key US data, which could rebalance expectations for Federal Reserve policy and alter the current market dynamics.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1800–1.1830 range, confirming the persistence of bullish momentum following the breakout. Technical analysis suggests the potential for further gains towards 1.1900–1.1940, provided that 1.1800 holds as support. At the same time, a downside correction towards 1.1740–1.1760 cannot be ruled out in the event of weaker eurozone data or stronger-than-expected US figures.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 13:45 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank representative Mauderer;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US);
• today at 19:45 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank President Nagel.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is showing a similar pattern, holding near recent highs and continuing within an upward trend. However, a “harami” reversal pattern formed on the daily chart yesterday, and confirmation of this signal could lead to a pullback towards 1.3480–1.3500. If the pair breaks above 1.3590, the uptrend may extend towards 1.3670–1.3700.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
• today at 10:55 (GMT+3): UK manufacturing output;
• today at 18:40 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Woods.

European currencies remain in an upward phase, having reached key reference levels, which increases uncertainty over the next directional move. Upcoming macroeconomic releases represent the main risk factor: depending on their outcome, the market may either extend the current uptrend or shift towards consolidation.

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Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil failed to surpass $105 and trimmed most gains.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $96.40 on the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD.
• Gold is facing a major hurdle near $4,950.
• EUR/USD seems to be consolidating gains above the 1.1740 support.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil prices faced resistance near $105 against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $100 and $95.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below $95, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). However, the bulls are active near the key support at $88.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $95.00 level. The first key hurdle for the bulls could be $96.00. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $96.40.

A close above $96.40 might send Oil prices toward $100. Any more gains might call for a test of $105 in the near term. On the downside, the first major support sits near the $88 zone. The next support could be $85.50, below which the price could dive and test $83.20.

A daily close below $83.20 could open the doors for a larger decline. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a drop toward $80.00.

Looking at Gold, there was a decent increase, but the bulls need to push the price above $4,950 for upside continuation.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 215K, versus 219K previous.
• US Industrial Production for March 2026 (MoM) – Forecast 0.1%, versus 0.2% previous.

China’s economy delivered a stronger-than-expected start to the year, with GDP expanding 5.0% yoy in Q1, accelerating from 4.5% in the previous quarter and beating expectations of 4.8%. Officials described the performance as a “solid start,” pointing to improving macro indicators and emerging growth drivers. The data suggests that policy support and industrial resilience continue to underpin activity.

However, the details reveal a more uneven picture beneath the headline. Industrial production rose 5.7% yoy in March, slowing slightly from February's 6.3%, but still outperforming forecasts of 5.4%, highlighting steady supply-side strength. In contrast, retail sales increased just 1.7% yoy, missing expectations of 2.8% yoy and signaling weakness in consumer demand.

Investment data reinforces this imbalance. Fixed asset investment edged lower to 1.7% ytd yoy, below expectations of 1.8%, with the property sector remaining a major drag. Property investment fell -11.2%, while private investment declined -2.2% in Q1, underscoring fragile business confidence and ongoing structural headwinds.

NBS officials acknowledged these challenges, warning that the external environment is becoming “more complex and volatile,” while the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand remains acute. This dynamic raises questions about the sustainability of the current growth pace, particularly as domestic demand struggles to gain traction.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious. Beijing has set a more flexible growth target range of 4.5% to 5% for the year, while the IMF recently trimmed its forecast to 4.4%, citing weak domestic activity and geopolitical risks.

Australia’s labor market showed steady conditions in March, with employment rising by 17.9k, in line with expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. The data suggests underlying resilience, even as participation edged slightly lower from 66.9% to 66.8%.

The composition of job growth, however, points to improving quality. Full-time employment surged by 52.5k, more than offsetting a sharp -34.6k decline in part-time roles. This shift toward full-time work was reflected in stronger labor utilization, with total hours worked rising by 0.5% mom, equivalent to an additional 9.2 million hours.

Overall, the report indicates a stable but firm labor market backdrop. While headline job growth was moderate, the strength in full-time employment and hours worked suggests solid demand for labor. That could keep underlying wage pressures supported, even as the slight dip in participation hints at some softening at the margins.

Full Australia employment release here.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel signaled that the central bank is in no rush to adjust policy, emphasizing that the current stance allows time to assess the impact of the latest energy shock. Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, she said the ECB is in a “relatively favorable” position after having brought inflation back to target before the Middle East conflict, adding that “we do not need to rush into action.”

Schnabel highlighted the complexity of the current environment. While rising energy prices could prove inflationary, the Eurozone’s status as a net energy importer means higher fuel costs may simultaneously weaken growth. That dynamic could limit firms’ ability to pass on higher costs and reduce workers’ bargaining power, creating a two-sided risk where inflation and activity move in opposite directions.

Against this backdrop, she stressed the need for caution and data dependence. Policymakers must watch closely for signs that inflation could become entrenched through second-round effects, but at the same time avoid overreacting. “We have to weigh our policy decisions very carefully,” she said, warning that the ECB must not impose an “unnecessary cost” on the economy through premature tightening.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book points to an economy that is holding up, but increasingly under strain from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Activity expanded at a "slight to modest pace" across most districts, while others reported little change or mild contraction. The overall picture suggests resilience, but with momentum slowing as firms navigate a more uncertain environment.

A key theme was the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has become a major source of uncertainty for businesses. Companies cited difficulties in planning "hiring, pricing, and capital investment", with many adopting a "wait-and-see posture". This cautious approach reflects both the unpredictability of energy prices and the broader implications for demand and supply chains.

Cost pressures are clearly building. Energy and fuel prices rose sharply across all districts, feeding through into higher transportation costs and increased prices for petroleum-based products such as plastics and fertilizers. At the same time, broader input costs—from metals affected by tariffs to technology and insurance—continued to climb. Notably, many firms reported that "input cost increases outpaced selling price growth, compressing margins".

Labor market conditions, however, remain relatively stable. Employment was "steady to up slightly", with low turnover and limited layoffs, while wage growth continued at a "modest to moderate pace". Some firms are also turning to AI-driven productivity gains to manage costs, allowing them to "delay or reduce hiring".

Full Fed's Beige Book here.

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently battling resistance at the psychological 75000 level
• A clean close above 75000 is required for the bullish scenario to continue the rally toward targets at 76400 and 78197
• The bearish scenario is triggered if Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, potentially leading to a drop to the 71673 support level

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently locked in a tug-of-war at the psychological 75000 handle. After a volatile start to the month, the premier cryptocurrency has carved out a clear recovery path, though the technical indicators suggest the journey higher may require a brief pitstop.

Daily Chart: Structural Breakout and Moving Average Support

The daily timeframe paints a picture of a successful trend reversal. After enduring a period of downward pressure characterized by a descending channel, BTC has staged a convincing breakout.

Key technical highlights on the daily:

• The MA Cluster: Bitcoin has decisively reclaimed the 50-day MA (blue) at 69679 and the 200-day MA (black) at 87339 remains a long-term target. More importantly, it is currently testing the 100-day MA (yellow) at 74924 as immediate resistance.
• Support Base: The 70000 level has now transitioned from a daunting ceiling to a significant floor.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 60, suggesting that while the trend is bullish, Bitcoin is far from "overheated", leaving the door open for a run toward the 78197 and 82133 levels.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H4 Chart: Consolidation Below the Ceiling

On the H4 chart, we can see the aggressive nature of the recent leg up. The pair surged from the 68000 zone, slicing through the 71673 level with significant volume.

However, price action has stalled over the last 24 hours just shy of the 75000 mark. We are seeing a series of "BEAR" labels on the RSI, which is currently at 57.

This cooling of momentum suggests that the market is waiting for a fresh fundamental catalyst or a period of consolidation before attempting to breach the year-to-date highs. The 50 MA (blue line) on the H4 is trending sharply upward, currently providing dynamic support at 72226.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Scenarios for the Upcoming Session

The hourly chart reveals the intraday sensitivity of Bitcoin as it trades within a narrowing range. Currently at 73918, the immediate direction will likely be determined by how price reacts to the ascending 50-day MA (blue) on this timeframe.

The Bullish Scenario

For a continuation of the rally, bulls need to defend the 73500 area. A clean hourly close above 75000 would likely trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out), potentially catapulting the pair toward the next liquidity pocket at 76400 and eventually 78197.

The Bearish Scenario

The recurring "BEAR" pivot warnings on the H1 RSI cannot be ignored. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, we could see a quick "flush" down to the 71673 support level. This would be a standard mean-reversion move to shake out late-entry long positions before a potential secondary attempt at the highs.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 75000, 76400, 78197
• Support: 73500, 71673, 70000

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin is in a "prove it" phase. While the macro structure is firmly bullish following the daily breakout, the 75000 level is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Patience may be the best tool for traders here looking for entries on a confirmed breakout or a deeper retest of support.