Sample Category Title

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.3549 is seen and the third leg of the pattern from 1.3480 and should target 1.3965 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3793 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 214.66 will extend the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. Strong resistance should be seen there to cap upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 213.25 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 211.23 support instead.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.27) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Rebound from 182.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 187.93. Above 185.77 will target a retest on 187.93 high. Nevertheless, firm break of 184.42 will suggest that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 182.01.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.51) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8863 at 0.8466. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.6108 is tentatively seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.6125. Above 1.6381 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.6416) and above. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6984) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Immediate focus is now on 0.9167 resistance as EUR/CHF's rebound from 0.9094 exrtends higher today. Firm break there will argue that fall from 0.9264 has completed as a corrective move. More important, that would argue that rise from 0.8979 is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 0.9264 first. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9167, followed by break of 0.9094, will retain the original bearish view and bring retest of 0.8979 low.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9252) suggests that the down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of another rebound.

Market Overview

The crypto market has lost around 3.5%, falling to a market capitalisation of $2.44 trillion and sharply breaking through the local support level seen in recent weeks. Technically, this is a worrying sign, as the market has fallen below the 50-day moving average, which could herald further sell-offs. The nearest potential stop is not before $2.30T. In a falling market, Stellar (+14.6%) and Basic Attention Token (+1.5%) stand out, but the third-ranked altcoin, BNB, has lost 3% over the past 24 hours. The worst performers among the most popular were Internet Computer (-9.6%), Zcash (-8.7%) and Dash (-8.7%).

Bitcoin has plummeted to $73K, a level not seen since mid-April. The bearish signal from the previous day, with the price falling below the 50-day moving average, is confirmed by market dynamics, which show that selling pressure on the leading cryptocurrency is intensifying. We have witnessed a classic victory of the long-term bearish trend, represented by the falling 200-day MA, over the short-term upward trend, represented by the 50-day MA. The outcome was not a foregone conclusion, but it seems the time for a long-term bull market has not yet come.

Ethereum has fallen below $2K, a psychologically significant round figure. Having begun its decline in early May, the second-largest coin has wiped out its April gains and once again finds itself near a multi-year support line, from which ETH rebounded at the start of the year and in April last year.

News Background

An unknown trader sold BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF shares on Tuesday for a massive $1.3 billion, Galaxy Digital notes. This led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin below $76K. Outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs have continued for seven consecutive trading sessions and remain the main threat to the leading cryptocurrency, Wintermute notes.

Bitcoin has entered a high-risk zone amid mounting selling pressure and escalating international tensions, investment firm Swissblock notes. A further negative factor has been the decline in interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“Ethereum evangelist” David Hoffman has sold all his holdings of the second-largest cryptocurrency and no longer expects it to grow significantly. In his view, ETH has failed to become the universal asset that many supporters of the project had hoped for. Meanwhile, the bulk of revenue has shifted to second-layer networks.

BitMine made the largest Ethereum purchase of the year last week. The company increased its holdings by 111,942 ETH, worth over $237 million. BitMine’s reserves exceeded 5.39 million ETH — that is 4.47% of the Ethereum supply. The company’s CEO, Tom Lee, described the fall of ETH below $2.2K as an ‘attractive opportunity’ to build up positions.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR), a layer-one blockchain positioning itself as the “blockchain for artificial intelligence”, has surged by 100% over the past month. The rally coincided with the announcement of a series of blockchain updates on privacy, cross-chain transfers, AI user data protection, and network scaling.

The market’s faith in an imminent US-Iran peace breakthrough has clearly weakened today — but it has not disappeared yet. Oil prices jumped again in after fresh military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz reignited fears of prolonged supply disruptions across the Gulf. Brent crude pushed back toward the mid-$90s after new U.S. strikes inside Iran and fresh Iranian retaliation headlines.

Yet the fact that oil still cannot convincingly break above $100 may be the single most important message markets are sending right now: traders still believe diplomacy survives, even if only barely. Markets are just being forced to confront a messier reality: diplomacy may still be alive, but it is unfolding alongside an extremely dangerous military standoff.

For now, markets appear to be interpreting the latest strikes less as preparation for outright war and more as tactical brinkmanship ahead of final negotiations. Both Washington and Tehran still seem invested in reaching some form of interim arrangement, even while using military pressure to strengthen their leverage.

That interpretation helps explain why Brent crude is rising, but not exploding. Oil is effectively acting as a real-time geopolitical probability meter. Below $100, markets are still pricing eventual de-escalation and manageable inflation consequences. A decisive break above that threshold would likely signal that investors are beginning to abandon confidence in diplomacy altogether and move toward pricing a far more dangerous stagflationary scenario.

Technically, Brent crude’s earlier selloff, while slightly deeper than expected, remains contained above the lower rising trend line of the converging triangle pattern that has been developing since the March peak at 119.50.

A short-term bottom likely formed at 91.75, suggesting some near-term consolidation may emerge. Bias nevertheless remains cautiously bearish while 38.2% retracement of 112.72 to 91.75 at 99.76 caps upside. That level, sitting just beneath the key $100 psychological threshold, is the market’s critical stress line.

A break below 91.75 would extend recent fall and target major structural support around 86.09.

Conversely, sustained break above 100 would likely signal that traders are beginning to price a structurally worse geopolitical and inflationary scenario, opening the door toward a renewed move back toward the 112 region, the falling trendline of the triangle pattern.

Overview: Gold is testing its 200-day SMA after two months of consolidation, having failed to revive bullish momentum above 5,000. As the precious metal completes its third negative month, down almost 20% from all-time highs, more losses could emerge in the short term.

Momentum: The RSI is below 50, the stochastic is pivoting south, and the MACD is strengthening its negative momentum below its red signal line, suggesting selling interest may dominate.

Bearish scenario: A decisive close below 4,350 could squeeze the price toward 4,190. Another failure there may open the door to the 4,000 level.

Risk: A bounce back above 4,500 may boost buying interest toward 4,670.

European currencies continue to trade within established ranges following the heightened volatility of recent weeks. Last week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD declined before staging a recovery; however, the pairs are once again testing important support levels without developing a sustained directional impulse. Market participants remain cautious amid the absence of fresh geopolitical catalysts and ahead of key macroeconomic data releases from the United States.

Investor attention is primarily focused on the publication of US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, GDP figures, and durable goods orders. These indicators could significantly influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for the dollar. Additional market influence is also coming from comments by Bank of England officials and European data on business activity and consumer confidence.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to display sideways dynamics within the 1.1600–1.1660 range. Technical analysis of EUR/USD points to the possibility of a retest of last week’s low near 1.1570 should 1.1600 shift into resistance territory. A resumption of upward movement would only become likely after a confident break and consolidation above 1.1660.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Italian consumer confidence index;
• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Spanish business confidence index;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

GBP/USD

Following an upward correction, GBP/USD has once again come under pressure. However, the recent low near 1.3300 remains intact, preserving the likelihood of continued range-bound trading. Technical analysis of GBP/USD indicates the possibility of a test of the nearest support zone at 1.3370–1.3390. A break below this area could lead to a decline towards 1.3300, while a confident rebound from it may return the pair to the 1.3460–1.3500 range.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 11:05 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member Sarah Breeden;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data;
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US new home sales.

Overall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to trade in conditions of range-bound price action and subdued market activity. The further direction of European currencies will depend on the release of key US economic data, comments from central bank officials, and the broader dynamics of geopolitical risks across global markets.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.