Sample Category Title

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by 1.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.54T. High-risk appetite in global markets is sustaining interest in cryptocurrencies, which is now extending beyond the top-tier coins. The day’s top performers among the most liquid coins are Theta Network (+10%), Filecoin (+7.4%) and Aptos (+6.9%). Underperforming the market are Zcash (−2.2%), Tron (+0.7%) and Dash (+1%).

Bitcoin is trading around $75K, attempting to break free from the grip of the corrective pullback and head further upwards. Current levels are slightly below the highs of the last two months, but an upward trend is evident, with gains in 9 of the last 12 days. All this, combined with the Nasdaq100’s 16% rally from its late-March lows, increases the chances of accelerated BTC growth towards the 200-day moving average at $87K.

XRP has surpassed the $1.4 mark and is attempting to consolidate above the 50-day MA on Thursday. This coin is lagging behind BTC and ETH in relative terms, but has nevertheless managed to hold key support levels, rebounding from the 200-week moving average it touched in February and finding solid support near $1.30, the region of the highs from the second half of 2021.

News Background

A negative funding rate in the derivatives market, coupled with strengthening Bitcoin prices, is creating conditions for a short squeeze, according to K33 Research. The indicator has been in negative territory for 46 consecutive days; only twice in history have such periods lasted longer.

BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, has recorded a net loss of over $9 billion over the past six months. Despite the market downturn, BitMine continues to buy up the second-largest cryptocurrency.

Goldman Sachs has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch its own Bitcoin ETF. The fund plans to invest at least 80% of its net assets in Bitcoin-linked instruments.

Prediction markets are developing rapidly, moving beyond traditional sports betting. By 2030, the combined turnover of prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi could reach $1 trillion, according to Bernstein’s forecasts.

The State Bank of Pakistan has lifted an eight-year ban on cryptocurrency transactions. Local banks can now open accounts for virtual asset service providers (VASPs) registered in the country. However, they are still prohibited from trading, holding or investing in cryptocurrencies.

• The de-escalation in the Middle East has left the dollar vulnerable.
• The Bank of England is managing rate expectations, maintaining the outlook for two hikes.

Over the past two weeks, the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since early March, giving back almost all the gains made since the start of the armed conflict in the Middle East. Talks with Iran are set to resume in the coming days. Donald Trump continues to insist that the war will end soon and that an extension of the ceasefire will not be necessary. Coupled with record highs in US stock indices, this is contributing to the continued rally in EURUSD, as geopolitics has ceased to support the greenback, bringing macroeconomics back into focus.

Investors’ attention has also shifted to corporate earnings reports and Congress’s deliberations on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for the post of Fed Chair. Contrary to Trump’s promises, the replacement of the Fed Chair may coincide with accelerating inflation driven by rising oil prices, requiring a tightening of monetary policy. What will Warsh choose? To justify the president’s trust or to demonstrate the central bank’s independence and adherence to its principles?

Investors are drawing parallels with the 1970s, when an inflationary shock amid the oil crisis saw the Fed chair, loyal to the White House, ease monetary policy. The rate cuts resulted in an even sharper rise in consumer prices and the entrenchment of high inflation expectations. At that time, the US dollar collapsed. It was only the subsequent change in the central bank chief and the aggressive tightening of monetary policy, despite the recession, that put the dollar on a path of steady growth from the summer of 1980.

Currency interventions could put pressure on the greenback. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuko Katayama has long spoken of selling USDJPY. However, following a conversation with Scott Bessent, the intensity of her pressure on speculators has increased. This suggests that the US is not opposed to intervening in the Forex market. In 1985, coordinated currency interventions led to a multi-year decline in the USD.

Other European currencies are rising in tandem with the euro. The British pound has returned to pre-war levels, partly due to the ‘hawkish’ rhetoric of Bank of England officials. Megan Green believes that the futures market’s expectations of two rate hikes in 2026 are justified. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey stated that previous market estimates of four hikes were too high.

• GBP/USD is in a vertical rally, rising marginally to a new high after upbeat UK GDP data.
• Short-term bias is positive, but caution is warranted as overbought signals emerge.
• Next resistance at 1.3665–1.3700; support at 1.3500.

GBP/USD tip-toed to a seven-week high of 1.3593 following stronger-than-expected UK GDP data for February, which showed a 0.5% m/m expansion versus forecasts of 0.1% and January’s flat reading. Despite the positive surprise, the reaction in the pair remained limited probably because the data did not capture the potential impact of the Iran war. Meanwhile, there was also a muted response to President Trump's comments that the conflict with Tehran could end soon.

Nevertheless, the bulls continue to defend the 1.3550 region, maintaining a constructive outlook and keeping the focus on a potential move toward the 1.3665–1.3700 resistance zone. The pair has already advanced around 3.3% over the past two weeks, and sustained upside momentum could pave the way toward January’s 4½-year high of 1.3868.

Technically, the short-term bias remains skewed to the upside, with both RSI and MACD trending higher. However, the stochastic oscillator is firmly in overbought territory, increasing the risk of near-term consolidation or a corrective pullback. If selling pressure emerges, a break below 1.3500 could expose the 50- and 200-day SMAs near 1.3400, with additional support seen around 1.3300–1.3340.

In brief, GBP/USD maintains a bullish short-term bias, with further gains likely as long as price action holds above the key 1.3500 level.

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1817 on Thursday, marking its ninth consecutive session of gains without interruption. The major currency pair continues to hit six-week highs. Pressure on the US dollar has intensified amid growing expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

President Donald Trump stated that the seven-week conflict is nearing its end. The White House has also expressed confidence that an agreement can be reached. Fresh face-to-face negotiations may resume in Pakistan.

Tehran is considering allowing the free passage of ships through the Omani portion of the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached, which could reduce the risks of further escalation.

Additional pressure on the dollar has come from lower energy prices, which have eased inflation fears and reduced expectations of further monetary tightening.

The broader market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this month and likely through the remainder of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around 1.1771. An upward wave continuing to 1.1877 is expected as a local target, followed by a possible downward wave to 1.1700. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting continued bullish momentum and supporting the potential for the uptrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave to the 1.1835 level. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.1795 is likely, followed by a possible rise to 1.1855, with a trend perspective towards 1.1877. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has experienced an impressive nine-session rally, driven by rising hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, which has diminished safe-haven demand for the dollar. With President Trump suggesting the seven-week conflict is near its end and Tehran considering concessions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices have fallen, easing inflation fears and reducing expectations of monetary tightening. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady. While technical indicators suggest continued upside momentum towards 1.1877, the pair may be due for a near-term correction. The trajectory ahead hinges on whether diplomatic efforts deliver a tangible agreement or disappoint markets.

Eurozone inflation accelerated sharply in March, with headline CPI finalized at 2.6% yoy, up from 1.9% in February and marking the highest level since mid-2024. The rebound reflects a renewed pickup in price pressures, largely driven by energy and services, even as underlying inflation showed signs of moderation.

The composition of inflation highlights a shift in dynamics. Services remained the largest contributor, adding 1.49 percentage points, while energy contributed 0.48 percentage points. Food, alcohol and tobacco also added 0.45 percentage points, with non-energy industrial goods contributing modestly. In contrast, core inflation edged down slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% yoy, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain contained for now.

Across the broader EU, inflation was finalized at 2.8% yoy, with significant divergence among member states. The lowest annual rates were registered in Denmark (1.0%), Czechia, Cyprus and Sweden (all 1.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (9.0%), Croatia (4.6%) and Lithuania (4.4%). Compared with February 2026, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-three.

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

The Swiss National Bank’s March meeting minutes highlight the growing influence of global risks on domestic policy, with the Middle East conflict identified as a key driver of uncertainty. Policymakers noted that the war could weigh more heavily on global activity while intensifying upward pressure on the Swiss Franc through safe-haven demand.

This dynamic was already evident in early March, when Franc climbed to an 11-year high against Euro as investors sought safety. Such strength presents a dilemma for the SNB, as it risks tightening monetary conditions and pushing inflation lower, complicating efforts to maintain price stability.

In response, the SNB reiterated that it stands ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if needed. Although the policy rate was left unchanged at 0%, officials emphasized the "willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market should remain high in order to counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland".

Full SNB minutes here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.21; (P) 215.57; (R1) 215.94; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first and some consolidations would be seen below 215.89 temporary low. Downside of retreat should be contained by 213.29 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.22; (P) 187.47; (R1) 187.83; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen below 187.68 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 184.75 resistance turned support. Above 187.68 will resume larger up trend to 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8691; (P) 0.8697; (R1) 0.8707; More…

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidations from 0.8740 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6405; (P) 1.6493; (R1) 1.6544; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside as this point. Fall from 1.6842 is in progress for retesting 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.6667 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7163) holds, even in case of strong rebound.