Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9206; (P) 0.9218; (R1) 0.9239; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in consolidation below 0.9264 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rebound from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1778; (P) 1.1793; (R1) 1.1815; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will extend the rally from 1.1408 to retest 1.2081 high. On the downside, below 1.1739 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1513). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.67; (P) 158.95; (R1) 159.26; More...

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation pattern from 160.45 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3543; (P) 1.3562; (R1) 1.3581; More...

Further rally is still expected in GBP/USD with 1.3483 minor support intact. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will extend the rise from 1.3158 to retest 1.3867 high. On the downside, below 1.3483 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7801; (P) 0.7816; (R1) 0.7835; More….

Further decline is still expected in USD/CHF with 0.7868 minor resistance intact. Fall from 0.8041 should target 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770. Decisive break there will target a retest on 0.7603 low. On the upside, above 0.7868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8071) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3715; (P) 1.3752; (R1) 1.3777; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3965 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665. Decisive break there will extend the decline from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3787 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Key takeaways

• Ceasefire optimism driving rebound: Improving prospects of a US–Iran ceasefire and reduced escalation risks have lifted sentiment, fuelling a strong recovery in the Nikkei 225 despite lingering stagflation concerns.
• Macro support from JGB yield curve steepening: Bullish steepening in Japan’s yield curve signals easing growth fears and has historically moved in tandem with equities, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the Nikkei.
• Uptrend gaining momentum near record highs: The index has rallied ~18% from late-March lows and is approaching all-time highs, with further upside likely if key support holds, while a break below support may trigger a short-term pullback.

The current US-Iran ceasefire optimism, which is now translating into a higher chance of a peace deal, has ignited the bulls in the Japanese stock market despite the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz that hinders global oil supply, which, in turn, may rouse stagflation risk.

The failure of the negotiation talks between the US and Iran over the last weekend did not lead to a further escalation of attacks by both sides, but rather some form of compromise to find a “middle ground” as the US and Iran are considering extending the earlier ceasefire deadline agreement, due on next Tuesday, 21 April, by another two weeks, and to allow make time to set up another round of negotiation talk before 21 April.

Nikkei 225 trimmed losses above the key 200-day moving average

Fig. 1: Global major benchmark stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 15 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

Since the start of the US-Iran war, the Nikkei 225 has declined by 13% from the 27 February 2026 high towards a low of 50,395 printed on 30 March 2026 while holding above its key 200-day moving average at around 48,250.

In the past five trading sessions, the losses have been trimmed, and the Nikkei 225 has now recorded a marginal loss of 1.2% measured from 27 February 2026 to 15 April 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Continuation of JGB yield curve bullish steepening has discounted stagflation fear

Fig. 2: JGB yield curves major trends with Nikkei 225 as of 16 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Since last Monday, 6 April 2026, the shorter-term (2-year) Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has declined at a faster pace (6 basis points) versus a drop of 4 bps seen the 10-year JGB yield.

Therefore, a bull steepening has occurred on the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year JGBs that led to trade higher above its key 200-day moving average, acting as a support at 0.84%, to a 15-year high at 1.05% at this time of writing.

A further continuation of a bullish steepening seen in the JGB yield curve is likely to support a further bullish impulse up move sequence in the Nikkei 225, as both move in direct lockstep since June 2022 (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).

Nikkei 225 – Oscillating within a minor ascending channel

Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 16 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The ongoing 18% rally seen from the 31 March 2026 low on the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) is now fast approaching an intermediate resistance of 59,890/60,075 (also the current all-time high printed on 26 February 2026).

Watch the 57,830/57,274 short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 60,832 and 62,044 (Fibonacci extension clusters) in the first step (see Fig. 3).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 57,274 invalidates the bullish bias for a minor corrective decline within an uptrend phase to expose the next intermediate support at 55,695 (also the 50-day moving average), and below it may see 55,130/54,600 next (also the 20-day moving average)

Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on Nikkei 225

• Price actions are trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator hit an overbought reading without a bearish divergence condition.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7131; (P) 0.7154; (R1) 0.7194; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.7187 high suggests that larger up trend is possibly resuming. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.7599. On the downside, below 0.7115 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Aussie strength is telling the story of markets today. The currency has emerged as the top performer, driven by a combination of improving global risk sentiment and robust domestic labor data, with AUD/USD rising to its highest level since late 2022 and approaching the key 0.72 resistance. The move reflects growing confidence that US-Iran tensions are moving toward de-escalation, even as talks are pushed into the weekend, while strong full-time job gains at home reinforce expectations for further RBA tightening.

On the geopolitical front, optimism remains intact despite a slight delay in the second round of US-Iran talks. While President Donald Trump had initially suggested discussions could resume “over the next two days,” the timeline has shifted toward the weekend or early next week due to logistical constraints. Importantly, markets are treating this delay as procedural rather than political, with expectations for progress largely unchanged.

Diplomatic momentum is also broadening beyond the core US-Iran channel. Trump announced that leaders of Israel and Lebanon are set to speak directly, marking a rare high-level engagement after decades of indirect contact. The move is widely seen as an attempt to secure a localized ceasefire and reduce regional tensions, while also increasing pressure on Tehran ahead of the next round of negotiations.

There are also indications that back-channel or technical discussions are taking place ahead of the main talks, aimed at building a framework and avoiding another breakdown. This layered approach to diplomacy is reinforcing the view that negotiations are entering a more constructive phase, helping to sustain risk appetite across global markets.

Equity markets are reflecting this optimism, with major S&P 500 pushing to record highs and Japan’s Nikkei following suit. The rally suggests that markets are continuing to price a favorable outcome, even as the focus shifts from anticipation to delivery. Meanwhile, Dollar remains under pressure.

Against this backdrop, Australian Dollar is emerging as the clearest expression of the risk-on shift. As a currency highly sensitive to global growth and commodities, AUD is benefiting directly from easing geopolitical risks. The move higher in AUD/USD is not just a reflection of Dollar weakness, but also a signal of improving confidence in the global outlook.

Domestic factors are adding further support. Australia’s latest employment report showed solid gains in full-time jobs, offsetting a decline in part-time roles, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The rise in hours worked reinforces the view that labor demand remains firm, pointing to underlying strength in the economy.

This combination of stable unemployment and stronger job quality strengthens the case for further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets were already pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a rate hike in May, and the latest data helps solidify that expectation. With the labor market near full employment, policymakers have room to act without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness.

For now, the balance of risks appears skewed to the upside. As long as geopolitical tensions continue to ease and domestic data remains supportive, AUD is likely to stay bid. The next catalyst will be whether upcoming US-Iran talks can deliver tangible progress, turning current optimism into a more durable trend.

In the currency markets, overall for the week so far, Aussie is currently the best performer, followed by Kiwi, and then Swiss Franc. Dollar is the worst, followed by Yen, and then Euro. Sterling and Loonie are positioning in the middle.

In Asia, Nikkei closed up 2.64%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.55%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.60%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.001 at 2.403. Overnight, DOW fell -0.15%. S&P 500 rose 0.80%. NASDAQ rose 1.59%. 10-year yield rose 0.026 to 4.282.

UK GDP Beats Expectations at 0.5% mom with Broad-Based February Growth

UK economic growth surprised to the upside in February, with GDP rising well above expectations on broad-based gains across key sectors. But beneath the headline strength, underlying trends remain uneven, with construction still dragging on the three-month outlook. Read More.

Australia's 17.9k Job Growth Driven by Full-Time Gains, Unemployment Rate Steady at 4.3%.

Australia’s labor market held steady in March, with employment rising in line with expectations and full-time jobs surging. Strong gains in hours worked point to resilient labor demand. Read more.

China's 5% GDP Growth Tops Forecasts as Supply Holds Firm, Demand Lags

China’s economy beat expectations in Q1, but weak retail sales and falling investment highlight an uneven recovery driven by supply, not demand. Read more.

Fed's Beige Book: Modest Growth Persists as Energy Shock Lifts Costs, Squeezes Margins

The Fed’s Beige Book shows an economy still growing, but under pressure. Rising energy and input costs are squeezing margins, while businesses turn to "wait-and-see" posture amid Middle East uncertainty. Read more.

ECB’s Schnabel Signals No Rush to Hike, Warns Against Premature Tightening

ECB’s Schnabel says policymakers can afford to wait, warning that premature tightening could impose unnecessary costs as energy shock creates risks for both inflation and growth. Read more.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7131; (P) 0.7154; (R1) 0.7194; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.7187 high suggests that larger up trend is possibly resuming. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.7599. On the downside, below 0.7115 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Markets

More ECB members spoke on the sidelines of the IMF/Worldbank annual spring event in Washington. In general, it stands out how the overall tone of comments softened as oil prices moved from crisis levels (>$100/b) to more bearable levels ($90-$100 area). Leaning toward an April hold seems to be the base case as things stand. ECB Kazaks put it plain and simple: he has nothing against (market) bets on two rate hikes starting in June. He doesn’t rule out April if second-round effects emerge (in the data). “Is it April or is it June? We have proved that we can move very quickly and sizably. So we’ll see.” He notices that higher yields (and some tightening of financial conditions) are doing part of the adjustment for the ECB. German BuBa president Nagel has a slightly different view. He says that and April move hinges on the Strait of Hormuz situation. Who knows what will happen in two weeks time? Just look at who quick the tables have turned over the past week. If anything, Nagel stressed that there can be no doubt that the central bank will deliver on its price stability mandate. Vigilance is warranted. On the bright side, (medium-term) inflation expectations look well anchored at the moment. Outgoing French central banker Villeroy, a more dovish profile, thinks that a focus on April would be premature. He makes a difference between a focus on the possible spillover effects on lasting inflation while also monitoring negative effects on demand and growth. By April, he suggests that the ECB won’t have the necessary critical mass of data on the twofold effect to act. Before the April 30 ECB gathering, the central bank gets monthly PMI numbers, the ECB’s consumer survey (inflation expectations), April CPI and Q1 GDP. The latter two reports are on ECB day. It’s doubtful whether this complex already provides the “sufficient” amount of evidence. Like ECB Kazaks, Villeroy points out that core CPI (in the March reading) remained limited. ECB Schnabel, the most hawkish of them all, suggested not to rush into a decision. The ECB is in a relatively favorable position, affording it to take the time that is needed in order to analyze the character of the energy shock. She’s afraid for fragile inflation expectations, but believes that weaker aggregate demand (in any case way less strong than in 2022) could slow the overall pass-through in the economy. EMU money markets currently fully discount a June rate hike, but reduced the probability of April action to 20%.

The Iran headline roulette still grabs most market attention. Gossip on an extension of the cease-fire and fresh talks between the US and Iran somewhere next week are the underlying narrative. In the meantime, the US sticks with its naval blockade of Hormuz, keeping Brent prices at $95/b. Yesterday’s stoic moves in European trading hint at some signs of fatigue. Risk sentiment in US trading was still bullish though with Nasdaq (+1.5%) outperforming and sending EUR/USD above 1.18.

News & Views

China’s economy grew by 5% y/y in Q1 of this year, marginally better than the 4.8% expected. The 1.3% quarterly pace was the quickest since 2024Q4. Looking into the accompanying monthly economic update, growth was mainly driven by the manufacturing sector. Industrial production in March rose 5.7% y/y and 6.1% YTD y/y. This compares to retail sales growth – a proxy for services & domestic demand – of 1.7% y/y and 2.4% YTD y/y. For all of the trade and geopolitical uncertainty and despite an external environment described by the National Bureau of Statistics as “severe”, China’s industrial/exporting sector is cooping well. But Iran risks loom with hampered oil supply potentially leading to broader supply chain disruption. Trade data earlier this week already showed exports having slumped over the course of March, be it from an exceptionally strong February. Other monthly data included fixed assets growth at 1.7% YTD y/y in March, marginally easing from 1.8% the month before. The property malaise continues with investments falling by 11.2% YTD y/y and residential property sales barely recovering to -18.5% YTD y/y from a 1.5 year low of -21.8% in February. The data didn’t leave a dent in USD/CNY with the pair holding steady around multiyear lows (CNY highs) of 6.818.

Australian employment grew by 17.9k in March, building on February’s 49.7k. Growth was driven by full-time employment (52.5k) with part-time jobs being shed (34.6k). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%, whilst the participation rate fell by 0.1 ppt to 66.8%. Employment-to-population stayed at 64%. Total hours worked was up 0.5%. The 0.4% rise for full-timers was supported by the 0.5% rise in the number of people employed. However, despite the 0.7% drop in the number employed, part-timers worked 0.6% more hours. This meant that part-timers had worked 1.4% more hours last month than they did in February. The Australian dollar extended its geopolitically-driven bull run this morning after the data with AUD/USD taking a shot at 0.72. That’s the strongest level since mid-2022.