Sample Category Title

GBP/USD - 1.3280

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3271

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3281

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3263

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3211

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable rebounded after finding support at 1.3240, reckon upside would be limited to yesterday’s high at 1.3321 and price should falter below indicated previous resistance at 1.3338, bring further consolidation today. Only a break above 1.3338 would signal another leg of corrective upmove from 1.3027 low is underway for further gain to 1.3350, then 1.3390-00 which is likely to hold on first testing due to near term overbought condition. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. below 1.3240 would bring pullback to 1.3215-20 but only break of minor support at 1.3196 would signal top is formed, bring further fall to 1.3170 and possibly towards 1.3150 but support at 1.3127 should hold.

EUR/USD - 1.1657

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1643

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1639

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1643

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1643

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1700, Target: 1.1595, Stop: 1.1735

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1705, Target: 1.1605, Stop: 1.1740

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Euro’s intra-day rebound has retained our view that near term sideways trading is likely to continue and although initial upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.1574 low to extend gain to 1.1670-75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1837-1.1574), as this move is still viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1700-05 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and bring retreat later, below 1.1600-05 would signal the rebound from 1.1574 low has ended, bring retest of this level first. A drop below said support at 1.1574 would extend recent decline from 1.2093 top to 1.1550-55 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.1520-25 and reckon 1.1500 would hold.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on further subsequent recovery as 1.1700-05 should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.1725 (now resistance) would signal low is formed instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.1750-55 first. 

USD/JPY - 113.93

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 113.98

Kijun-Sen level                  : 114.01

Ichimoku cloud top             : 113.61

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 113.45

Original strategy  :

Buy at 113.40, Target: 114.30, Stop: 113.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 113.40, Target: 114.30, Stop: 113.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 114.28 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below said resistance would take place and pullback to 113.60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 113.40 and bring another rise later towards indicated strong resistance at 114.45-50 but break there is needed to retain bullishness and confirm early upmove has resumed for headway to 114.75-80 and later towards 115.00 but near term overbought condition should limit upside.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar on pullback as 113.35-40 should limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 113.20 would abort and suggest an intra-day top is formed, bring weakness towards said support at 112.96 which is likely to hold from here.

The rally in DAX from 8/29 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (W) ended at 13089 and pullback to 12903 ended Intermediate wave (X). Up from there, the rally from 12903 low looks to be unfolding as an impulse. Minute wave ((i)) ended at 13066 and pullback to 12906.5 ended Minute wave ((ii)). Minute wave ((iii)) remains in progress and expected to end with one more leg higher. Afterwards, Index should pullback in Minute wave ((iv)) before another leg higher in Minute wave ((v)) of A. We don’t like selling the Index in any proposed pullback. For the impulse view to remain valid, ideally Minute wave ((iv)) pullback later should not retrace more than 50% of Minute wave ((iii)). Near term, while pullbacks stay above 12903 low, expect the Index to extend higher.

DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis

Asia Summary

During yesterday's NY session, equities ended mixed amid the release of the US Fed statement. In Asia, Nasdaq Futures have declined by over 0.2%. Shares of tech firms Facebook, Symantec and Tesla declined in the US afterhours, following their most recent earnings reports.

-As of the time of writing, equity markets are trading mixed. Financials in China and Australia are trading generally weaker, following earnings. Standard Chartered has declined by more than 5% amid weaker than expected Q3 results. National Australia Bank (NAB) has declined by over 2% after reporting FY17 cash earnings below market expectations.

At the same time, Boral, which produces building and construction materials in Australia, has gained over 3% after it said Q1 earnings were better than expected.

-In the auto sector, Honda has gained over 4% after the company reported financial results and raised its FY sales forecast. Steel maker Kobe Steel has continued to rise after the company issued its earnings report on Monday, while JFE has gained over 1% following its earnings release.

The Aussie has gained over 0.3%, following better than expected Sept Trade Balance and Building Approvals data with Sept retail sales due for release on Friday. Overall, the US dollar is trading with a generally weaker tone following the most recent FOMC statement.

At the same time, US government bond yields are lower, with Long Bond Futures up over 0.1%. Later on Thursday (at 3:00 PM EST), US President is expected to confirm that Jay Powell will be named as the next Fed Chair.

On the tax front, the US House GOP members are also expected to release their tax plan at 9:00 AM EST. The plan may include a 12% repatriation tax on cash held overseas and 5% tax for non-cash foreign holdings, according to a press report. Under the 2016 GOP tax blueprint, a tax rate of 8.75% was proposed for cash and cash equivalent profits repatriated from overseas and 3.5% on other overseas profits.

US corporate earnings expected for Thursday include, Apple. Earlier in the Asian session, retailer Costco reported better than expected Oct US SSS.

Japanese companies expected to report earnings later today include Asahi Group, Asics Corp, Furukawa Electric, Marubeni, Mazda Motor, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mitsui & Co, Nippon Sheet Glass, Renesas Electronics, Sapporo Holdings, Suntory Beverage, Suzuki Motor, Tokai Carbon and Yamaha Motor.

Key economic data

(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT TRADE BALANCE: $1.75B V $1.2BE

(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: +1.5% V -1.0%E; Y/Y: +0.2% V -2.4%E

(JP) Japan investors net sold ¥1.08T in foreign bonds v bought ¥10.9B in prior week; Foreign investors net bought ¥697B in Japan stocks v bought ¥686B in prior week; Japan sold most foreign bonds on weekly basis since April.

Speakers and Press

Japan

(JP) Japan govt reportedly plans to widen tax on foreign online retailers - Nikkei

(JP) Follow Up: Japan PM Abe seeking ¥2T supplementary budget - Japan press

Korea

(KR) North Korea said to be working on an ‘advanced' version of its KN-20 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) which could possibly reach the US – CNN

(JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Watching for possible of collapse at North Korea nuclear site

China/Hong Kong

(CN) PBoC official Zeng Hui calls for stronger regulations related to public-private partnership (PPP) projects

(HK) Hong Kong HKMA: Announces USD bonds eligible yuan liquidity facility collateral, effective immediately

(HK) Macau Oct Gaming Rev MOP22.6B, +22.1% y/y v 14.5%e (yesterday)

US

(US) President Trump to announce Fed Chairman nominee Thursday 15:00ET

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -0.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.6%; ASX200 -0.1%, Kospi -0.5%

Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.3%, Dax -0.1%; FTSE100 -0.1%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.1672-1.1614; JPY 114.21-113.73; AUD 0.7726-0.7672;NZD 0.6942-0.6883

Dec Gold +0.3% at $1,280/oz; Dec Crude Oil +0.0% at $54.30/brl; Dec Copper +0.3% at $3.15/lb

(CN) PBoC OMO: skips v injects CNY240B combined in 7-day, 14-day and 63-day reverse repos prior; Net injection CNY140B v CNY0B prior

USD/CNY *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.6196 V 6.6300 PRIOR

Equities notable movers

Australia/New Zealand

ASH.AU Reports Q1 (A$) net 1.1M v v 1.2M y/y; EBITDA 1.9M v 2.7M y/y; Rev 81.7M v 78.4M y/y – AGM; +29%

MBE.AU Guides FY18 well placed to deliver improved EBITDA y/y +14%

Japan

4091.JP Reports H1 Net ¥17.7B v ¥16.5B y/y; Op ¥29.6B v ¥26.0B y/y; Rev ¥305.7B v ¥268.8B y/y; +7.5%

7951.JP Reports H1 Net profit ¥19.6B v ¥27.2B y/y, Op profit ¥23.9B v ¥24.7B y/y, Rev ¥210B v ¥199B y/y; -10.5%

Hong Kong/China

1378.HK Chairman raises stake to 81.65%; +12%

STOCKS

Overall Global indices are looking strong and bullish for the near term. But as mentioned earlier, the exhaustion levels for the indices are not very far. We could soon see a sharp correction in the medium term.

Dow (23435.01, +0.25%) is trying to move up again after a few sessions of sideways consolidation. A rise towards 23600 and higher is on the cards for the medium term.

Dax (13465.51, +1.78%) is almost there at our target of 13500. Further upside could be limited just now as resistance above current levels could bring in some rejection as seen on the 3-day candles. Only on a break above 13500-13550 levels if seen, we would have to shift our focus towards 13800 levels. But for now, we prefer a rejection from 13500-13550 levels in the coming sessions.

Nikkei (22458.30, +0.17%) closed at higher levels today also. While the upward momentum remains intact, or target of 22666 could be tested soon. Thereafter the index is likely to see a corrective dip from there for the medium term. A failure to come off from 22666 levels would be a surprise and the index could be indicating a much larger rally than currently expected. Wait and watch crucial levels of 22666.

Shanghai (3383.40, -0.37%) has come off from levels of 3400 but is trading within the broad 3425-3360 region. A rise back towards 3425 is on the cards for the coming sessions.

Nifty (10440.50, +1.02%) has surprised in the near term by breaking above 10400. Now it could be headed towards 10500-10600 levels where it could be forming a medium term top. A corrective fall from there looks more likely.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1279.52) has started to rise from lower levels of 1263 and could possibly test 1285-1290 on the upside in the next 2-sessions. A rise towards 1300 looks likely and could be boosted by a weaker or a stable Dollar Index in the near term.

Silver (17.14) has risen sharply but could face some rejection near 17.25 or higher at 17.50 in the near term. Immediate view is bullish.

Brent (60.60) has come off slightly from 61.60 and if that holds, a sharp rejection towards 59.50 or lower is possible in the coming sessions.

WTI (54.33) is also trading lower and could come off in the near term. View looks bearish for the coming sessions.

Copper (3.1475) may rise towards 3.25 again in the next few sessions. Price looks strong just now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2841; (P) 1.2876; (R1) 1.2898; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.2916 temporary top is expecting. In case of deeper fall downside should be contained well above 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Medium term trend in USD/CAD should have reversed. Break of 1.2916 will extend the rise from 1.2061 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We'll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7649; (P) 0.7673; (R1) 0.7698; More...

AUD/USD's recovery from 0.7624 extends higher today. But still it's seen as a correction. Hence, upside should be limited well below 0.7896 resistance to bring fall resumption. Firm break of 0.7624 will resume whole decline from 0.8124 and target next key cluster level at 0.7322/8.

In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8067). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7896 near term resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1596; (P) 1.1626 (R1) 1.1648; More...

EUR/USD recovery mildly as the consolidation pattern from 1.1574 temporary low continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. As noted before, break of 1.1879 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the decline from 1.2091. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish. Below 1.1574 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9986; (P) 1.0011; (R1) 1.0059; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as the consolidation from 1.0037 is still in progress. Another fall could be seen. But still, downside should be contained above 0.9835 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Since 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990 is already met, break of 1.0037 will turn bias to the upside for 1.0342 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could is a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.